Super Rugby Aotearoa week 5, Australia Week 2
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
The big swing for me was Brumbies o29.5 arriving thanks to a well struck conversion
Here are my projected caps for next weekend - may be well out on Aussie games
Rebels -0.5 v Reds (based on fact game will be in NSW so not a home fixture for Rebels)
Crusaders -7.5 v Blues
Waratahs -8.5 v Force
Hurricanes -5.5 v Highlanders
Join the conversation - Create a forum account www.goodforthegame.co.za/Create-an-account.html
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Crusaders -7.5 v Blues (I was 7.5)
Hurricanes -10.5 v Highlanders - Highlanders plus gone 6/10 (I was -5.5)
Rebels v Reds - choice which is where I had it
Waratahs -13.5 v Force (I went -8.5), Force + now 7/10
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- threepeat
- Offline
- Posts: 376
- Thank you received: 155
Crusaders -7.5 v Blues (BG was 7.5) tabnz -7.5
Hurricanes -10.5 v Highlanders - (BG was -5.5) tabnz -5.5
Rebels v Reds - 0 (BG was -.05) tabnz -1.5
Waratahs -13.5 v Force (BG went -8.5) tabnz -8.5
BG almost identical to tabnz! TAB AU had not posted on Western Force as at this time! Cheers 3P
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- threepeat
- Offline
- Posts: 376
- Thank you received: 155
Line has moved up to -9.5 @ $1.87 since I started researching Western Force.
Western Force played only one game of Global Rapid Rugby before 2020 season was cancelled due to Covid 19.
Club rugby in Perth not exactly ideal prep for Super Rugby. A few old Wallabies are returning from Northern Hemisphere, but need way more. Old stars Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell who were still playing overseas pre-covid, have not put up their hands. No where near enough time to prepare for Super Rugby, even AU level. Veteran ex AB Thrushy, now 35, is still locking and is a spokesperson? Predicting 20+ Tahs victory, more if they get their injured backs back. Must go check massacre odds. Cheers 3P
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Stig pick: Crusaders by 11
Highlanders +5.5
Stig pick: Hurricanes by 3
Rebels -1.5
Stig pick: Rebels by 3
Force +10.5
Stig pick: Waratahs by 8
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Strong winds and 45% chance of rain predicted for Sunday's game in Wellington, Betx has got a points line of 55.5, only twice in 2020 Aotearoa scores went over this line, both were dry games in good conditions and involving the Crusaders (hur 25-39 cru rnd 2 wellington; & high 20-40 cru rnd 4 dunedin under the roof). If the weather prediction holds I will be climbing into the under 55.5.
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brad Breath
- Away
- Posts: 822
- Thank you received: 207
TheBettingStig wrote: Highlanders now +6.5 so getting better, worth waiting a bit on this.
Noted the line starting to shift, I'm in the other camp, taken Canes -5 @ 1.91
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Shazzadude
- Offline
- Posts: 75
- Thank you received: 33
Kiwi living in Australia
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- son_of_a_punt
- Offline
- Posts: 127
- Thank you received: 111
Also taking under 55.5 in saders v blues - effectively a final!
Twitter: son_of_a_punt | Time to win some beer money
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Bookie Basher
- Offline
- Posts: 290
- Thank you received: 89
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Bookie Basher
- Offline
- Posts: 290
- Thank you received: 89
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3612
- Thank you received: 1413
TheBettingStig wrote: Highlanders now +6.5 so getting better, worth waiting a bit on this.
Strong winds and 45% chance of rain predicted for Sunday's game in Wellington, Betx has got a points line of 55.5, only twice in 2020 Aotearoa scores went over this line, both were dry games in good conditions and involving the Crusaders (hur 25-39 cru rnd 2 wellington; & high 20-40 cru rnd 4 dunedin under the roof). If the weather prediction holds I will be climbing into the under 55.5.
