Thursday's Rugby World Cup action sees Japan clash with Samoa in Toulouse and it's a vital game in terms of both sides hopes of qualifying from Pool D.
Japan v Samoa, Thursday 28th September, Toulouse, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Jaco Peyper (SARU)
Assistant Referees: Ben O'Keeffe (NZR), Craig Evans (WRU)
TMO: Marius Jonker (SARU)
Weather Forecast - Toulouse
Japan:
Pool D is at the mercy of England who have 14 points from their 3 matches whilst Japan, Samoa have both played 2 and have 5 points, Argentina have 4 points from 2 matches and Chile are out of contention having failed to earn a log point in their 3 outings.
Japan took on RWC debutants Chile in their opening match. The main handicap line settled in the mid 20's with Japan being the favourites and they recorded a 42-12 victory, scoring 6 tries to land a bonus point.
They couldn't follow up against England in their second outing, a game they lost 34-12 with all their points coming from the boot of Matsuda. Japan were 13-9 down at half time and again the handicap of 22.5 points was well set.
After this Japan finish up with a clash Argentina and they are trading at around 14/1 with BoyleSports to qualify for the quarter finals.
Samoa:
Samoa were given around 13.5 points start on the handicap for their clash with Argentina last week, a game they lost 19-10. Both sides scored just the 1 try but Malolo's late effort was followed by a Los Pumas penalty and was not enough to earn the Samoan's anything from the game.
Samoa's first action came against Chile and they won the game 43-10, scoring 5 tries to secure a bonus point and the handicap line of 33.5 points was accurate.
England provide the opposition in Samoa's final pool match and they are trading at around 67/10 with BoyleSports to reach the quarter finals.
Team News
Japan: 15 Lomano Lemeki, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Dylan Riley, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 Jone Naikabula, 10 Rikiya Matsuda, 9 Yutaka Nagare, 8 Kazuki Himeno (c), 7 Pieter Labuschagne, 6 Michael Leitch, 5 Amato Fakatava, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 3 Jiwon Gu, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki
Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Craig Millar, 18 Asaeli Ai Valu, 19 Warner Dearns, 20 Kanji Shimokawa, 21 Naoto Saito, 22 Seungsin Lee, 23 Tomoki Osada
Samoa: 15 Duncan Paia’aua, 14 Ed Fidow, 13 Tumua Manu, 12 D’Angelo Leuila, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Christian Leali’ifano, 9 Jonathan Taumateine, 8 Sa Jordan Taufua, 7 Fritz Lee, 6 Taleni Seu, 5 Theo McFarland, 4 Chris Vui (c), 3 Paul Alo-Emile, 2 Seilala Lam, 1 James Lay
Replacements: 16 Sama Malolo, 17 Jordan Lay, 18 Michael Alaalatoa, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Alamanda Motuga, 21 Melani Matavao, 22 Neria Fomai, 23 Danny Toala
The Betting
21h45 27 Sep
Japan +6.5 points at 9/10
Samoa -6.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
This handicap opened Japan +6.5 and they have been backed in to the current +3.5 levels. Of the 2 sides I have been more impressed with Japan and I felt they were getting closer to 2019 levels in their match against England.
There is nothing that jumps out on the total points line and in the end I am going to put my head down and go with a Japan win.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any outright or points plays on this game
BET: 3 units Japan win at 16/10 at Betxchange
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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