In this blog Brent Graham has a go at predicting the week 5 Super Rugby Pacific Week handicaps and he also tracks market moves, considers the weather and ultimately places a bet on each game.
Brent sends out a weekly betting newsletter in which he shares his punting ups, downs and lessons as well as weekend plays.
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The Rugby Betting Thread is open in our forum - click here to see what other punters fancy
REDS V WARATAHS
Posted 15 March 07h20
This handicap has moved from an opening call of -2.5 Reds to a current line of -8.5,
The total points line is 58.5 and although points have been flying in this tournament I am leaning under 58.5.
I am not getting too involved in this one though and will duplicate the Chiefs bet and look for a Reds win by 11-20 points
BET: 2 units Reds by 11-20 points inclusive in "alternative winnng margin" at 3/1 at Betxchange
CHIEFS V BLUES
Posted 14 March 13h54
This handicap opened -7.5 Chiefs and is currently -11.5 which is where it looks likely to start. The handicap reflects the Blues struggles so far in their title defence year and even at double digits I cannot bring myself to back them.
The points line is 56.5 which is where it opened and if pushed I would take the unders.
I am not pushed though and I am going to go for a rare "alternative winnng margin" play. The Chiefs should be too strong for the Blues again and I am backing them to take control at some point and to win by 11-20 points inlusive.
BET: 2 units Chiefs by 11-20 points inclusive in "alternative winnng margin" at 5/2 at Betxchange
CRUSADERS V FORCE
Posted 14 March 13h44
The handicap opened -20.5 Crusaders and has moved to -25.5 on news that the Force are resting a few players.
Conditions look perfect and I think the Crusaders can beat the handicap but prefer backing them to score 45 points or more which is only 2 more points than they scored against the Reds last week.
BET: 4 units Crusaders over 44.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
BRUMBIES V DRUA
Posted 14 Marh 00h16
This handicap has not moved much having opened -12.5 to now sit -13.5.
The total points line is 59.5.
I am leaning to the Brumbies on the handicap but am rather going to zone in on their points and tries where the lines are 36.5 and 5.5 both at 9/10.
I don't expect alot of 3 pointers and if the over 5.5 was over 1/1 I would take it but the over 36.5 appeals slightly more at similar prices.
BET: 4 units Brumbies over 36.5 points at 0.89/1 at Pokerbet
HURRICANES V HIGHLANDERS
Posted 13 Marh 23h29
The Highlanders opened +2.5 and I went in with 3 units on them winning at 25/20.
They are now 17/20 and -1.5 having touched -2.5.
My early move was based on a market move which went as predicted but in truth I am not that bullish on a Highlanders win. It was only 3 units though so I am going to let it ride.
The points line is 58.5 and that looks a touch on the high side in this New Zealand derby.
My bet though is that we get a lose game and neither team wins by 8 points or more.
BET: 2 units "either team to win by 7 or less including draw" at 1.43/1 at Betxchange
SRP WEEK 5 WEATHER LINKS
Posted 13 March 23h04
A bit late this week but here are the weather links
Highlanders v Hurricanes Friday 08h05, Forsyth Barr Stadium (Turf) - under roof
Brumbies v Force Friday 10h35, GIO Stadium, Canberra (Grass) - cool, clear and dry
Crusaders v Force, Saturday 05h35, Appolo Pojects Stadium, Christchurch (Grass) - clear
Chiefs v Blues, Saturday 08h05, FMG Stadium, Waikato (hybrid) - clear with some wind
Reds v Waratahs Saturday 10h35, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (hybrid) - warm, clear
BIG MONEY FOR CHIEFS AND CRUSADERS
Posted 13 March 09h10
There has been strong support for the Chiefs and the Crusaders.
The Chiefs (at home to the Blues) who opened -7.5 are as big as -12.5 in places and the Crusaders who opened -20.5 are now -25.5 at home to the Force
Points lines quite stable although a 2 point move from 60.5 to 62.5 in Crusaders game.
Weather links to follow
MONEY FOR HIGHLANDERS AND REDS
Posted 11 March 08h52
Money has come for the Highlanders and the +2.5 is now -1.5 and the 25/20 suggested below earlier is now 8/10.
The other big mover is the Reds backed from -2.5 to -5.5 (I went -4.5)
We also have points lines and they are below with latest handicaps
Highlanders -1.5 v Hurricanes, points 57.5
Brumbies -11.5 v Drua, points 58.5
Crusaders -20.5 v Force, points 60.5
Chiefs -7.5 v Blues, points 56.5
Reds -5.5 v Waratahs, points 58.5
BOOKIES ARE OUT WITH CAPS
Posted 10 March 07h28
Below the handiaps at Betxchange in brackets next to my projections
Highlanders -3.5 (+2.5) v Hurricanes - I think there is value on the Highlanders +
Brumbies -9.5 (-12.5) v Drua - I won't be backing the Drua +, I rekon they could rest players for this one and my cap was wrong
Crusaders -16.5 (-20.5) v Force - I was probably a bit shy with this cap
Chiefs -5.5 (-7.5) v Blues - the 7.5 looks about right
Reds -4.5 (-2.5) v Waratahs
EARLY PLAY: 3 units Highlanders to win at 25/20 at WSB
WEEK 5 PROJECTED HANDICAPS
Posted 09 Marh 21h48
Below my projected week 5 handicaps and when the bookies lines are out I will compare and decide whether to make any early moves
Highlanders -3.5 v Hurricanes
Brumbies -9.5 v Drua
Crusaders -16.5 v Force
Chiefs -5.5 v Blues
Reds -4.5 v Waratahs
SRP LOG AFTER WEEK 4
Posted 09 March 17h20
I can't find any outright bettind but here is the log
SRP WEEK 4 WRAP
Posted 09 March 17h12
The Drua and Moana Pasifika captured the scalps of the Chiefs and Hurricanes respectively and well done to Southpaw in our forum for taking the 10/1 double.
Here are the results with the handicap of the winner in brackets
Blues 20 Brumbies 21 (+9.5)
Drua 28 Chiefs 24 (+9.5)
Pasifika 40 Hurrianes 31 (+10.5)
Waratahs 34 Force 10 (-7.5)
Crusaders 43 Reds 19 (-11.5)
Betting update and log to follow
