All Football Tips w/c 4th March

EPL Monday Night
Sheffield vs Arsenal

Sheffield didn't get a manager bounce when they welcomed back Chris Wilder. Their form is so bad, especially at home that they have set a dismal record of conceding 5 goals in each of their last three home games.

To make matters worse, they now welcome a Arsenal side that is firing goals for fun and as Quill mentioned previously, the tactical tweak by Arteta has seen the Gunners not only smashing teams but also boosting their GD.

With Liverpool vs City on Sunday, Arsenal have the opportunity to win tonight and again on Saturday against Brentford to put the pressure on both their title challengers and go temporarily top of the league before that must watch Anfield clash.

I think Arsenal will put on a show tonight again, and Arteta will know they need to put in a dominant performance to gain both GD and at the minimum top spot come Sunday.

Arsenal over 2.5 goals - 17/20

Sheffield United v Arsenal

I find that Arsenal under Arteta do reasonably well but they are quite capable of producing 90 minutes of rubbish. This evening there is no need to speculate on the Arsenal performance because I think these odds are a little too good to pass up


Sheffield Utd over 0.5 match goals @ 11/10

Naidoo wrote: EPL Monday Night
Sheffield vs Arsenal

Sheffield didn't get a manager bounce when they welcomed back Chris Wilder. Their form is so bad, especially at home that they have set a dismal record of conceding 5 goals in each of their last three home games.

To make matters worse, they now welcome a Arsenal side that is firing goals for fun and as Quill mentioned previously, the tactical tweak by Arteta has seen the Gunners not only smashing teams but also boosting their GD.

With Liverpool vs City on Sunday, Arsenal have the opportunity to win tonight and again on Saturday against Brentford to put the pressure on both their title challengers and go temporarily top of the league before that must watch Anfield clash.

I think Arsenal will put on a show tonight again, and Arteta will know they need to put in a dominant performance to gain both GD and at the minimum top spot come Sunday.

Arsenal over 2.5 goals - 17/20

Make that 5 goals conceded at home in four consecutive games now

Idk whats worse the dismal pathetic performances of Burnley and Sheffield this season or the fact that when you factor in parachute payments for their relegation, they most likely will be getting promoted again next season.

Atleast Luton have fight in them and a style of play, these other two teams are utter rubbish!

Re Arsenal, I agree with your comment Vann. They are beating teams they should be beating, when they come up against proper teams away from home thats when they struggle. Even away from home in UCL they were found out against a terrible Porto side. Watch Arsenal put 3 or 4 past Porto at home next week though.

For me, winning 6-0 against West Ham, Sheffield, 5-0 against Burnley, doesn't mean anything if you cant deliver in the big games against the teams you competing for titles with, especially in away games.

Anyway on to tonight...

UCL Tuesday
Bayern vs Lazio 2nd Leg (0-1)

Thanks for the write up Chris and glad you mentioned Tuchel departure at the end of the season. From past experiences with big clubs, generally when a manager announces his leaving at the end of the season, results and performances get even worse. Look at Barca and Bayern this season.

Tuchel mentioned a few weeks ago that he doesn't care about whether player's want more game time or about the team chemistry, as his not there next season so it wont be his problem. Crazy comments but Bayern have brought this onto themselves.

In the league they have quickly fallen 10 points off Leverkusen with 10 games to go. As Chris mentioned, the UCL is most likely their last chance for silverware this season. Unfortunately I think they get knocked out tonight.

Lazio are a typical Italian side, solid defensively, stubborn and love to protect a lead. Sarri is the master in playing the counter attack and with a 1-0 win in the first leg, I expect Lazio to sit back, soak the pressure and hit Bayern on the counter. Bayern are all over the place, dropping points and struggling in every game they play. Even with a boisterous home crowd tonight, they will still struggle against a lethal Lazio counter attack.

Bayern are not playing as a team, theres no chemistry or style of play. Tuchel knows his time is nearly up and is waiting for that golden handshake. I think there will be goals tonight and I am backing Lazio to contribute and knock out a feeble Bayern Munich team.

Bet 1 - Bayern vs Lazio BTTS - 11/10
Bet 2 - Lazio to go through - 22/10

Ipswich Town vs Bristol City

Bristol City are in the middle of nowhere in the Championship table, so they play without much pressure, but are a really good defensive team.

Ipswich Town are involved in the fight for direct promotion, but their defensive numbers are not as good as Bristol's.

Bristol City work really hard and are ranking top five in ball recoveries, so they are going to make life difficult for Ipswich. If Ipswich will take all three points they may not win by more than one goal difference. That is if they win.
I think that Bristol are given too much room to wiggle in this handicap, so I'll take it.

