The final action in Round 5 of the Rugby Championship comes from Santiago del Estero on Saturday night where Argentina take on a South Africa side who are on the verge of landing the title.
Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 21st September, Santiago del Estero, KO 23:00 (South African time)
Referee: Christophe Ridley (England)
Assistant referees: Matt Carley (England), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
Weather Forecast - Santiago del Estero
Argentina:
Los Pumas have 2 wins and 2 defeats against their name, with 10 log points they are in second spot, 8 behind the Springboks and they would need to win both remaining matches against the log leaders to have any chance of denying them the title.
In Round 4 they thrashed the Wallabies in Santa Fe by a record margin (62-27). They were 20-3 down after half an hour but came storming back and scored 9 tries in total, 4 of which came in the final 10 minutes.
A round earlier their first clash with the Wallabies in Buenos Aires had seen them edged out 20-19. Argentina scored the first 10 points of the game and it was 13-7 to the hosts by half time but the Wallabies stayed in the game and after the lead changed hands a couple of times a penalty on the hooter won it for Australia.
Argentina had started their tournament by taking on the All Blacks twice in New Zealand. They were 16.5 point underdogs for the opening match in Wellington but sprang a big surprise in coming out on top 38-30. The Round 2 clash in Auckland was a totally different story with the All Blacks racing into a 35-3 half time lead and the final score was 42-10.
After this Argentina travel to Nelspruit for the return in South Africa.
South Africa:
The Springboks all but sealed the Rugby Championship title after beating the All Blacks 18-12 in Round 4 in Cape Town to maintain their 100% record. Siya Kolisi and Malcolm Marx scored the only tries of the game and the Boks fought back from 9-3 down at the interval.
South Africa also came from behind to edge the Round 3 contest with New Zealand 31-27 in Johannesburg. They scored 3 tries through Mbonambi, Smith and Williams and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu landed 2 conversions and 3 penalties. New Zealand led by a single point at half time and that advantage grew as they led 27-17 with just over 10 minutes remaining but South Africa took advantage after their opponents had a man sent to the bin.
Earlier the Boks completed back to back wins over the Wallabies in Australia. In Round 2 in Perth they came out on top 30-12 and in the opening round in Brisbane the Boks were even more convincing winners, 33-7.
Team News
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Tomas Albornoz, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 4 Franco Molina, 3 Joel Sclavi, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Thomas Gallo.
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Ignacio Calles, 18 Pedro Delgado, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 21 Gonzalo Garcia, 22 Santiago Carreras, 23 Matias Moroni
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Lukhanyo Am, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Salmaan Moerat (captain), 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jaden Hendrikse, 23 Manie Libbok
Recent Head to Head
2023 RC Johannesburg South Africa 22-21Argentina
2022 RC Durban South Africa 38-21Argentina
2022 RC Buenos Aires Argentina 20–36 South Africa
2021 RC Port Elizabeth South Africa 29-10 Argentina
2021 RC Port Elizabeth South Africa 32-12 Argentina
2019 RC Salta Argentina 13–46 South Africa
2018 RC Mendoza Argentina 32-19 South Africa
2018 RC Durban South Africa 34-21 Argentina
The Betting -
Argentina +10.5 points
South Africa -9.5 points
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 20 September 00h28
This handicap opened +13.5 Argentina and came in to +9.5 when South Africa sent a strong but slightly less than 100% team across. I saw it go as low as +7.5 but it seems to have settled at +9.5 or +10.5.
I think this Argentina team can push the Boks and will take a bet I often turn to when not feeling confident.
The Boks to win but by not more than 12 points.
BET: 2 units South Africa win by 1-12 points inclusive at 18/10 at Betxchange
The points line is 51.5 and with conditions likely to be good I am considering an overs play and will post any additional bets in this preview and in the forum.
Posted 21 September 20h07
I already have an interest in over 51.5 as the newsletter acca (10/1) finishes on it.but I will be adding an additional 3 units.
BET: 3 units over 51.5 at 19/20 at WSB
I also liked Chiefie's forum post of Kwagga Smith to get the final Bok try at 14/1.
BET: 1 unit Kwagga Smith last SA try at 14/1 at Pokerbet
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Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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