All Football Tips w/c 8th January

AFCON 2024

Firstly I want to apologize for the long post and for my ramblings, but you can scroll down to find my selections if you want to avoid the reasonings.

African football is notorious for low scoring games and the high frequency of Extra Time and Penalty shootouts, making most knockout games lotteries, irrespective of betting odds. This years edition of the tournament has the betting quite open and Morocco are weak favorites at 6/1. Unlike other editions, where powerhouse nations like Morocco, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal, Algeria, Cameroon and Ivory Coast (all 10/1 and lower in the betting), would dominate the tournaments, this year I think these teams are vulnerable, namely due to Saudi Football and Turkey Football.

The quality of Turkish football has seen a drastic decline over the years, even with the top teams signing foreigners, most have proven poor signings. Look at the UCL, EL and Conference League and you will see the poor performances by clubs from Turkey.

The venture of Saudi into football has already been seen as a failure, with most players reportedly looking to leave the league inside of just 6 months. Players have realized that the league is not competitive and honestly, these players are being paid ludicrous amounts to play mediocre football. The standard in the English lower leagues are better. Take for example, the recently concluded Club World Cup, where highly fancied Al Ittihad with their stars like Benzema, Fabinho, Kante, Jota getting knocked out 3-1 to Egyptian giants Al Ahly in the second round. Many expected Al Ittihad to challenge Man City in the final.

As I mentioned earlier, the Saudi league and Turkish league contributes many players to the leading nations at the Afcon, and all these guys are going to be undercooked compared to players from the leading European leagues. Players like Mane, Mahrez, Kessie, Fofana, Pepe, Bono, Boufal, Ziyech and Aboubakar, all are prominent players for their respective nations, and most carry the hopes for their countries.

Most players from the Saudi and Turkish leagues come from the big Afcon nations as I mentioned, however two nations who are strong contenders with European stars are Egypt and Nigeria. In Mo Salah and Victor Osimhen, many will be expecting these players to bring Afcon success to their countries. The issue with Egypt and Nigeria in recent times is that they are made up of a couple of world class players but as a collective team and squad they are lacking. Players like Salah, Elneny, Osimhen, Boniface, Lookman, Iwobi, etc are quality guys but they also need help from their teammates, and I don't think they will get that for the duration of the tournament.

All this ramblings has led me to one nation who stands out in the betting and with its squad and manager, The Black Stars, Ghana.

Ghana are somewhat of a sleeping giant in Africa and have gone through a lean period, but their squad has the perfect blend of experience, and quality of untapped potential. One negative for the team is the unavailability of Thomas Partey, who will be a major miss in the midfield for the team. However, they have proven European pedigree stars who are playing their football in the top European Leagues (Premier League, Seria A, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1), and who will enter this tournament in pristine condition. The Ayew brothers, Semenyo, Inaki Williams, Amartey, Salisu, Idrissu, form a strong and compact spine in the team which will provide a solid foundation for Mohammed Kudus to spearhead Ghana's challenge.

Kudus, is a world class player, and has showcased his quality for West Ham in the Premier League. A multi-functional midfielder who can play across the midfield plus in attack, Kudus at 23 is the current and future of Ghanaian football and possibly African football. I expect him to play more advanced for Ghana and is a speculative longshot top goalscorer betting option as well.

Finally, what gives me extra confidence in Ghana is their manager Chris Houghton. Houghton has proven he has the skills to take Ghana all the way, while downplaying their chances. Houghton was the guy who started the emergence of Brighton in the Premier League, he got the club promoted, had them playing fantastic football and took them to an FA Cup semi before his dismissal. He has the experience, skills and personality to lead this young Ghanaian team at the Afcon.

My outright picks for Afcon 2024:

Ghana to win the tournament - 15/1
Ghana to make the final - 7/1
Mohammed Kudus top scorer in the tournament - 41/1

Goodluck to anyone betting during this tournament and hopefully its a successful one for all.

FA Cup

Wigan v Manchester United
ManU's last chance of silverware this season so expecting a decent line-up. Unfortunately we have been consistently crap for the most part and I do not expect this to change this evening. I think Eric ten Terrible will start with an almost top side and then be forced to bring on all the overpaid wankers in the second half.

ManU second half goals over 1.5 @ evens.

EFL CUP

Liverpool vs Fulham 1st Leg (Wednesday)

Just a heads up Chris, Trent is out for three weeks with an injury.

Decided to take these bets now to get the early value as based on the press conference, Liverpool have some injuries. With Trent, Szoboszlai, Salah all unavailable for this match, I think Harvey Elliot could be the designated FK taker for the team, especially for any on the left side of goal. Liverpool play on Wednesday, then off this weekend, then play the second leg next Wednesday before a league game at that weekend. So I think Klopp tries to get a sizeable lead in the 1st leg, and then rest some guys for the 2nd leg before the league game against Bournemouth.