Bristol City +1 @1.84

Bayern Munich vs Lazio

Very much aligned with your opinion here, Naidoo.
I'll take your bets too.

Bayern are no longer the team that made everyone fear them.
They recently were dominated by Leverkusen, needed a stoppage time winner to beat Leipzig and they weren’t that great in the first leg against Lazio.

The problem is Bayern Munich have become a pretty easy team to prepare for. They have some of the best individual quality in the world, which is why they've dominated a lot of lesser competition in the Bundesliga, but having great individual quality without many build up options makes it easier for top sides to hold Bayern Munich at bay.

There is also the aspect of what is going on off the field for Bayern Munich. It’s already been confirmed that Tuchel is out at the end of the season. Because of the bad run of recent results and the fact that he is not popular in the dressing room, if Bayern get knocked out by Lazio he is done and they are bringing in a caretaker manager for the remainder of the season.

Lazio did an incredible job in their defensive block and Bayern Munich played right into their hands, because they have become predictable.

Lazio didn’t even attempt to press them and Bayern couldn’t find a way to get the ball into the penalty box through the middle.

The first leg wasn’t a fluke for Lazio because they are definitely capable defensively of keeping Bayern at bay again. They are only allowing 1.03 npxG per 90 minutes in Serie A and are allowing the second-lowest xThreat. They just held Milan to 1.0 xG playing with 10 men for most of the second half and then went down to eight men in stoppage time.

The question you always have to ask with an underdog in the Champions League that pulls off an upset in the first leg, is can they repeat the tactical plan from that match and be successful with it again in the second leg?

Given the situation we are in with Bayern Munich right now, with how bad a run of form they've been in, all of the negative stuff going on off the pitch and the fact that they've become way too predictable, it gives Lazio a great chance to once again sit in a passive defensive block and keep Bayern from playing through the middle of the pitch.

Lazio to lose by two goals in 90 minutes seems a bit much.

Bet: Lazio +1.75 @1.80

Real Sociedad vs PSG

Real Sociedad are down two goals and need to play aggressively, but that goes against everything they try to do tactically.

Real Sociedad are one of the highest reliance teams on deep ball circulation in Europe's top five leagues. They are not a team that can just suddenly flip a switch and start playing like Liverpool.

For PSG, they just need to sit in a low defensive block and see this match out. There is no need for them to play aggressively out of possession, which is going to create a very slow paced match.

There were only 2.16 expected goals created in the first leg and we may have another low event type of match in the second leg.

Bet: Total under 2.5 goals @1.87

Been on a rubbish footie run recently so kindly ignore my bets. Do like the stuff you guys are putting up. My evening looks like

Over 2.5 match goals at
Coventry/Cheltenham/Mansfield @ 9/2

UEFA Champs League
BTTS at Bayern Munich and over 2.5 match goals at Real Sociedad @ 29/10

Nice job last night Chris with the UCL bets and Vann with the English goals treble.

EPL Sunday
Liverpool vs Man City

Taking this now on the back of some very important team news for the Reds. Liverpool at Anfield, I don't think I need to harp on about their record, etc. I will be shocked if they lose on Sunday, and the 19/10 Reds win is tempting, as is the 12/10 DNB, but I will wait for around 8/10 Double Chance should that be available closer to kick off. For now though one bet that sticks out is Liverpool over 1.5 goals at 12/10. Man City cant afford a draw here imo, and they will play their typical possession based football.

Liverpool are lethal on the counter and should give the City midfield and backline plenty of issues. With Nunez, Szoboszlai, and now Mo Salah back fit, I think Liverpool can easily score 2 goals against City. Salah being back is a massive boost especially for this type of bet as his clinical and has always troubled Man City.

Liverpool over 1.5 goals - 12/10

Orlando Pirates v Cape Town Spurs

Pirates are two points out of second position on the log and CTS prop up the log. They lost their first 8 matches before winning a match - strangely against Pirates. How bad are CTS?. I have seen them on four occasions this season and they are about as unlucky as my golf bets. Some of the matches they have lost defy belief. It is written large in betting mythology that you do not waste money on "Bad Luck" shots. No idea why I am taking this on but it just feels possible

BTTS - Yes @ 13/10

The Vann wrote: Orlando Pirates v Cape Town Spurs

Pirates are two points out of second position on the log and CTS prop up the log. They lost their first 8 matches before winning a match - strangely against Pirates. How bad are CTS?. I have seen them on four occasions this season and they are about as unlucky as my golf bets. Some of the matches they have lost defy belief. It is written large in betting mythology that you do not waste money on "Bad Luck" shots. No idea why I am taking this on but it just feels possible

BTTS - Yes @ 13/10

Thanks Vann will follow you on this. At one point CTS had 1 win and looked like they would struggle to even get to double figures in points. All off a sudden they have won 2 on the bounce in the league. For me, they finally moving in the right direction and 13/10 is nice value.

