Super Rugby AU week 8, Pro 14, Eng Prem 21-23 August
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Away
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Here are my handicap projections for the Aussie games
Force +9.5 v Reds
Brumbies -5.5 v Waratahs
We can also cover all Euro rugby on this thread
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- ThoughtsOnSports
- Offline
- Posts: 404
- Thank you received: 207
twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Going to try my hand at handicap projections this week.
Sale (+10.5) v Exeter
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Dizzle
- Offline
- Posts: 36
- Thank you received: 10
www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-...st-xvs-show-18753389
Basically for those who don't have time to read it. The Scarlets now have arguably the best squad in Wales and one of the best in the competition, whilst Cardiff have the weakest.
I am having an early bet on Scarlets (-7) v Cardiff @ 1.91.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
I put mine as well and for most he games I agree but I think the bookies will be less generous in favour of Exeter and more for Saracens
Need to keep in mind that teams will be playing 3 games in 10 days from this round – I put the next 2 rounds for awareness as there should be some turnover – can’t see players having to play 3 games after 5 months without a single game
Sale (+10.5) v Exeter (+2.5)
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol (-3.5)
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester (-15.5)
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins (-9.5)
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton (+7.5)
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath (-2.5)
R16
Wasps vs Sale
Bristol vs Exeter
Leicester vs London Irish
Saracens vs Gloucester
Worcester vs Harlequins
Northampton vs Bath
R17
Sale vs Bristol
Harlequins vs Northampton
Exeter vs Worcester
Gloucester vs Leicester
London Irish vs Saracens
Bath vs Wasps
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- ThoughtsOnSports
- Offline
- Posts: 404
- Thank you received: 207
Bears -2.5 vs Gloucester
Saints -2.5 vs LI
Warriors +14.5 vs Wasps
twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kompos
- Offline
- Posts: 204
- Thank you received: 53
TheBettingStig wrote: Gallagher Premiership (performance 22/36 = 61%)
Going to try my hand at handicap projections this week.
Sale (+10.5) v Exeter
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath
hi there BettingStig - these projections. are you using an algorithm?
If you do, do you know of anyone else that uses algorithms for N Hemisphere rugby .
Thanks
Bertie
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
kompos wrote:
TheBettingStig wrote: Gallagher Premiership (performance 22/36 = 61%)
Going to try my hand at handicap projections this week.
Sale (+10.5) v Exeter
Gloucester (-3.5) v Bristol
Wasps (-15.5) v Worcester
Saracens (-5.5) v Harlequins
London Irish (+6.5) v Northampton
Leicester (-3.5) v Bath
hi there BettingStig - these projections. are you using an algorithm?
If you do, do you know of anyone else that uses algorithms for N Hemisphere rugby .
Thanks
Bertie
Hey Bertie, yeah these are from my algorithm but they are not the final lines, just initial handicap projections. My final lines will come out after team announcements.
As far as I know I am the only algorithm that attempts to outperform vs the bookie handicaps. And the algorithm does have a success rate of a touch over 61% across several tournaments and more than 200 games.
The other publicly available algorithms giving NH lines currently that I am aware of are Rugby4Cast, Rugbyvision, Statschat & Sportspunter.
www.rugby4cast.com/
www.rugbyvision.com/
www.statschat.org.nz/author/david-scott/
www.sportspunter.com/servlet/tipping.PuntersParadise
But be warned, although these guys do quite well on the outrights, they dont target handicaps and so they usually only deliver around 45% success rate against the handicaps. I measure and report on this weekly on twitter.
Others that I am aware of but that do not currently publish NH picks are ASAP & Footyforecaster.
www.asapindex.com/formpredictor/rugby/francetop14.html
footyforecaster.com/Super_Rugby/RoundForecast/2020_Round_7
Follow me om Twitter to get tips, lines, and market analysis first!
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Benneton 9.5 vs Zebre
Stig line: 7
Tip: Zebre plus 10.5 @ 0.90 WSB
Scarlets 7.5 vs Cardiff
Stig line: 10
Tip: Scarlets minus 6.5 @ 0.78 Gbets
Edinburgh 4.5 vs Glasgow
Stig line: 10
Tip: Edinburgh minus 4.5 @ 0.90 WSB
Leinster 8.5 vs Munster
Stig line: 7
Tip: Munster plus 9.5 @ 0.90 WSB
Ospreys 5.5 vs Dragons
Stig line: 3
Tip: Dragons plus 6.5 @ 0.90 WSB
Connacht vs Ulster -6.5
Stig line: -3
Tip: Connacht plus 6.5 @ 0.90 WSB
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kompos
- Offline
- Posts: 204
- Thank you received: 53
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- ThoughtsOnSports
- Offline
- Posts: 404
- Thank you received: 207
My other Pro 14 plays so far include:
Scarlets -6.5
Munster +9.5.
