Super Rugby AU week 8, Pro 14, Eng Prem 21-23 August

Waratahs +8.5 as one handicap play for me. Will focus rest of attention to points. Tahs have been solid so far in SR AU beating 4/5 handicaps. Brumbies haven't impressed me.

Gallagher Premiership (performance 22/36 = 61%)

Going to try my hand at handicap projections this week.

Sale (+10.5) v Exeter
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath

An interesting article below on the welsh regions Pro 14 teams.

www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-...st-xvs-show-18753389

Basically for those who don't have time to read it. The Scarlets now have arguably the best squad in Wales and one of the best in the competition, whilst Cardiff have the weakest.

I am having an early bet on Scarlets (-7) v Cardiff @ 1.91.

Thanks BS for your caps
I put mine as well and for most he games I agree but I think the bookies will be less generous in favour of Exeter and more for Saracens
Need to keep in mind that teams will be playing 3 games in 10 days from this round – I put the next 2 rounds for awareness as there should be some turnover – can’t see players having to play 3 games after 5 months without a single game

Sale (+10.5) v Exeter (+2.5)
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol (-3.5)
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester (-15.5)
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins (-9.5)
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton (+7.5)
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath (-2.5)

R16
Wasps vs Sale
Bristol vs Exeter
Leicester vs London Irish
Saracens vs Gloucester
Worcester vs Harlequins
Northampton vs Bath

R17
Sale vs Bristol
Harlequins vs Northampton
Exeter vs Worcester
Gloucester vs Leicester
London Irish vs Saracens
Bath vs Wasps

Early plays for me:

Bears -2.5 vs Gloucester
Saints -2.5 vs LI
Warriors +14.5 vs Wasps

TheBettingStig wrote: Gallagher Premiership (performance 22/36 = 61%)

Going to try my hand at handicap projections this week.

Sale (+10.5) v Exeter
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath

hi there BettingStig - these projections. are you using an algorithm?
If you do, do you know of anyone else that uses algorithms for N Hemisphere rugby .
Thanks

Bertie

kompos wrote:

TheBettingStig wrote: Gallagher Premiership (performance 22/36 = 61%)

Going to try my hand at handicap projections this week.

Sale (+10.5) v Exeter
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath

hi there BettingStig - these projections. are you using an algorithm?
If you do, do you know of anyone else that uses algorithms for N Hemisphere rugby .
Thanks

Bertie

Hey Bertie, yeah these are from my algorithm but they are not the final lines, just initial handicap projections. My final lines will come out after team announcements.

As far as I know I am the only algorithm that attempts to outperform vs the bookie handicaps. And the algorithm does have a success rate of a touch over 61% across several tournaments and more than 200 games.

The other publicly available algorithms giving NH lines currently that I am aware of are Rugby4Cast, Rugbyvision, Statschat & Sportspunter.

www.rugby4cast.com/
www.rugbyvision.com/
www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/
www.sportspunter.com/servlet/tipping.PuntersParadise

But be warned, although these guys do quite well on the outrights, they dont target handicaps and so they usually only deliver around 45% success rate against the handicaps. I measure and report on this weekly on twitter.

Others that I am aware of but that do not currently publish NH picks are ASAP & Footyforecaster.

www.asapindex.com/formpredictor/rugby/francetop14.html
footyforecaster.com/Super_Rugby/RoundForecast/2020_Round_7

Follow me om Twitter to get tips, lines, and market analysis first!

Pro14 Rnd 14 (Performance 54/89 = 61%)

Benneton 9.5 vs Zebre
Stig line: 7
Tip: Zebre plus 10.5 @ 0.90 WSB

Scarlets 7.5 vs Cardiff
Stig line: 10
Tip: Scarlets minus 6.5 @ 0.78 Gbets

Edinburgh 4.5 vs Glasgow
Stig line: 10
Tip: Edinburgh minus 4.5 @ 0.90 WSB

Leinster 8.5 vs Munster
Stig line: 7
Tip: Munster plus 9.5 @ 0.90 WSB

Ospreys 5.5 vs Dragons
Stig line: 3
Tip: Dragons plus 6.5 @ 0.90 WSB

Connacht vs Ulster -6.5
Stig line: -3
Tip: Connacht plus 6.5 @ 0.90 WSB

Thanks for your answer, BettinStig - I'll "follow you on twitter", whatever that means

Really like Dragons +7.5 vs Ospreys this weekend. Dragons have a strong back row of Moriaty and Wainwright and have added ex-Saracens centre Nick Tompkins (whom I highly rate) and Jamie Roberts to their midfield ranks.