Also another early KO bet for me tonight over in the Europa League.

Sporting vs Atalanta over 2.5 goals - 9/10

Will join you on that Liverpool over 1.5 goals naidoo. Hoepfully a cracking game ahead.

UCL
City vs Copenhagen

Surprised to see Rodri and Haaland start but I am sure Pep will try and take them out early to rest ahead of the weekend. With one eye on the Liverpool game on Sunday, I think Pep tries to finish off Copenhagen in the first half and pull the starters.

Over 1.5 first half goals - 11/10

Europa League

Marseille vs Villarreal

At Marseille Gennaro Gattuso has been sacked and Jean-Louis Gasset has taken over and breathed fresh life into the club.

Gasset has changed Marseille into a very good offensive team.

Villarreal are struggling defensively. They allow 1.46 xG per 90 minutes and they also have had a really difficult time defending crosses, ranking dead last in La Liga in crosses allowed into their penalty area.

Marseille have completed the third-most crosses in Ligue 1 and have a couple of fantastic attackers in Iliman Ndiaye and Ismaila Sarr, who can cause a lot of problems in this match.

Bet 1: Marseille @1.80
Bet 2: Total over 2.5 goals @1.67

Benfica vs Rangers

Benfica allows a relatively low amount of expected goals domestically, but during the Champions League group stage they conceded 15.9 expected goals, which was the most of anyone in the competition.

Even over their two legs against Toulouse, who are bottom half of the table team in France, they conceded 2.5 expected goals over their two legs.

Phillipe Clement has taken over midseason for Rangers and did a masterful job leading them to winning their Europa League group over Real Betis and Sparta Prague. They were successful against both of those teams by doing something they don’t normally do in the Scottish Premier League – concede possession and play in transition.

In the four matches against those two sides they created 5.4 expected goals and are set up here to cause a lot of problems on the break against a poor Benfica transition defense that just conceded five goals to Porto over the weekend.

Rangers matches in Scotland have 3.21 expected goals on average, so I think we'll have an entertaining match here in the first leg.

Bet: Total over 2.5 goals @1.72

Double: over 2.5 goals @2.87

Europa League
Sparta Prague vs Liverpool

See Klopp has gone with a strong line up for tonight. If Sparta have any hopes of progression they will need to make the home support count in this leg. They are unbeaten at home this season and I think it will be a fast paced game with plenty of chances in the first half.

Over 1.5 first half goals - 13/10

Naidoo wrote: Europa League
Sparta Prague vs Liverpool

See Klopp has gone with a strong line up for tonight. If Sparta have any hopes of progression they will need to make the home support count in this leg. They are unbeaten at home this season and I think it will be a fast paced game with plenty of chances in the first half.

Over 1.5 first half goals - 13/10

nice one naidoo.

And i came online to see what lads fancied for Liverpool game to get a bet on myself, thinking usual 745/8pm UK kick-offs, and game already @ 50 min. Idiot.

Nice job on the Europa League Quill... Yeah these early KOs have caught me out plenty of times as well South.

A-League

WS Wanderers vs Western United

Bet: WS Wanderers -0.75 @1.97

EFL Championship Friday Night
Sheffield Wed vs Leeds

As great as the Premier League title fight is, the Championship is once again showing why its dubbed the toughest league in the world. Leicester, Ipswich, Leeds and Southampton are all fighting for automatic promotion and with 10 games to go its going down to the wire.

At the other end of the table, the relegation battle is one of the best in recent times, with 11 teams all in the fight to beat the drop and just two points separating 16th place from 23rd place.

We are treated to a Yorkshire derby tonight under the lights at Hillsborough. Leeds are in great form and are in a title tight and automatic promotion. Sheffield Wednesday looked dead and buried a month ago but all of a sudden 5 wins in their last 6 games have them at 38 points. Sure they have stayed 23rd on the log, but are now only two points off 16th place.

