Sunday's European Champions Cup semi final action sees Stade Toulousain start as very firm favourites for their clash with Harlequins.
Toulouse v Harlequins, Sunday 5th May, Toulouse, KO 14:00 (South African time)
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Chris Busby (Ireland), Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
TMO: Olly Hodges (Ireland)
Weather Forecast – Toulouse
Toulouse:
Toulouse booked their semi final berth with a resounding 64-26 home win over Exeter Chiefs. It was 17-16 at half time and pretty much one way traffic thereafter with Toulouse running in 9 tries in total.
In the Round of 16 Toulouse saw off Racing 92 (31-7) and they were foot perfect in the pool stage, winning all 4 matches including a 47-19 win away to Sunday's opponents Harlequins.
In the French Top 14 Toulouse are in second spot with a record of 14 wins and 8 defeats and they are 2 points behind log leaders Stade Francais.
Harlequins:
Harlequins return to France after they edged a thriller of a quarter final at Union Bordeaux Begles 42-41. They led 28-12 at half time but Bordeaux hit back only to miss the conversion of what was the final try in the closing moments of the match.
In the Round of 16 Quins came through a home clash with Glasgow Warriors with a 28-24 victory. Harlequins finished as runners up to Toulouse in the pool stage, their only defeat came against this opposition and they won in France at Racing 92 as well as having far too much for Cardiff and Ulster.
In the Gallagher Premiership Harlequins are in fifth place with a record of 9 wins and 7 defeats and with 2 rounds to go they are very much in contention for a top 4 finish and a place in the play offs.
Team News
Toulouse: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Juan Cruz Mallia, 13 Paul Costes, 12 Pita Ahki, 11 Matthis Lebel, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Antoine Dupont (c), 8 Alexandre Roumat, 7 Jack Willis, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Thibaud Flament, 4 Emmanuel Meafou, 3 Dorian Aldegheri, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Joel Merkler, 19 Richie Arnold, 20 Mathis Castro Ferreira, 21 Paul Graou, 22 Santiago Chocobares, 23 Thomas Ramos
Harlequins: 15 Tyrone Green, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Luke Northmore, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Danny Care, 8 Alex Dombrandt, 7 Will Evans, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 5 Stephan Lewies (c), 4 Irne Herbst, 3 Will Collier, 2 Jack Walker, 1 Fin Baxter
Replacements: 16 Sam Riley, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Simon Kerrod, 19 George Hammond, 20 James Chisholm, 21 Will Porter, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Oscar Beard
The Betting
Toulouse -18.5 points
Harlequins +19.5 points
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
As the current handicap of -18.5 suggests, Toulouse are big favourites for this game, but if there is one team that has the ability to defy the odds, it is Harlequins as we have seen them come back from hopeless positions to win many times in the past. I held back on this one as was hoping for a points quote in the low 50’s but the bookies were too sharp and at 62.5 I am not going to get involved.
This brings me back to the handicap and after being burnt by Leicester on the minus yesterday I am going to give the home team another chance. I think at some point they will turn the screw and pull clear. .
BET: 4 Units, Toulouse -18.5 at 19/20 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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