Super Rugby Unlocked, Mitre 10, Pro 14, Six Nations, Aus v NZL 30 Oct-1 Nov

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3 years 6 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Despite the newsletter picks going horribly wrong I had a very good weekend hitting Ireland, Bulls and France overs points.

Very disappointed the Lions v Cheetahs game was called off and the Lions v Griquas game must a a doubtful starter - here are my handicap projections for local rugby

Lions -11.5 v Griquas (would be a few points higher if Lions at full strength)
Pumas +11.5 v Sharks
Bulls -6.5 v Stormers

There is also 6 Nations - latest caps below

Wales -6.5 v Scotland
Italy +28.5 v England
France -3.5 v Ireland

Rugby Champs

Aus +8,5 v NZL

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3 years 6 months ago #2 by ThoughtsOnSports
Taken England -25.5 at 0.91
France -2.5 at 8/10 and France board at 0.72
Scots +6.5 at 0.91

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3 years 6 months ago #3 by bradie82
I m with you on England -25.5 @ 1.91
Took France on the board @ 1.80 few weeks ago
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3 years 6 months ago #4 by son_of_a_punt
Also taken England -25.5 at evens. They need to win by at least 24 points and they play their game before Ireland play France so have to assume the worst!

Also perfect weather in Roma.

Also got some France at 17/20 v Ireland 2 weeks ago. Will now climb into -2.5 at 9/10 as well

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3 years 5 months ago #5 by bradie82
The only for France is that Le Roux might get banned at that would a massive blow for France as there is a la k of international second row in that french side - verdict is tomorrow I think so lets keep an eye on that

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3 years 5 months ago #6 by Laraxwell
where is England -25.5 at evens?
Current Line is Eng -30 at 10/11

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3 years 5 months ago - 3 years 5 months ago #7 by Laraxwell
Italy side last Saturday was less grizzled/ more callow than recent versions
Will still take:
Eng -30 in treble with
Fra -2.5 and
Cardiff Blues +12.5 tonight
Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by Laraxwell. Reason: Missing info

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3 years 5 months ago #8 by bradie82

Laraxwell wrote: where is England -25.5 at evens?
Current Line is Eng -30 at 10/11


Took it this morning on Bwin.com but as I can see all punters are on the same bet, the line has moved very quickly

On the Mitre Cup, the odds are out

Canterbury (-6.5) vs Otago
Wellington (+3.5) vs Tasman
Northland (+13.5) vs North Harbour
Auckland (-6.5) vs Waikato
BoP (-2.5) vs Hawkes Bay
Manawatu (+2.5) vs Southland
Taranaki (-11,5) vs Counties Manukau

Can't believe Southland is favourite away - when is the last time this occurred!! So Manawatu on the board could be interesting and I Like Northland Cap - They have not lose a game at home and 2 converted tries seems like a huge cap
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3 years 5 months ago #9 by Laraxwell
Taranaki -11.5pts is the standout for me
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3 years 5 months ago #10 by son_of_a_punt
Solid strike on Northland +14.5 vs North Harbour at 17/20

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3 years 5 months ago #11 by southpaw
the six nations is going to be brilliant this weekend, can feel it -

Wales v Scots - already on Scotland +7 from a few weeks ago. Scotland look to be in a better place at moment, no home crowd to spur Wales on.

Italy v England - going to be an all-out England attacking performance to get a decent points difference. Referee a bit of a concern.

France v Ireland - both impressive on weekend, France will clearly have a go no matter what score England win by, just seems how they approach games now. Ireland will want similar to last week but can't see it.

A treble -
Scot +
Eng points overs (once out)
France points overs or minus

around 11/2 to 6/1.

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3 years 5 months ago #12 by ThoughtsOnSports
Sharks -7.5 at 9/10
Bulls -2 at 9/10

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3 years 5 months ago #13 by Experienced Novice

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Sharks -7.5 at 9/10
Bulls -2 at 9/10


You should be charged for theft for that Sharks -7.5! I expect a big bounce back from the Sharks as well and even thought the -11.5 I got was a steal. My multiple also included WP +5.5 as I think they might have already had their eye on this one judging from their last performance

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3 years 5 months ago #14 by Shazzadude
Wow, Northland into -9.5 now. I’m not too convinced, they haven’t lost at home, but then they haven’t played anyone good at home either-Southland, Manawatū and Taranaki (who were out of sorts then but are on the improve). North Harbour will be chasing a bonus point win as well in order to avoid relegation to the championship-relegation is a three way contest between Canterbury, Bay of Plenty and North Harbour.