The atmosphere is amazing at Hillsborough and with both teams in fine form, I think this could be a close game. For all that's great about Leeds, they do tend to slip up away from home against lower table sides, Huddersfield away last weekend as an example. A month ago I would of said this would be a routine away win, but now with the upturn in form of Wednesday, coupled with a strong home record in the Yorkshire derby, plus a televised game under the lights, its all pointing me to a dogged fight from the home side. I think they put up a proper fight tonight and at the worst, claim a draw.

Bet 1 - BTTS @ 8/10
Bet 2 - Sheffield Wed Double Chance @ 13/10

Stuttgart vs Union Berlin

Stuttgart are legitimately the third-best team in the Bundesliga this season and it has to do with their tactical set up.

They are attempting the third-most passes in the center of the opponent's final third behind only Bayern and Leverkusen.
Stuttgart aren't just a play through the middle team, they also utilize their width pushing their fullbacks high up the pitch to overload wide areas to create chances via crosses. Stuttgart have completed the second-most crosses into the penalty area.

The other aspect of Stuttgart is they have two elite strikers in Serhou Guirassy and Deniz Undav. Due to injuries it’s been rare that the two of them have played together, but when they do it’s electric. Only five matches have the two of them started next to each other and they’ve created 10.7 expected goals.

Union Berlin are no longer the team that finished in the top four last year.
They’ve been a good team at defending their penalty area, but the problem has been they haven’t been able to generate much offense. They are only averaging 1.04 npxG per 90 minutes and have the second-fewest final third entries in the Bundesliga, so I am not sure they are going to keep up with one of the best teams in the league.

Bet: Stuttgart (-1) @1.80

Barcelona vs Mallorca

Barcelona's league matches tend to be high scoring and the second half has more goals most of the time.

This happened in 12 of Barcelona’s 14 La Liga home matches this season. The first halves of their home fixtures have only had 15 goals in total. This is less than half of the number of scores after halftime (36).

You also see this type of split for Mallorca. In the first halves of road games, there have only been 14 goals. This is much less than the 20 goals in the second half of their away matches. Mallorca has also failed to score in the first half in 77% of road games.

I expect Mallorca to sit back in a low block, and it could take some time for Xavi’s attack to find an opening. Hopefully, those scoring opportunities come after halftime.

Bet: Half with Most Goals – Second @2.05

Nice job yet again tonight Quill ... Helps soften the blow for my terrible Sheff Wed bets.

Saturday European Football

EPL
Palace vs Luton - BTTS & Over 2.5 - 11/10
Arsenal vs Brentford - over 1.5 First Half Goals - 11/10
(Arsenal play Porto in the UCL in midweek so Arteta will hope for a fast start and wrap the game up early and pull the starters)

La Liga
Getafe over 8.5 shots - 9/10

Seria A
Bologna DNB - 15/10
(Inter have almost wrapped up the league and should rotate their team here with a massive UCL game in midweek)

Over 2.5 match goals at

Mansfield
MK Dons
Bristol Rovers
Preston
Watford
Crysral Palace
Arsenal
@ 46/1

Manchester Utd v Everton
Not a fan of the lunch time kick-off. Usually delivers a poor match. Managers have to beat some urgency into players at half time so main bet is

Highest scoring half Second @ evens


Got Simon Hooper today. Has done 87 cards in 18 matches so going with a bet builder

Over 2.5 match goals/Over 11.5 corners/Over 3.5 cards @ 37/10

50/1 over 2.5 goals -

Southampton V Sunderland
Blackburn V Plymouth
Burton V Peterborough
Exeter V Bolton
Harrogate V Crawley
Mansfield V Swindon
MK Dons V Salford
Notts County V AFC Wimbledon

EPL Sunday

BTTS Double in the Brighton & West Ham games @ 21/10

Villa vs Spurs to end in a DRAW - 31/10

Liverpool over 1.5 goals - 12/10

Endo & Rodri both to get a card @ 10/1

Also Sportingbet bet builder feature now includes player fouls so cant resist these odds on this bet builder for the Liverpool game:

Endo 2+ fouls & Rodri 2+ fouls @ 2/1

Seria A

BTTS Double in the Juventus and Roma games @ 25/10

Following you, Naidoo, and adding a couple as well.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham
Total goals HT - over 1.5 @2.05

Liverpool vs Man City
Total goals HT - over 1.25 @1.93

Also on the Liverpool over 1.5 goals and fired up for this game today, think it’s going to be feisty!!

How Liverpool didn't get a penalty for that high boot foul at the end of the game, I have no clue. These refs and VAR officials are a joke, each week they seem to contradict themselves.

Looks like GD could possibly factor into things now that we down to 10 games. Hopefully we can all find some nice value in this next few months.