Logic of the generally low scoring games in Aotearoa definitely makes sense re unders this weekend, but would be cautious about reading too much into weather forecasts this far ahead as a basis for unders. I don’t know why but the local NZ reputable weather sites have been wide of the mark a fair bit lately, even up to the day before game.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
southpaw wrote: Logic of the generally low scoring games in Aotearoa definitely makes sense re unders this weekend, but would be cautious about reading too much into weather forecasts this far ahead as a basis for unders. I don’t know why but the local NZ reputable weather sites have been wide of the mark a fair bit lately, even up to the day before game.
Correct it's not very reliable so far in advance. I just have memories of that strong Wellington wind, Lions Canes final 2016 comes to mind, on the day it was 49km/h and made kicking poles and touch extremely difficult. This Sunday's prediction is for 45km/h.
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3612
- Thank you received: 1413
Game is in Sydney, no home advantage for Rebels. Reds do need to fly in on day but 90min flight, no problem there.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kompos
- Offline
- Posts: 204
- Thank you received: 53
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4460
- Thank you received: 1181
kompos wrote: Has anybody been refunded their ante post bets on 2020 super rugby?
Yep - Placed with two SA books and both have refunded.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- threepeat
- Offline
- Posts: 376
- Thank you received: 155
StatsChat Tahs -7.9, Rugby4Cast Tahs by 3, RugbyVision Tahs by 6, Betting Stig Tahs +10.5
Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017. Thats what I said, Malaysian who? None of the algorithms make a disclaimer for a lack of information.
How is that possible Stig? Tahs have a got a lot of 2019 U20 Wallabies coming through and have their U20 coach as a backs coach at the Tahs. Battle ready from Reds game. Cannot see how this is not a Turkey shoot. Home advantage has got to be 7 points. Line is still -9.5. I have added some -13.5 & -20.5.
I have not done much work on the weather for Wellington yet, as tab nz does not give us a crack at unders until day before kick off.
NZ Weather forecast for Wellington for Sunday is 13%, -0- Rain, Wind 23k, possible gust 32k. Met Sevice NZ is similar.
Average wind in Wellywood is 27! Making it a great day! Cheers 3P
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- ThoughtsOnSports
- Offline
- Posts: 404
- Thank you received: 207
twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- hanrick
- Offline
- Posts: 874
- Thank you received: 401
threepeat wrote: The betting algorithms for the Tahs v Force are as follows:
StatsChat Tahs -7.9, Rugby4Cast Tahs by 3, RugbyVision Tahs by 6, Betting Stig Tahs +10.5
Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017. Thats what I said, Malaysian who? None of the algorithms make a disclaimer for a lack of information.
How is that possible Stig? Tahs have a got a lot of 2019 U20 Wallabies coming through and have their U20 coach as a backs coach at the Tahs. Battle ready from Reds game. Cannot see how this is not a Turkey shoot. Home advantage has got to be 7 points. Line is still -9.5. I have added some -13.5 & -20.5.
I have not done much work on the weather for Wellington yet, as tab nz does not give us a crack at unders until day before kick off.
NZ Weather forecast for Wellington for Sunday is 13%, -0- Rain, Wind 23k, possible gust 32k. Met Sevice NZ is similar.
Average wind in Wellywood is 27! Making it a great day! Cheers 3P
You really try to be hated by every person on the forum. So bothered with everyone else's bets. Stop worrying about other people's bets and views on the weather and concentrate in your own bets.
If you don't know the Valke you clearly don't follow South African rugby. They're a tough side.
Cheers H
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Kirky
- Offline
- Posts: 409
- Thank you received: 100
hanrick wrote:
threepeat wrote:
Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017.
Cheers 3P
If you don't know the Valke you clearly don't follow South African rugby. They're a tough side.
Cheers H
Something wrong here. Valke are a tuff SA side for sure, but a Malaysian Valke ? Can't be. Valke is an Afrikaans word so no Malaysian side would use it, would they ? Also, no SA side has played rugby in March.
But I'm in 3P's camp - I think the Tahs will take it by 13+
Maybe that Malaysian Viakiakins are an under 15 school side ?