Eyeing out Bath outright vs the Tigers this week. Bath have an unbelievable side and I am surprised they are underdogs given the fact that home ground advantage is nullified.
twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
- No player will play more than 180 mins if selected in a matchday squad 3 times in a week
- No player will start all 3 games in a week
- No player will be selected in more than 6 matches in the 7 games between 14 Aug-13 Sept
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
bradie82 wrote: Just been reading those rules regarding the Gallagher Premiership so putting them here as quite important
- No player will play more than 180 mins if selected in a matchday squad 3 times in a week
- No player will start all 3 games in a week
- No player will be selected in more than 6 matches in the 7 games between 14 Aug-13 Sept
All the more reason why team sheets will be vital. Early punts are dangerous. Keep a close eye on money moves after team announcements, will be a good indication.
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Really like Dragons +7.5 vs Ospreys this weekend. Dragons have a strong back row of Moriaty and Wainwright and have added ex-Saracens centre Nick Tompkins (whom I highly rate) and Jamie Roberts to their midfield ranks.
My other Pro 14 plays so far include:
Scarlets -6.5
Munster +9.5.
Eyeing out Bath outright vs the Tigers this week. Bath have an unbelievable side and I am surprised they are underdogs given the fact that home ground advantage is nullified.
Agree on Scarlets and have updated the system following team info which swayed my numbers.
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
Henderson, Addison, Reidy and Baloucoune are out for Ulster + BS algorithm is going into that direction
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- BDub
- Offline
- Posts: 107
- Thank you received: 63
Edinburgh -3.5. Crucial game to try and secure a home semi final. Also the final of the 1876 cup. Edi been playing good rugby pre break and news that Huw Jones starting at 15 for Glasgow. Nakarawa also still stuck in Fiji.
Northampton-1.5 HT. Stats show saints normally get off to fast starts. Can’t see Boyd fielding a weak team as Saints desperate for a win and been on a bad run last couple of games. Enough class in that side for me.
Also liking Scarlets. Pity they’ll be missing Davies and Liam Williams contract seems to be an issue and might not play.
Follow me on Twitter - @BrendonWessels
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- ThoughtsOnSports
- Offline
- Posts: 404
- Thank you received: 207
If team news holds true, that Saints FH cap is a beauty.
twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brad Breath
- Offline
- Posts: 822
- Thank you received: 207
ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Waratahs +8.5 as one handicap play for me. Will focus rest of attention to points. Tahs have been solid so far in SR AU beating 4/5 handicaps. Brumbies haven't impressed me.
I took some of this too (best I could find +7.5 though) and I see Brumbies have rotated almost their whole pack.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
Rona, Kepu and Rogerson are all doubtful for LI so taking some H
Saints -2.5 @ 1.88 on 888
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- mackem
- Offline
- Posts: 6602
- Thank you received: 941
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...und-8-best-bets.html
twitter: @goodforthegame
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Away
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3611
- Thank you received: 1411
Bristol in great form, but siding with the home side, even without crowd, to take this local derby.
Gloucester +2.5 @ 17/20
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
Not sure why Benetton has so many players out for this game but looking at the list and the fact that those Italian derby are most of the time ending with less than 10 points difference, I m giving it a go
Players out for Benetton : Allan, Faiva, Herbst, Ioane, Negri, Pasquali, Ratuva, Snyman, Zani
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Away
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Also joining me are Oracle and Couch
Click here to watch on You Tube
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Sale v Exeter -2.5
S-line: -6
Bet minus
Gloucester v Bristol -1.5
S-line: 0
Bet plus
Wasps 16.5 v Worcester
S-line: 13
Bet plus
London Irish v Northampton -2.5
S-line: -5
Bet minus
Leicester v Bath -1.5
S-line: -4
Bet minus
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Cap not out yet
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Away
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brent Graham
- Topic Author
- Away
- Posts: 4850
- Thank you received: 1057
Newsletter out in the next 2 hours - sign up for free here
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- ThoughtsOnSports
- Offline
- Posts: 404
- Thank you received: 207
Taken under 6.5 tries in Force - Reds. Opting for this instead of total points as Force have the tendency to go for 3s.
twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- kompos
- Offline
- Posts: 204
- Thank you received: 53
Brent Graham wrote: Top class Bradie great having you on
Here is the Podcast
was hoping to find subtitles
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- coil
- Online
- Posts: 1333
- Thank you received: 466
I'm in two minds this morning , main bet under 49.5 points and hunting for the unders try market where I'll go under 5.5 and 6.5 tries.
