Ireland clash with Scotland in the Rugby World Cup at the Stade de France in Paris on Saturday and the outcome of this match will determine which nations qualify from Pool B
Ireland v Scotland, Saturday 7th October, Paris, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Nic Berry (RA)
Assistant Referees: Wayne Barnes (RFU), Jordan Way (RA)
TMO: Brett Cronan (RA)
Weather Forecast - Paris
Ireland:
Coming into the final round of pool matches South Africa, who have played all their pool games, are top with 15 points, Ireland have 14 points and Scotland 10 and 1 of those 3 nations will miss out. Ireland have won all 3 of their matches and they will top this pool if they avoid defeat here or lose by 7 points or less.
Ireland came through their crunch clash with the Springboks with a 13-8 victory. They were marginal underdogs for what was a titanic battle and Hansen scored their only try whilst the Boks missed a potential 11 points from the kicking tee.
Ireland thrashed Pool B minnows Romania 82-8 in their opening match and then put Tonga away 59-16 in their second outing.
Earlier this year Ireland pulled off a Six Nations Grand Slam which included a 22-7 victory over Scotland in Edinburgh.
In the RWC outright betting Ireland are trading at around 3.25/1 to win the tournament with BoyleSports, 8/10 to reach the semi finals and 12/10 to make it to the final.
Scotland:
If Scotland are to go through they would not only need to win this game but also deny Ireland a bonus point. If all 3 teams finish on the same number of points (15) it gets more complex and Scotland would have most ground to make up in terms of points difference.
Scotland started their campaign with a disappointing 18-3 defeat to South Africa. They were given around 11.5 points start on the main handicap line by the bookmakers and only trailed 6-3 at half time but in truth they rarely threatened to score a try.
The Scots put themselves on the board with a 45-17 bonus point win over Tonga in their second outing and then thrashed Romania 84-0.
Team News
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Johnny Sexton (captain), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 David Kilcoyne, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 James Ryan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Stuart McCloskey
Scotland: 15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Jamie Ritchie (captain), 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 WP Nel, 19 Scott Cummings, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 Luke Crosbie, 22 George Horne, 23 Ollie Smith
The Betting
Ireland -11.5 points at 9/10
Scotland +12.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
To say I am looking forward to this game is an understatement. It feels as though the business end of RWC starts now.
There was plenty of conspiracy talk during the week and if you want to see why it’s not going to happen and also to check out the permutations check out this Pool B Conspiracy video posted on our You Tube Channel.
This handicap has been stable all week and I have no strong feel on it.
The points line is set at 45.5 which is not giving anything away but does feel a couple of points high for this match given it will be played with knockout intensity
What really interests me though is the Total Tries Line set at 5.5
Forget the talk about bonus points, I expect both teams to take 3 pointers as Scotland best bet is to win by 8 or more without letting Ireland get a bonus point while Ireland will be looking to keep the scoreboard ticking over.
There is 17/20 under 5.5 tries on offer and I think it shortens or the line even comes into 4.5 by kick off.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any additional bets and other punters share their plays
BET: 7 units under 5.5 tries at 17/20 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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