Cheers Kirky
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Quill
- Away
- Posts: 2584
- Thank you received: 642
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- threepeat
- Offline
- Posts: 376
- Thank you received: 155
hanrick wrote:
You really try to be hated by every person on the forum. So bothered with everyone else's bets. Stop worrying about other people's bets and views on the weather and concentrate in your own bets.
If you don't know the Valke you clearly don't follow South African rugby. They're a tough side.
Cheers H
I fail to see that I have offended anyone by the text you have quoted! I have provided information on two NZ sites informative on Wellywood weather for Sunday's Canes game. They are not my opinion. They are factual.
Clearly I follow Springbok and SA Super Rugby. I remember opposing you in last years RWC when I was betting on the Springboks.
I agree that I do not follow Global Rapid Rugby or Currie Cup, preferring local Mitre 10 Competition at that level.
The only other punter voicing an opinion on the Western Force agrees with my view, he went with +15.5
I like the bet and was looking for other punters opinions for better or worse.There are a few unknowns and risks. Have no problem with anyone being critical, except with you, who chooses to make it personal. I do not remember contradicting your failure to respect Razor Robinson's Coaching and the might of the Crusaders last week. Judging by your betting madness on the Landers last week, it is in fact you who does not understand New Zealand Rugby, Players, Coaches, Crowd and Weather conditions. Cheers 3P
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Kirky
- Offline
- Posts: 409
- Thank you received: 100
Quill wrote: Easy
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Valke
Oh CRAP. My apologies everyone. And they've got a prop called Primo Ncube looks like from Namibia...
Ok, no more from me
Also gonna rethink my 13+
K.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- landrews77
- Offline
- Posts: 136
- Thank you received: 48
Agreed with Force on the plus. Australians derbies always in the 1-10 points range difference.(Most of the time)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brazil
- Offline
- Posts: 50
- Thank you received: 14
They don't reply to my query so I take it there's no refund.Thing is if they were top of he table then they might have cancelled the bets as other books have done.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Here's a handy link for New Zealand weather going forward guys, use the slider to check the cloud and rainfall systems in the upcomimg 5 days at any given time.
www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain/forecast/5-days
Looks like the heavy rains will only arrive in Wellington on Monday, have a look at Monday midday.
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Zambusta
- Offline
- Posts: 280
- Thank you received: 79
Brazil wrote: I have a couple of minor bets on Pro 14 with WSB(Cheetahs) With the restructuring they have been virtually eliminated from those top 2 spots instead of top 3 for the play-offs.
They don't reply to my query so I take it there's no refund.Thing is if they were top of he table then they might have cancelled the bets as other books have done.
I also have some long term Super Rugby bets with WSB that they are also not refunding yet...they just send the below response on email.
"Thank you for contacting WSB.
The bets still stand as there is no full feedback on the tournament, as soon as we get feedback we will result accordingly.
Please do not hesitate in contacting us should you require any further assistance."
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kompos
- Offline
- Posts: 204
- Thank you received: 53
I managed to convince those other fly-by-nights (supabets) to refund my bets - don't know why there are still bookies that think your money simply belongs to them
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- mackem
- Away
- Posts: 6604
- Thank you received: 941
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...und-2-best-bets.html
twitter: @goodforthegame
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Click here to watch on You Tube
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- mackem
- Away
- Posts: 6604
- Thank you received: 941
twitter: @goodforthegame
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
I m gonna stick with my first half being the highest scoring half @ 2
Adding Rebels + 1.5 @ 1.91 and ML @ 2.10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Shazzadude
- Offline
- Posts: 75
- Thank you received: 33
Kiwi living in Australia
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
Rebels first to 10 @ 2.20
Rebels first to 20 @ 2.28
Rebels to score first @ 1.98
All on 888
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Quill
- Away
- Posts: 2584
- Thank you received: 642
Bet 2: Rebels @2.05
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3612
- Thank you received: 1413
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Crusaders v Blues Preview
Hurricanes v Highlanders
Blues plus and Canes minus
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- mackem
- Away
- Posts: 6604
- Thank you received: 941
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html
twitter: @goodforthegame
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brad Breath
- Away
- Posts: 822
- Thank you received: 207
Betfair have some over the odds quotes on Mark Nawaqanitawase to score which I've filled up on:
Any time @ 2.10
Double @ 5.5
Hat trick @ 20 (as short as 5.5 elsewhere)
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3612
- Thank you received: 1413
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3612
- Thank you received: 1413
Waratahs over 15.5 1st half Points
Waratahs over 31.5 points
Tahs with both halves.
