All Football Tips w/c 29th January inc AFCON

EPL Tuesday

Arsenal win into Luton over 3.5 corners - 11/10
Palace/Sheffield Utd BTTS - 21/20

Asia Cup

Uzbekistan vs Thailand

Uzbekistan finished their group on the second place, behind Australia, with one win and two draws, and only one goal conceded, in their 1-1 draw against Australia.

Thailand progressed a lot in recent years and that could be seen in the group matches.
In their three matches, the Thais did not concede a single goal, they drew twice, including against Saudi Arabia (the Saudis missed a penalty), and beat Kyrgystan 2-0.

Based on their performances in the group stage, both teams have justified expectations to qualify.

Considering how well the Thais played defensively in their group, it is likely that they'll let Uzbekistan (the best team in Central Asia) to dominate and they'll absorb the pressure, let the time pass and try to counter.

Bet 1: Bet builder - Under 3.5 goals + Over 1.5 cards + over 6.5 corners @1.80
Bet 2: Total over 8.5 corners @1.88
Bet 3: Total over 3.0 cards (Asian) @1.75
Bet 4: Bet builder - over 2.5 cards + over 6.5 corners @1.95
Bet 5: Bet builder - Under 4.5 goals + over 7.5 corners + over 1.5 cards @1.90

Will probably catch some of the Bafana action this evening so trying to get a bet running into the match

Mali match 1-2 goals into
Morocco match 2-3 goals
@ 2/1

Saudi Arabia vs South Korea

Mancini built a good team in Saudi Arabia and they will have full support in the stands in Qatar.

Klinsmann told his players to be ready to go all the way to penalties in this match.

South Korea had a leaky defence in their group matches, conceding in every match, 6 goals in total.

Bet 1: BTTS Yes @2.10
Bet 2: Draw at HT @2.10
Bet 3: Total over 2.25 goals @1.91

Bahrain vs Japan

Japan had a similar performance to the South Koreans in the group stage, as they conceded in every match, including from smaller teams, like Vietnam (2 goals) and Indonesia.

Bahrain lost to South Korea (1-3) and beat Malaysia and Jordan.

Bahrain will have massive support in the stands, as the match takes place in in Qatar.
Even if they are not at the same level as Saudi Arabia (1-1 after 120 minutes last night against South Korea), I think that Bahrain will create some problems to the Japanese defence.

The odds for both teams to score is attractive, and as Japan conceded so many goals so far, I think that there are chances for a Bahrain goal here, especially that this is a do or die match.

Bet 1: BTTS Yes @2.25
Bet 2: Bet builder - Japan to qualify + over 2.5 goals @1.66
bet 3: Total goals 2nd Half - over 1.5 @1.72

Tottenham v Brentford

Popping back to England for this, so fully expect a loss due to my abysmal live record. However, a pretty full strength team and a point to prove after the shocking City performance should be enough for the win. Like Liverpool as well, despite a lot of recent draws against Chelsea.

Spurs + Liverpool double @ 6/4 ( main bet )
Spurs over 1.5 first half goals @ 13/5

Nice job on the Asian Cup Quill, you killing it!
Enjoy the game tonight Stokes.

EPL Wednesday
Just a double for me tonight, taking the bet over at Sunbet.
4+ match offsides in the Spurs/Brentford & Liverpool/Chelsea games - 19/20

EPL Outright Bet

Thanks for that 61/1 shot on the Liverpool quadruple South, took some of that.

I was over on Sunbet looking at some outright markets for the remainder of the season, and they have priced up Liverpool to go unbeaten in the EPL at home at 2.25/1. I know that may be a skinny price to back as an outright but to me that bet should be around 8/10 and its way overpriced at 2.25/1.

We have seen the great atmosphere in the FA Cup thumping over Norwich this past weekend, and with Klopp leaving at the end of the season, every game is a terrific Anfield atmosphere and Liverpool are now switching gears as they know City are coming for the league.

Liverpool have 9 league games left at Anfield this season:

Chelsea
Burnley
Luton
Man City
Brighton
Sheffield Utd
Crystal Palace
Spurs
Wolves

No disrespect to any of these sides but Liverpool should not be losing to any of them, with only the City game maybe proving the toughest challenge. However, City always struggle at Anfield and I think at best they may get a draw.

Liverpool past season record at Anfield in the league:

2022/2023 season - 1 loss to Leeds
2021/2022 season - Unbeaten
2020/2021 season - 7 losses (all consecutive when Liverpool lost all four CBs to season injuries)
2019/2020 season - Unbeaten
2018/2019 season - Unbeaten
2017/2018 season - Unbeaten

Based on historical stats, Anfield is a difficult place for any away side, and take away that covid disrupted season in 2020/2021, Liverpool have only lost 1 game at Anfield and that was last season. The 2021/2022 season were Liverpool was challenging for the quadruple and ended up winning the treble and went unbeaten at Anfield shows that the squad can compete under pressure and still make Anfield a fortress.

The combination of challenging for the quadruple, Klopp final four months at Liverpool, and the party like atmosphere at all Anfield games, makes this bet a massive runner for me. Ofcourse all my ramblings will mean nothing if Liverpool lose to Chelsea tonight at Anfield, but I think this bet offers plenty of value.

Liverpool to go unbeaten at home in the EPL for the season - 2.25/1 (Sunbet)

Man City vs Burnley

Bet: Man City (-1) Asian handicap at HT @1.85

Liverpool win 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 @ 3/1

Forum was on fire yesterday, nicely played gents.