My other Pro 14 plays so far include:
Scarlets -6.5
Munster +9.5.

Eyeing out Bath outright vs the Tigers this week. Bath have an unbelievable side and I am surprised they are underdogs given the fact that home ground advantage is nullified.

Just been reading those rules regarding the Gallagher Premiership so putting them here as quite important

- No player will play more than 180 mins if selected in a matchday squad 3 times in a week
- No player will start all 3 games in a week
- No player will be selected in more than 6 matches in the 7 games between 14 Aug-13 Sept

bradie82 wrote: Just been reading those rules regarding the Gallagher Premiership so putting them here as quite important

- No player will play more than 180 mins if selected in a matchday squad 3 times in a week
- No player will start all 3 games in a week
- No player will be selected in more than 6 matches in the 7 games between 14 Aug-13 Sept

All the more reason why team sheets will be vital. Early punts are dangerous. Keep a close eye on money moves after team announcements, will be a good indication.

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Really like Dragons +7.5 vs Ospreys this weekend. Dragons have a strong back row of Moriaty and Wainwright and have added ex-Saracens centre Nick Tompkins (whom I highly rate) and Jamie Roberts to their midfield ranks.

My other Pro 14 plays so far include:
Scarlets -6.5
Munster +9.5.

Eyeing out Bath outright vs the Tigers this week. Bath have an unbelievable side and I am surprised they are underdogs given the fact that home ground advantage is nullified.

Agree on Scarlets and have updated the system following team info which swayed my numbers.

Taking some Connacht + 6.5 @ 1.92 on Sportnation

Henderson, Addison, Reidy and Baloucoune are out for Ulster + BS algorithm is going into that direction

Two strikes for me so long on the weekend:

Edinburgh -3.5. Crucial game to try and secure a home semi final. Also the final of the 1876 cup. Edi been playing good rugby pre break and news that Huw Jones starting at 15 for Glasgow. Nakarawa also still stuck in Fiji.

Northampton-1.5 HT. Stats show saints normally get off to fast starts. Can’t see Boyd fielding a weak team as Saints desperate for a win and been on a bad run last couple of games. Enough class in that side for me.

Also liking Scarlets. Pity they’ll be missing Davies and Liam Williams contract seems to be an issue and might not play.

Firmly aligned with BDub there.

If team news holds true, that Saints FH cap is a beauty.

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Waratahs +8.5 as one handicap play for me. Will focus rest of attention to points. Tahs have been solid so far in SR AU beating 4/5 handicaps. Brumbies haven't impressed me.

I took some of this too (best I could find +7.5 though) and I see Brumbies have rotated almost their whole pack.

Agree with both you on the Saints and with a dry forecast ahead, that should help but they need to fix their scrum half issue
Rona, Kepu and Rogerson are all doubtful for LI so taking some H

Saints -2.5 @ 1.88 on 888

Gloucester v Bristol - 7 changes for Bristol in total. Did a run through side, compared man vs man vs Gloucester, i think the hosts have the upperhand in a number of key areas.

Bristol in great form, but siding with the home side, even without crowd, to take this local derby.

Gloucester +2.5 @ 17/20

Zebre +10.5 @ 1.71 on 888

Not sure why Benetton has so many players out for this game but looking at the list and the fact that those Italian derby are most of the time ending with less than 10 points difference, I m giving it a go

Players out for Benetton : Allan, Faiva, Herbst, Ioane, Negri, Pasquali, Ratuva, Snyman, Zani

Gallagher Premiership (performance 22/36 = 61%)

Sale v Exeter -2.5
S-line: -6
Bet minus

Gloucester v Bristol -1.5
S-line: 0
Bet plus

Wasps 16.5 v Worcester
S-line: 13
Bet plus

London Irish v Northampton -2.5
S-line: -5
Bet minus

Leicester v Bath -1.5
S-line: -4
Bet minus

Saracens v Harlequins
Cap not out yet

Thoroughly enjoyed Bradie on the Handicap. - great addition.