Van Dijk is back from illness and should play, if not bet will be void. I think Liverpool could accumulate some corners here and Van Dijk shots is a runner. Also, Van Dijk was the FK taker at Celtic, and with all our designated takers out for the game, it could be a possibility that his on long range kicks while Elliot handles the shorter ones.

Two bets for me for this game, one main bet on Elliot shots, as he seems to be playing with a shoot on sight policy this season and a small play on Van Dijk shots as well.

Harvey Elliot over 2.5 shots - 16/10
Virgil Van Dijk over 1.5 shots - 37/20

Middlesbrough v Chelsea

Boro double chance @ 7/4

Small bet for a bit of interest, don't trust Chelsea away from home.

Boro vs Chelsea

Boro was very impressive against a strong Villa side on the weekend. I think they could topple Chelsea tonight. With Caicedo, Enzo and Gallagher all starting I think Gallagher could play more advanced tonight so taking his shots.

Connor Gallagher over 1.5 shots - 1.17/1

Damn place the bet look away and come back and see my bet shifted the odds out to 25/20!

Sucker move I know but taking more of that now at 25/20.

Naidoo wrote: EFL CUP

Liverpool vs Fulham 1st Leg (Wednesday)

Just a heads up Chris, Trent is out for three weeks with an injury.

Decided to take these bets now to get the early value as based on the press conference, Liverpool have some injuries. With Trent, Szoboszlai, Salah all unavailable for this match, I think Harvey Elliot could be the designated FK taker for the team, especially for any on the left side of goal. Liverpool play on Wednesday, then off this weekend, then play the second leg next Wednesday before a league game at that weekend. So I think Klopp tries to get a sizeable lead in the 1st leg, and then rest some guys for the 2nd leg before the league game against Bournemouth.

Van Dijk is back from illness and should play, if not bet will be void. I think Liverpool could accumulate some corners here and Van Dijk shots is a runner. Also, Van Dijk was the FK taker at Celtic, and with all our designated takers out for the game, it could be a possibility that his on long range kicks while Elliot handles the shorter ones.

Two bets for me for this game, one main bet on Elliot shots, as he seems to be playing with a shoot on sight policy this season and a small play on Van Dijk shots as well.

Harvey Elliot over 2.5 shots - 16/10
Virgil Van Dijk over 1.5 shots - 37/20

Already on Elliott over 2.5 shots, but now with his over 1.5 shots line at a backable price as a single, adding that too for tonight.

Solid strike on Elliot over 1.5 shots - 13/20

Reds team shots line 19.5 and I think the first time this season I find myself stalling at taking it. Leaning yes as am thinking they will push if get one to allow for a weaker side in 2nd leg. Will wait for team news.

Liverpool over 2.5 goals @ 13/8

AFCON OUTRIGHTS

Just the two for me. Always rate Nigeria and they take 8 players from Europe's top 4 leagues this time including the quality striker Osimhen. Burkina Faso finished 4th last time out and have also had a 3rd and 2nd finish over the past five tournaments. Their group looks OK and I like the odds

Win

Nigeria @ 9/1
Burkina Faso @ 49/1

EPL Friday Night

Burnley vs Luton

Burnley DC and over 2.5 match goals - 15/10
Luton over 1.5 offsides - 7/10

Burnley v Luton

No real feelings for this match so just taking a score draw for the watch

Score 2-2 @ 13/1

Soccer Saturday

EPL

Cole Palmer over 2.5 shots - 9/10

English Championship

Cardiff vs Leeds BTTS - 19/20

English League 2

Wrexham to beat Wimbledon - 9/10

La Liga

Bilbao vs Sociedad BTTS - 19/20

Over 2.5 goals @ 50/1 -

Bolton V Cheltenham
Charlton V Peterborough
Huddersfield V Plymouth
Southampton V Sheffield Wednesday
Crawley V Salford
Crewe V Swindon
Grimsby V Notts County
Wrexham V AFC Wimbledon

Sunday

EPL

Man United over 2.5 offsides - 7/10
Man United 5+ offsides - 23/10

Seria A

AC Milan to beat Roma - 12/10

Bundesliga

Borussia Monchengladbach over 4.5 corners - 11/10

Man Utd v Spurs

I see goals are expected in this match. Not sure I can see where they are likely to come from. Best we can hope for is probably a VAR penalty gift.

Man Utd under 1.5 match goals @ 12/10

Match bet and total
Spurs win and under 3.5 goals @ 4/1

Man United v Tottenham

I'm the opposite, Vann. I think both teams will go for it. Werner starting is really interesting to me. I think his pace could be a huge plus in this system, but needs to improve on his end product ( bound to be 0-0 now lol )

Over 3.5 match goals @ 5/4 ( main bet )
Spurs over 2.5 goals @ 4/1 ( smalls )