EPL Thursday
Kudus 2+ shots & Man United 10+ fouls - 16/10

EPL Outright

If City do go on to win the league, then it means KDB probably plays a massive part for them. His back from long term injury and should notch up the assists. Currently on 2, with the leaders on 8. KDB is known for getting assists in batches and on a right day could easily get 3 or 4, should City smash a team 5-0 or more.

Kevin De Bruyne most assists in PL - 12/1

Should I stay sober long enough for the ManUtd team sheets I will post something.(It is boys night out)

Early bets

West Ham + Wolves over 1.5 match goals @ 4/1

and a nibble on

West Ham v Bournemouth over 3.5 goals @ 17/10

Asia Cup

Tajikistan v Jordan

Tajikistan is the surprise package of this edition of the Asia Cup.
they qualified in in the quarter-finals from a group with China, Qatar (host country) and Lebanon.

They drew 0-0 with China, lost 0-1 to Qatar and they beat Lebanon.
In the last 16 they eliminated the UAE..

Jordan qualified with quite a bit of luck, as in the round of 16 they beat Iraq after a lot of dramatism.
Iraq was the better team, but the moment they had one player eliminated, leading 2-1, Jordan pressed hard and scored two goals in the 95th and 97th minutes.

I think this match will be tighter than the odds suggest.
The odds were heavily against Tajikistan at every match, and yet they proved to be a harder nut to crack than at first glance.

Bet: Tajikistan +0.5 @1.83

Saturday European Football

EPL
Everton 3+ offsides - 19/20
Fulham 2+ offsides - 7/10
Luton +4 corner handicap - 15/20

La Liga
Real Sociedad over 14.5 fouls - 9/10

Asia Cup/EPL Treble

Japan to Qualify
Everton 2+ offsides
Newcastle win
- 17/10

EPL Sunday
Arsenal vs Liverpool

I know this is crazy to say in early February, but this is a title decider for Arsenal. A draw and they out of the title race. I also think a draw for Liverpool is a horrible result as they will be letting City claw their way back to the top.

Liverpool have been in this situation twice with City, where in general circumstances an away draw against Arsenal, Chelsea, United and Spurs would be a good point. However, City always seem to go on these long winning runs at the backend of the season and they have started their run already. If Liverpool want to win the league they have to beat Arsenal on Sunday, thus killing the Gunners title hopes and keeping the Reds alive. A draw most likely kills both teams title chances, as City wont lose again this season (looking at their fixtures, the only game they could drop points is against Liverpool at Anfield).

I hope Klopp starts young Bradley over Trent, as Bradley is a solid solid player. He has it all to be a world class fullback for the Reds. Unlike Trent who gets killed against Martinelli, Bradley knows how to defend 1v1, and should be fine. Bradley attacking threat is as good as Trent and honestly Trent hasn't been missed when out injured.

I feel the pricing for this game is wrong and should be more around 16/10 the pair. Liverpool are switching gears now and you can see they going for the kill. Unlike years ago, where Klopp pulled the handbrake when the team was 3 or 4 goals up, his now more ruthless. GD could factor the league title, so Liverpool will aim to improve theirs even more.

Soon, it's going to click for the Liverpool attack and especially Darwin Nunez and some team is going to get a proper 6 or 7 goal thumping. I think wagering a beer on that in Liverpool's remaining games is a betting option.

For Sunday game three bets for me.

Liverpool DNB - 14/10
Liverpool over 11.5 shots - evens
Liverpool over 3.5 goals - 14/1

Liverpool shots train alert!

Following on the over 11.5 shots. Feels a good one,

Saturday acca

Over 2.5 goals at
Everton
Tranmere
Charlton
Peterborough
Hull
Swansea
Newcastle
Sheff Utd
@ 64/1

Over 2.5 goals @ 107/1 -

Blackburn V QPR
Norwich V Coventry
Rotherham V Southampton
Stoke V Leicester
Swansea V Plymouth
Charlton V Derby
Peterborough V Wigan
Accrington V Grimsby
Mansfield V Notts County

EPL Sunday

Man United vs West Ham

The battle of two poorly run clubs. West Ham have had a shocker the past week. First, they sign Kalvin Phillips who is not needed, plus his definitely not match fit and its not a surprise why Pep had no plans for him at City... Then to top things off they get rid of Fornals and Benrahma in the transfer window only to realize they haven't replaced them and then try to back out of the deals, finally end up losing two key squad players with no replacements.

West Ham may be 6th, but their underlying stats make for terrible reading, they are on the decline and will be lucky to finish around mid table come the end of season.

Man United seem to be bringing the entertainment back to their games now and it should be another fun watch today of two teams who are struggling, but the Red Devils have more quality so should prevail.

Man Utd to win and have most corners - 14/10

A 9/1 BTTS four fold as well for Sunday European Games:

Arsenal v Liverpool
Lyon v Marseille
Inter v Juventus
Real v Atletico

Man Utd v West Ham

Vin right on how the clubs are run ie poorly. I prefer betting on a sides strength. In the case of ManU this would be goals conceded as we have let in more then we have scored

West Ham over 1.5 match goals @ 21/10


Chelsea v Wolves

For some reason or other I keep thinking goals in this match. One of those where the two possibilities are one or many

Over 3.5 match goals @ 15/10

and sliding in a little afternoon treble

BTTS - Yes at
Bournemouth/Chelsea/Arsenal @ 33/10

Liverpool win @ 13/5 at half time

Played our crappest football in a first half all season and we are level. Think reds kick on 2nd half.

Nice job Vann today.

Joining you South, Nunez off the bench will change this game for us.

Fair play Arsenal, better team on the day and deserved that win. Very disappointed by that Liverpool performance.