Taken under 6.5 tries in Force - Reds. Opting for this instead of total points as Force have the tendency to go for 3s.

Brent Graham wrote: Top class Bradie great having you on

Here is the Podcast

was hoping to find subtitles

Great show last night lads , great debut run Bradie !!
I'm in two minds this morning , main bet under 49.5 points and hunting for the unders try market where I'll go under 5.5 and 6.5 tries.

Was considering the Force plus full but instead will have an interest H T plus 6.5.

4 Leg Multi - 3 Coaches & SR AU Unders Bet @ 13.07 $ xx

Under (48.5) @ 1.85 Total Points Western Force v Red

Scarlets (-8.5) @ 1.92 Points Start Scarlets v Cardiff Blues

Bristol@ 1.77 Head To Head Gloucester v Bristol

Leicester @ 2.08 Head To Head Leicester v Bath

Potential Return $ xxx Cheers 3P

PS: No confidence after Sale Springboks & Chris Boyd coached Saints both failed me last week.

echo other comments, great international addition to the show last night.

This am, just one for me, solid start from Force expected -

Force over 8.5 1st half pts @ 19/20

Quick update based on the squad just announced
I m gonna cashout my bet on the Tigers - this is a second hand team vs a strong Bath squad - value is on Bath

That was ugly to say the least , at HT I was counting the loot with regard totals and tries ;(

bradie82 wrote: Quick update based on the squad just announced
I m gonna cashout my bet on the Tigers - this is a second hand team vs a strong Bath squad - value is on Bath

Agreed, got some Bath win at 1.73, its now melting quickly....

Sale vs Exeter
Over 41.5 @ 1.75
Expect Sale to improve vs last week, 2 teams with strong attacking skills and forecast should be dry but windy

Sale vs Exeter

Value is Sharks on the board here, wouldn't bother with the h'cap as it stands.
Sale looked poor against a crafty and erratic quins side, however these two have very similar styles, power and territory.
I'm expecting Tuilagi to enjoy this type of game, and Exter without O'flaherty always look out of sorts in the back.

Saracens 7.5 v Harlequins
Stig line: 10
Bet minus

What is the odds on the Sale Saffas "taking the knee" tonight?

I reckon Exeter are too well coached and consistent to get beat tonight. Sale might well put up a massive fight, but my money will be on Exeter to get the job done by 1 -12.

Small double for me tonight:

Bristol win into Worcester +17 @ 3.60

Brad Breath wrote: Small double for me tonight:

Bristol win into Worcester +17 @ 3.60

Congrats on winning this double in the 30th minute of respective matches already

London Irish vs Saints
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.61

Sunny day in London tomorrow with a bit of wind - no brainer with those 2 teams

bradie82 wrote: London Irish vs Saints
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.61

Sunny day in London tomorrow with a bit of wind - no brainer with those 2 teams

Adding the over 44.5 @ 1.70

Experienced Novice wrote:

Brad Breath wrote: Small double for me tonight:

Bristol win into Worcester +17 @ 3.60

Congrats on winning this double in the 30th minute of respective matches already

Lol cheers mate was a belting start, but a bet is never won until the FT whistle blows

Re Glos v Bristol I agree with South's view that Glos the stronger team, man for man.
But superior coaching the clear difference.
Pat Lam must be one of the best coaches on the planet - perhaps rivalled only by Razor Robertson at building an epic culture.
Having Radradra doesn't hurt either

Very cold in Canberra, the coldest day in four years they say, high (70%) chance of showers. Small hail or sleet is possible.

As Hanrick said, best bet of the weekend:

Bet 1: Total points Under 43.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total tries Under 5.5 @1.87
Bet 3: Waratahs +5.5 @1.90

Against the grain a bit here, like the Brumbies bench to make a difference and hoping the cap can be covered -

Brumbies -4.5 @ 9/10

Seems like value
Tahs over 19.5 @ 8/10

Saracens vs Quins
Quins under 21.5 @ 1.90

This Tahs team put 40 points on the Reds and then serve up that steaming pile of turd!
Just horrendous, particularly in the 2nd half.

I'm against the grain a bit on the Scarlets v Blues later, dont think there is much between these 2 teams.
Particularly with new coach Delaney at the Scarlets, just think they may take a game or 2 to get up to speed.
Bettting Blues +8 @ 1.91