Rugby 28 Sep to 4 Oct: Premiership, Pro 14 wk 1, Top 14, Mitre 10 Cup

Some of the lines up are out in Miter 10 Cup. Otago puts on the same team as last week, just Liam Coltman is on the bench which is a bit of a hassle.

There are a lot of rotations in Southland. Greg Pleasants Tate is not on the scoresheet, like 2nd row Mike Mckee. Logan Crowley and Scott Eade are on the bench.

Ospreys +13.5 strong bet for me, not the best Edinbourgh squad and Ospreys stronger than last year.

Adding on Connacht ML, way stronger XV + home

Rubber stamping the +13.5.

All over it!

Canterbury vs Wellington

Even without the All Blacks, Wellington's squad looks more impressive with their Super Rugby players and Julian Savea back.

Bet 1: Wellington +1.5 @1.87, bet365
Bet 2: Wellington Team Total Points Over 25.5 @1.88, sportsbet.com.au

Scarlets vs Munster:

Strong strike on either team to win by 7 or less at 1/1.

I already have 2 units down on Munster outright but this is nice cover. Wet in Llanelli so expect low scoring and pens to be traded.

SA green v gold - over 57.5pts @ 8/11

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Scarlets vs Munster:

Strong strike on either team to win by 7 or less at 1/1.

I already have 2 units down on Munster outright but this is nice cover. Wet in Llanelli so expect low scoring and pens to be traded.

Similar thoughts here but instead going on More converted penalties than tries @2.50

Springbok Green vs Gold:

First scoring play: Try Gold @ 2.5/1

southpaw wrote: SA green v gold - over 57.5pts @ 8/11

taken some more @ just under 9/10.

Firmly in the opposite camp on points.

Under 59.5 is golden!

Leicester Tigers -0.5 at 0.93 for a nice strike.

a very tempting middle as can get under 69.5 but will sit on the over 57.5, especially as Peyper in charge, usually good for overs.

Yes lovely middle there South , under 70.5 for me though , hoping it is scrappy at some stage and it Newlands after all.

Have backed Munster at 9/10 for smalls and covered with the draw .

Looking for best unders in Edinburgh game, hoping for 36.5 or better .

called this badly wrong, being played like a test. Bailed half stake @ under 57.5 @ 16min but already regretting not full stake.

The stones on Ben Healy to nail winning kick at Llanelli. Sluggish from Munster for long periods but got the job done. We need Snyman to heal good and heal quick.

For Southland / Waikato, i go with :
Neither team to 30 @1.66

As usual, the weather is bad in Invercargill for tomorrow's game. It is announced that rain with wind. Southland played two games under these conditions: 16-10 victory over Hawke's Bay and 11-10 victory over North Harbor. The evening opponent is better, namely Waikato. They started the season well with two big wins against Wellington 53-28 and 41-19 against North Harbor, helped by their All Blacks Damian McKenzie who was fantastic in these two matches, and Anton Liebert Brown. Without their All Blacks, it was more in Tasman, the best team in the competition. For this match, the coach decided to do some rotations. The 9/10 pair of halves who impressed a lot from the start, Xavier Roe (electric scrum half) and Fletcher Smith will be on the bench, we have a new pair of 9/10. Plus, and a big blow, Quinn Tapea won't make the trip. We have significant rotations, but the bench is good. In Southland also we do rotations. Compared to the first games, we can note that: Crowley and Eade are on the bench, Mike Mckee is not in the second row and Greg Pleasants Tate is not present. With these conditions, I think it will be difficult to play good rugby, the conditions are suitable for Southland who likes tight play and not the fast-pace games.