All 3 bets just under evens each.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Offline
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-202...betting-preview.html
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3612
- Thank you received: 1413
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
threepeat wrote: The betting algorithms for the Tahs v Force are as follows:
StatsChat Tahs -7.9, Rugby4Cast Tahs by 3, RugbyVision Tahs by 6, Betting Stig Tahs +10.5
Last game for the Force was a 51- 14 thumping of the Malaysian Valke on March 14, 2020 and they have been out of Super Rugby since 2017. Thats what I said, Malaysian who? None of the algorithms make a disclaimer for a lack of information.
How is that possible Stig? Tahs have a got a lot of 2019 U20 Wallabies coming through and have their U20 coach as a backs coach at the Tahs. Battle ready from Reds game. Cannot see how this is not a Turkey shoot. Home advantage has got to be 7 points. Line is still -9.5. I have added some -13.5 & -20.5.
giphy.com/gifs/burgerrecords-whites-of-t...9D4dI7I2EBeTY2c?tc=1
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- coil
- Away
- Posts: 1336
- Thank you received: 466
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- threepeat
- Offline
- Posts: 376
- Thank you received: 155
threepeat wrote: Decent strike on Tahs -8.5 @ $1.73
Betting Stig wrote giphy.com/gifs/burgerrecords-whites-of-t...9D4dI7I2EBeTY2c?tc=1
This is a clear and obvious breach of GFTG ethical standards against personal attacks / blog bullying. Maybe acceptable in clicky SA, but not on a show that aspires to attract international punters and a variety of opinions.
Game itself was much closer than expected but mainly because Tahs were poor.
As a statistician Stig you have chosen to throw eggs (very childish and inappropriate behaviour) but being a statistician your simple math should be far better. My main bet of Stike on Tahs -8.5 landed nicely Covered smaller bets with a nice in game strike on Tahs -.05 when the score was Tahs 7 - 14.
Stig, my original post was merely an inquiry about the methodology of algorithms when you have limited information. I noted that all four algorithms came up with the same. There was no intention to Stigmatize you. It was an ask for information/ help. Frankly, your egg throwing behaviour is mysterious (will work om whose alta-ego you are).
Hanrick I see you choose to applaud. How is that going for you from inside your glass house?, from which you achieved the Grand Slam of Losses in Super Rugby Aotearoa/ AU in Round 4/1. Yes 0-4, recorded on tape! No picks this week for anyone to egg!
SOAP, lads I see you have joined the inappropriate chorus. My posts on HUMIDITY in Dunedin and Canberra being a NIGHT game were factually correct. You had posted mis-information in both cases, and due to your exceptional record in 7's punting I was concerned that some punters would follow without knowing the real info. I was helping you. Yet, you are still bragging about your overs win in Canberra, even though you called it on the basis of a day game.
Titiro whakamuri, Kokiri whakamua Cheers 3P
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
For the algorithm's prediction on the Tahs game,
I used information on the Force as per Rugbypass player and team ratings and weighted it with a couple of other factors. Not great but better than nothing.
Note, the algorithm called 2 games on the dot, and the others within 1 and 3. So it's pretty accurate at this stage..
Crusaders by 10 (actual 11)
Rebels by 3 (actual 0)
Waratahs by 9 (actual 9)
Hurricanes by 6 (actual 6)
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.