I suspect Hawke’s Bay might consider resting players for Bay of Plenty, since they have a huge Ranfurly Shield match against Wellington the following week. If they win, then they keep it for the year.

Wellington are taking their home match against Tasman to Jerry Collins stadium in Porirua this week rather than the cake tin. So wind might not be such a factor there compared to the cake tin.

Kiwi living in Australia
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3 years 5 months ago #15 by Laraxwell
Munster and Cardiff swinging the ball about in dry conditions. Going over 48pts in play

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3 years 5 months ago #16 by mackem
Will give Brent a bit of a spell on the sidelines when it comes to previews this week, I haven't seen much rugby this year but here goes with the first one ...

Australia v New Zealand, Bledisloe Cup III, Tri Nations Betting Preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/australia...betting-preview.html

All Blacks to win by 1-12 points, 7/4 WSB, Sunbet, (2 of 5 units)

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3 years 5 months ago #17 by Laraxwell
Agree above re Northland handicap movement.

I will try a double on
North Harbour -8.5
Taranaki -10.5
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3 years 5 months ago #18 by bradie82
Teddy Thomas out for the game on Saturday - replaced by Jalibert
Le Roux going through discipline at noon so lets see when we get news on that but with a British jury, he ll probably get 5/10 weeks (he s French)

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3 years 5 months ago #19 by Brent Graham
Stiglines are up Click Here

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3 years 5 months ago #20 by mackem
6 Nations France v Ireland preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/f...betting-preview.html

2 of 5 units, either side to win by 7 points or less including the tie 13/10 Sunbet.

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3 years 5 months ago #21 by Zambusta

bradie82 wrote: Teddy Thomas out for the game on Saturday - replaced by Jalibert
Le Roux going through discipline at noon so lets see when we get news on that but with a British jury, he ll probably get 5/10 weeks (he s French)


Le Roux cleared to play against Ireland.

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3 years 5 months ago #22 by mackem
6 Nations Italy v England

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/i...betting-preview.html

2.5 of 5 units England -29.5 points at 5/6 Sunbet (weather forecast looked decent when I checked just now and the line seems to be creeping into the 30's)

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3 years 5 months ago #23 by mackem
6 Nations Wales v Scotland

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/w...betting-preview.html

1.5 of 5 units, Wales to win by 1-12 points inclusive 15/10 Sportingbet

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3 years 5 months ago #24 by mackem
Lions v Griquas preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2020/li...betting-preview.html

Lions -10.5 points 0.87/1 BetXchange ( 3.5 of 5 units)

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3 years 5 months ago #25 by ThoughtsOnSports
Southland -2.5

7 Players returning and they have a chance of making the playoffs. Turbos is turmoil and lost captain Booth to a broken leg.

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3 years 5 months ago #26 by kompos
the bookies are still trying to steal pennies - they all quote a price for Scotland to win the Six Nations...really pathetic

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3 years 5 months ago #27 by bradie82
Top14

Clermont on the board @ 1.83
Clermont should bring the best available squad and Brive will be without all their Fijians and Georgians international players
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3 years 5 months ago #28 by mackem
Pumas v Sharks

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2020/pu...betting-preview.html

2 of 5 units Sharks -9.5 points at 9/10 Hollywood

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3 years 5 months ago #29 by mackem
Couch's plays for Australia v New Zealand and France v Ireland plus Mitre 10

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...ts-31st-october.html

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3 years 5 months ago #30 by landrews77

mackem wrote: Couch's plays for Australia v New Zealand and France v Ireland plus Mitre 10

hWOW ! What a surprise from Dave Rennie. The All Blacks smiling all the way to glory. I have never seen that in my wildest dream to play a ROOKie at first -five -eight. I have thought the Wallabies will gave the All blacks a game this weekend ,but it do not seems to be.The gap between Super Rugby and Test rugby is huge.Ask Hoskin Sosutu.The All Blacks want to win the CUP this weekend in style.It will happen ,because the Wallaby back line is there for taking.
Back to SA, the Stormers will push the Bulls, they already have one eye on this game this weekend.This season SA teams do not deliver two great game week in and week out.
In 6nations :France vs Ireland , Ireland know how to approach a must win game.

My bets for the weekend:
NZ -11,5 / Stormers +4,5/ Ireland +4,5
Adding Pumas +6,5 and Lions -10,5

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3 years 5 months ago - 3 years 5 months ago #31 by bradie82
Fijians in the Top14 will actually be available this week but that does not change my bet on Clermont

Adding Agen +30 @ 1.91

Edit : seems like Georgians might be able to play too - getting lost with all those changes - will confirm asap
Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by bradie82.

