New Zealand and Australia bring the curtain down on their respective Rugby Championship campaigns in Wellington on Saturday, the hosts can finish no higher than second whilst the visitors are already booked for the wooden spoon.
New Zealand v Australia, Saturday 28th September, Wellington, KO 09:05 (South African time)
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (GRU)
Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Damian Schneider (UAR)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
Weather Forecast – Wellington
New Zealand:
The All Blacks come into the final round with 2 wins and 3 defeats against their name, they have 11 log points, 3 shy of second placed Argentina and the Springboks are out of their range with 19.
New Zealand held on for a 31-28 victory against the Wallabies in Sydney last week, a game they started as 15.5 point favourites on the handicap. It was far from convincing in the second half after they had looked set to run away with it at 21-0 up after 15 minutes but they held on at the death and will retain the Bledisloe Cup.
Back to back defeats to the Boks in South Africa in Rounds 3 and 4 ended their title hopes and they were in winning positions in both matches. In Round 4 in Cape Town they led 9-3 at half time but failed to score a try and the match ended in a 18-12 defeat. Prior to that they led the Boks 27-17 with just over 10 minutes remaining in Johannesburg but they were reduced to 14 men and eventually went down 31-27.
New Zealand's first two matches came at home to Argentina and delivered vastly contrasting results. In the opening round in Wellington they finished beaten, 38-30 but in Round 2 in Auckland they bounced back and in some style, running out 42-10 winners.
Australia:
The Wallabies have won 1 and lost 4 of their Rugby Championship matches and with 5 log points they will finish bottom of the standings regardless of what happens here.
In the Round 5 clash with the All Blacks in Sydney they paid the price for a disastrous start and trailed 28-14 at half time. They fought back gamely in the second half and the gap was reduced to just 3 points with a minute left on the clock but it wasn't to be and the match ended 31-28 with a try count of 4 a piece.
Last week's defeat to the All Blacks in Sydney was also the first Bledisloe clash and given the Wallabies needed to win both matches in the Bledisloe series the cup will remain in New Zealand.
In earlier results back to back games against Los Pumas in Argentina also delivered contrasting results. In Round 3 Australia came from 13-7 down half time to edge the contest 20-19 courtesy penalty right on the hooter. In Round 4 they found themselves 20-3 up on Argentina after half an hour but they conceded 9 tries including 4 in the last ten minutes and crashed to a 62-27 defeat.
The Wallabies began their campaign with two defeats at home to South Africa. A Round 1 clash with the Boks in Brisbane saw them go down 33-7. In Round 2 in Perth South Africa won 30-12 with the Wallabies failing to score a try.
Team News
New Zealand: 15 Will Jordan, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 David Havili
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau,, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Dylan Pietsch, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Rob Valetini, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell.
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Isaac Kailea, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Ben Donaldson, 23 Josh Flook
Recent Head to Head
2024 RC Sydney Australia 28-31 New Zealand
2023 RC Melbourne Australia 7-38 New Zealand
2022 RC Auckland New Zealand 40-14 Australia
2022 RC Melbourne Australia 37-39 New Zealand
2021 RC Perth Australia 21-38 New Zealand
2021 RC Auckland New Zealand 57-22 Australia
2021 INT Auckland New Zealand 33-25 Australia
2020 TN Brisbane Australia 24-22 New Zealand
2020 TN Sydney Australia 5-43 New Zealand
The Betting -
New Zealand -19.5 points at 9/10
Australia +20.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
The handicap for this game has been fairly stable at the 19.5 and -20.5 level and the points line ranges from 56.5 to 58.5 at the time of writing.
Australia will have taken a lot from their comeback last week and I expect they will be more aggressive on defence at the start of this game. I think they can beat this handicap but my preference is for a points play.
Wellington has been a comparatively good ground for Australia – they drew 16-16 here in 2022 and the matches have tended to be on the low scoring side with there last 6 meetings all having 47 points or less in them.
Conditions look decent but I think under 58.5 is the play here.
I will update this preview if I add any additional bets.
BET: 4 units Under 58.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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