Perpignan vs Stade Montois, French Pro D2
Perpignan -2.5 Most Tries Handicap @2 Bet365

Stade Montois has decided that many regular starters will not even come to Perpignan. Laval, David, Cedaro, Garrault, Montagner, Goneva, Desaubies and Laousse-Azpiazu, very busy during the first three rounds, are thus left to rest. Mont de Marsan will play Grenoble on October 8, a game they have aimed for because they do not want to lose a second time at home this season. Several players will make their first appearance of the season: winger Lestremeau, center Gelin as well as two young players who arrived in the offseason, hooker Hugo Alamartine and right pillar Alexandre Lalanne, who will make their Pro D2 debut at Aimé - Giral stadium. Note that the Murusidze (ribs) and Macharashvili (shoulder) two props joined Loustalot, Innnocente, Smaili, Hezard and Vakacegu in the infirmary. As for Naituvi, he received a three-game suspension this week after his red card against Vannes, and will therefore miss this trip to Perpignan and the reception of Grenoble.

I think it's a good opportunity for Perpignan to take the bonus point offensive here. They are 7th before this late match, in case of victory with a bonus point offensive they will be on the top of the ladder. They started well with two victories (against Rouen and Carcassonne) and a defeat at Biarritz in Round 1. The coaches did not like how team started games: against Biarritz they were down 15-3 at HT, and last week they were down 15-0 in the 25th minute. They suffered a lot in scrum against Carcassonne, and conceded a lot of penalties at breakdowns. I think the coaches want them to start the game better. The line-up for this game is good, the bench is very good with Fatatika who had a very good comeback against Carcassonne, Chouly, Mamea Lemalu, Rodor and Duguivala, a young Fijian that the fans expect a lot. I think Perpignan will win with the offensive bonus point (3 attempts to spread at the end of the match).

Brent Graham wrote: U69.5 at 9/10 WSB

Was on the U71.5, by far the most confident i've ever been of a bet winning in my life, at half time

Brent Graham wrote: Munster o14.5 at the break

Nice one Brent, red card and all ..what a finish too

Saracens vs Bath
Bath need to win with a bonus point to secure a spot in semi final - forecast is wet and windy so can see Bath targeting 5m lineouts
Bath + 4.5 @ 1.80
Dunn anytime @ 5

Big strike on Bath +4.5 and Bath to win the game at 15/10

Saracens playing close to full strength side v Bath. They sent out the kids last week. Final game in the Premiership before dropping down to Championship and Wigglesworth is playing his final match. Yes Bath have something to play for, but Saracens are a doughty proud outfit and I'd be surprised if they were turned over at Allianz Park.
Saracens 8/13 on the board
Saracens -3 10/11

Similarly expecting a big game from Bath, put Bath +4 in a double with Leicester win @ 3:10

Really like London Irish +18 @ 1.91, so bigger bet on this, few changes from Bristol and don't think the awful conditions will suit them

I think the cut points are high considering the weather in London, especially where London Irish vs Bristol is taking place. Coventry normally not impacted by rain. Leicester not impacted either.

Going in again on alternative handicap: Saracens minus 9.5pts @ 9/4
Hope I've read this one right

Harlequins +3.5 Chris Robshaw last game they should be highly motivated for him to win this game.

Tigers vs Quins
Weather should be better than expected - last game of the season that should be an open one

Over 5.5 tries @ 1.91
Tigers over 23.5 @ 1.80

Also like Leicester today Bradie and does look to be drying up there. In fact have decided today is time for a big go for bust bet after a poor result on Bok snorefest game yesterday.

Leicester 1st to 20 points @ 15/20

All in.

I'm going with the Saracens to win tonight @1.80.

They are fielding a strong team and Bath may need the win and bonus point, but they don't play alone.

Being in a must-win situation doesn't mean that they will win it too, and I've seen this too many times.

Being a party spoiler is a great motivating factor too, and if you have the squad to do it, why not.

Disappointed with that.
Congrats to those on the Bath + handicap

Thank you Quins, Bristol, Bath, and Wasps. My best weekend in a long time with my last 4, and biggest punts all romping home

A Monday morning and I'm smiling and not sobbing. My weekend result: 36 units bet for return of 50 units.

Those Mitre 10 games had hurt me badly by Sunday, causing me to throw caution to the wind for the Premiership - dumb, for sure - but paid off

Thanx to stig, Bradie, TOS, SOAP, Brent, and everyone else who helped form my choices. Mazeltov, Sante, and Cheers guys

And on wednesday, I'll take any -13.5 I can get on Sale vs Worcester.