In this blog Brent Graham has a go at predicting the week 4 Super Rugby Pacific Week 4 handicaps and he then tracks market moves, considers the weather and ultimately places a bet on each game.
Brent sends out a weekly betting newsletter in which he shares his punting ups, downs and lessons as well as weekend plays. This is not a tipping service and hopefully both seasoned and novice sports bettors will enjoy being part of the community.
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HANDICAPS AND POINTS LINES ARE OUT
Posted 03 March 07h15
The opening lines are out for SRP week 4 and here is how they compare to mine - Betxchange handicaps in brackets
Blues -7.5 (-12.5) v Brumbies - It might come back a point or 2 but accept my line was off
Points 57.5
Fijian Drua +7.5 (+9.5) v Chiefs
Points 62.5
Moana Pasifika +10.5 (+10.5) v Hurricanes - from +12.5 I understand
Points 63.5
Waratahs -7.5 (-8.5) v Western Force
Points 54.5
Crusaders -8.5 (-6.5) v Reds
Points 57.5
HANDICAP PROJECTIONS AND OUTRIGHT BETTING
Posted 02 March 16h37
The Highlanders over 36.5 point play will haunt me for some time and I still cannot believe they didn't add to their 31 half time points. Overall a poor weekend for the blog although winners in the Hurricanes and Force games at least eased the pain.
Table after Week 3
Here is the latest outright betting
- Chiefs – 17/10 (was 2/1)
- Blues – 13/5 (was 11/4)
- Crusaders – 13/2 (was 6/1)
- Reds – 17/2 (was 9/1)
- Hurricanes – 9/1 (was 17/2)
- Brumbies – 11/1 (was 10/1)
- Waratahs – 11/1 (was 11/1) (no change)
- Fijian Drua – 40/1 (was 33/1)
- Highlanders – 40/1 (was 33/1)
- Western Force – 50/1 (was 40/1)
- Moana Pasifika – 250/1 (was 250/1) (no change)
Here are my Handicap Projections for week 4
Blues -7.5 v Brumbies
Fijian Drua +7.5 v Chiefs
Moana Pasifika +10.5 v Hurricanes
Waratahs -7.5 v Western Force
Crusaders -8.5 v Reds
