The English Premier league continues on Monday night with Leeds hosting last season’s Champions, Liverpool and we take a look at the game from a betting angle.
Leeds have put an excellent run together and have climbed to 10th on the table with 3 successive victories and they are undefeated in their last 4. Last time out they stunned Manchester City 2-1 on the road and their last home game was a 2-1 win over Sheffield United. A closer look at their home form showed they played 15 matches with 6 wins and 3 draws and they have only had 1 home loss in their last 5.
Digging into Leeds goal stats and overall they have the side with the highest goals per match, averaging in the league at 3.2, however at home their games only average 2.6 goals and 8 of the 15 games have actually delivered profits for under 2.5 goal backers.
Liverpool are 6th on the table and while they were dumped out of the Champions League last week their League form has been good and they have also won their last 3 in a row, most recently beating Villa at home and their last two away games were 3-0 win over Arsenal and a 1-0 win at Wolves.
Liverpool have played 15 away matches, winning 7 and drawing 5 and they have taken 20 points from the last 30 they have played for on the road. Liverpool’s matches have averaged 2.9 goals each this season and their away games have averaged 3.1 goals apiece and like Leeds, 8 of the 15 matches have seen those backing under 2.5 goals in the money.
These sides played out a 7 goal thriller at Liverpool earlier this season with the hosts winning 4-3 and other than that there is no recent head-to-head form to go on.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Leeds 37/10
Draw 67/20
Liverpool 13/20
Suggested Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 14/10
When you look at the home stats of Leeds and the away stats of Liverpool the 14/10 stands out at excellent value given it would have arrived in over 50% of the matches in question.
The way Leeds are playing I can certainly see them getting something out of this game and the correct score of 1-1 is currently priced a 7/1 and I think that is also a decent bet. As far as the match result betting goes the 13/20 Liverpool is too short for me and if I wasn’t involved in the goals market I would be looking at Leeds (+1) at 12/10 or perhaps the draw or Leeds to win the match.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