Was considering the Force plus full but instead will have an interest H T plus 6.5.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- threepeat
- Offline
- Posts: 376
- Thank you received: 155
Under (48.5) @ 1.85 Total Points Western Force v Red
Scarlets (-8.5) @ 1.92 Points Start Scarlets v Cardiff Blues
Bristol@ 1.77 Head To Head Gloucester v Bristol
Leicester @ 2.08 Head To Head Leicester v Bath
Potential Return $ xxx Cheers 3P
PS: No confidence after Sale Springboks & Chris Boyd coached Saints both failed me last week.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3611
- Thank you received: 1411
This am, just one for me, solid start from Force expected -
Force over 8.5 1st half pts @ 19/20
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
I m gonna cashout my bet on the Tigers - this is a second hand team vs a strong Bath squad - value is on Bath
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- coil
- Online
- Posts: 1333
- Thank you received: 466
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brad Breath
- Offline
- Posts: 822
- Thank you received: 207
bradie82 wrote: Quick update based on the squad just announced
I m gonna cashout my bet on the Tigers - this is a second hand team vs a strong Bath squad - value is on Bath
Agreed, got some Bath win at 1.73, its now melting quickly....
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
Over 41.5 @ 1.75
Expect Sale to improve vs last week, 2 teams with strong attacking skills and forecast should be dry but windy
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- chrismcgowan2411
- Offline
- Posts: 4
- Thank you received: 1
Value is Sharks on the board here, wouldn't bother with the h'cap as it stands.
Sale looked poor against a crafty and erratic quins side, however these two have very similar styles, power and territory.
I'm expecting Tuilagi to enjoy this type of game, and Exter without O'flaherty always look out of sorts in the back.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- TheBettingStig
- Offline
- Posts: 79
- Thank you received: 56
Stig line: 10
Bet minus
Twitter @BettingStig
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Experienced Novice
- Offline
- Posts: 154
- Thank you received: 80
I reckon Exeter are too well coached and consistent to get beat tonight. Sale might well put up a massive fight, but my money will be on Exeter to get the job done by 1 -12.
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brad Breath
- Offline
- Posts: 822
- Thank you received: 207
Bristol win into Worcester +17 @ 3.60
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Experienced Novice
- Offline
- Posts: 154
- Thank you received: 80
Brad Breath wrote: Small double for me tonight:
Bristol win into Worcester +17 @ 3.60
Congrats on winning this double in the 30th minute of respective matches already
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.61
Sunny day in London tomorrow with a bit of wind - no brainer with those 2 teams
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
bradie82 wrote: London Irish vs Saints
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.61
Sunny day in London tomorrow with a bit of wind - no brainer with those 2 teams
Adding the over 44.5 @ 1.70
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brad Breath
- Offline
- Posts: 822
- Thank you received: 207
Experienced Novice wrote:
Brad Breath wrote: Small double for me tonight:
Bristol win into Worcester +17 @ 3.60
Congrats on winning this double in the 30th minute of respective matches already
Lol cheers mate was a belting start, but a bet is never won until the FT whistle blows
Re Glos v Bristol I agree with South's view that Glos the stronger team, man for man.
But superior coaching the clear difference.
Pat Lam must be one of the best coaches on the planet - perhaps rivalled only by Razor Robertson at building an epic culture.
Having Radradra doesn't hurt either
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Quill
- Away
- Posts: 2584
- Thank you received: 642
As Hanrick said, best bet of the weekend:
Bet 1: Total points Under 43.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total tries Under 5.5 @1.87
Bet 3: Waratahs +5.5 @1.90
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- southpaw
- Offline
- Posts: 3611
- Thank you received: 1411
Brumbies -4.5 @ 9/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- The Vann
- Offline
- Posts: 4460
- Thank you received: 1181
Tahs over 19.5 @ 8/10
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- bradie82
- Offline
- Posts: 881
- Thank you received: 406
Quins under 21.5 @ 1.90
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
- Brad Breath
- Offline
- Posts: 822
- Thank you received: 207
Just horrendous, particularly in the 2nd half.
I'm against the grain a bit on the Scarlets v Blues later, dont think there is much between these 2 teams.
Particularly with new coach Delaney at the Scarlets, just think they may take a game or 2 to get up to speed.
Bettting Blues +8 @ 1.91
Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.