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3 years 5 months ago #32 by mackem
Bulls v Stormers

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2020/bu...betting-preview.html

Bulls -3.5 points 9/10 with @WorldSportsBet

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3 years 5 months ago #33 by ThoughtsOnSports
Lions -10.5

Happy with the side and strong bench.

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3 years 5 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
Joined by Thoughts on Sports, The Crowe Tips and half of SOAP on tonights show at 21h00

Click here to watch THE HANDICAP


Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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3 years 5 months ago #35 by Brent Graham
Great to have Bradie join us for 6 Nations, Europe and Mitre10 Cup - here is the podcast version and it is available on most major platforms

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3 years 5 months ago #36 by southpaw

Brent Graham wrote: Great to have Bradie join us for 6 Nations, Europe and Mitre10 Cup - here is the podcast version and it is available on most major platforms


Was driving tonight, had show playing via car speakers. Very good thoughts and guests all round, all with sound reasoning on selections. The comment re ‘NZ will always keep you in it’ or similar stood out, the -9.5 was my only early bet of week. Also like the total tries note from Bradie on France Ireland game, definitely waiting for that market with anticipation.

Should be a great day of rugby Saturday. Points markets will make for interesting viewing.
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3 years 5 months ago - 3 years 5 months ago #37 by Laraxwell
Enjoyed the show folks
This Irish supporter won't be betting on Ireland so not sure if we'll see that handicap reel in Bradie!
Agree with you re Sexton and Murray.
Wales v Scotland
Yes - Finn Russell does lovely things but can also be a liability - see recent game v Exeter.
Weather may not suit either. I don't trust either side so not getting involved.
Mitre Cup
Yeah - this mug stayed up to watch Wellington score a gazillion pts v Counties in the last 20mins last weekend - Hence play on 'Naki.
I'm afraid I don't share the confidence in Northland - they were lucky to beat Southland at home recently, and this weekend's visitors are vastly superior.

Best of Luck with your bets all
Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by Laraxwell. Reason: Missing info
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3 years 5 months ago #38 by Quill
Canterbury vs Otago

Canterbury would have had their talks, they have had their discussions, and looked at what needs to be done.
They have been boosted by the return of a couple of experienced players from injury/ suspension.

Otago welcomes back Ioane, Tomkinson and Koroi, so they have a strong line-up too.

However, I expect Canterbury to bounce back here and get to it from the start.

Small bets.

Bet 1: Canterbury HT -2.5 @1.85, bet365
Bet 2: Canterbury -4.5 @1.80, bet365
Bet 3: Canterbury team total over 28.5 points @1.84, sportsbet.com.au
Bet 4: Canterbury team total over 3.5 tries @1.70, bet365
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3 years 5 months ago #39 by bradie82
Canterbury vs Otago
Small play on over 22.5 HT @ 1.80

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3 years 5 months ago #40 by Quill

bradie82 wrote: Canterbury vs Otago
Small play on over 22.5 HT @ 1.80

Wow, the lowest I have is 24.5.

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3 years 5 months ago #41 by bradie82

Quill wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Canterbury vs Otago
Small play on over 22.5 HT @ 1.80

Wow, the lowest I have is 24.5.


Yes thats why I took it - bookie is 10bet and always have lower cut HT than the rest of the market

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3 years 5 months ago #42 by hanrick
Canterbury under 3.5 tries at 11/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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3 years 5 months ago #43 by ThoughtsOnSports
Wellington and under 50.5 at 2.5/1

Wellington 1-12 at 2.3/1

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3 years 5 months ago #44 by bradie82
Lions over 34,5 @ 1.83 and Over 4.5 tries @ 2

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3 years 5 months ago #45 by southpaw
can't get the 34.5 but taken 1 higher -

Lions over 35.5 @ 8/10

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3 years 5 months ago #46 by mackem

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3 years 5 months ago #47 by ThoughtsOnSports
Under 4.5 penalties in Lions - Griquas at 11/10

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3 years 5 months ago #48 by Quill
Lions vs Griquas

The total points is 61.5, while total tries is 7.5, so I'm taking over 7.5 tries @1.80.

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3 years 5 months ago #49 by Quill
Lions -5.5 2nd Half @1.88

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3 years 5 months ago #50 by Stoossy

Quill wrote: Lions -5.5 2nd Half @1.88



that is a great bet
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