Streamed live from 21:00 on Thursday 21st March Brent Graham is joined by a team of rugby betting experts providing betting tips for the weekends action in United Rugby Championship Week 12, Super Rugby Week 5
Live from 21:00 on Thursday 21st March, The Handicap, Rugby Betting Show
Summary of Super Rugby and URC selections will be posted below
Note: URC matches with South African teams have full previews - click here
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC
HURRICANES V REBELS
The handicap is very much where I set it in my Sunday night exercise and that has me looking to the points lines. The Mossman suggested the Rebels overs was the way to play this one and I agree.
I have been quite impressed with them on attack this season and aside from their opening match against the Brumbies they have gone past the line in every other match.
BET: 4 units Rebels over 21.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet*
*Pokerbet are generally 1st to market with rugby points lines – click here to open an account
BRUMBIES V MOANA PASIFIKA
This handicap is exactly where I set it (-14.5) in my Sunday night exercise in the forum.
It is not a game either of the panelists were that confident on and I am going to have a bet that the layers have this one pretty close to correct and will wager that the Brumbies will win by 11-20 points inclusive.
BET: 2 units Brumbies by 11-20 points at 5/2 at Betxchange
FIJIAN DRUA V WARATAHS
I made the Waratahs favourite when I price this one up and I am tempted by the +4.5 on offer.
That being said this is not a confident play and with the 3am kick off unlikely to get me out of bed I am looking for a more speculative angle.
If reports and forecasts are to be believed we are heading for “biblical” conditions and the points line has tumbled from 60.5 to 43.5.
If conditions are really bad there ould be nothing in this and I am going to have a rare stab at the draw.
BET: 0.75 units the draw at 25/1 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
I am not sure when we last had a game without a try in Super Rugby but if we have swamp like conditions it may just be a runner.
BET: 0.25 units First Try Scorer “No Trysorer” at 40/1 at WSB
CHIEFS V HIGHLANDERS
This game is exactly where I handicapped it but after hearing the confidence of The Mossman and The Oracle on Thursday nights THE HANDICAP I am going back the Highlanders to beat the spread.
The Chiefs have made some rotational changes and while I expect them to win the disruption could be enough to see the Highlanders keep it close.
The points lines is 60.5 and if pushed I would go unders and may still do so – keep an eye on our forum thread for more bets.
BET: 4 units Highlanders +14.5 at 9/10 at Hollywood*
*If you are not signed up yet, please use this link to open your account at Hollywood
BLUES V CRUSADERS
I handicapped this game Blues -9.5 and after opening -5.5 the line is now very much where I expected it.
The closer we get to kick off though the stronger I am on the Blues and I have a feeling they are going to put the Crusaders away.
The total points line of 50.5 looks about right.
BET: 4 units Blues -8.5 at 17/20 at WSB
FORCE V REDS
The Reds have been the standout Australian team but this handicap looks well set.
I am expecting points from both sides and my main play here is the over 56.5.
BET: 3 units over 56.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
I have this sneaky suspicion the Force will sore the 1st try and I am going to have a speculative play that Harry Potter flies over for the 1st try.
BET: 0.5 unit Harry Potter FTS at 18/1 at Pokerbet*
*Pokerbet are generally 1st to market with rugby points lines – click here to open an account
URC WEEK 12
OSPREYS V MUNSTER
Ospreys are +6.5 and I think the handicap is well set.
The points line is 44.5 and while overs is tempting the history of this fixture (when hosted by Ospreys) suggests a low scoring game.
I will settle on a speculative HT/FT play with Ospreys to lead at the break but Munster storming back to win the match.
BET: 1 unit HT/FT Ospreys/Munster at 11/2 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
GLASGOW WARRIORS V CARDIFF BLUES
The Mossman was fairly confident that the Warriors could do the business here. They have been a profitable side to follow this season and I am going to take advantage of the URC Promo at Betxchange and will take the 1/1 on the minus. This would have arrived in the last meeting between the sides in Glasgow (52-24 in 2022)
BET: 3 units Glasgow -16.5* at 1/1 at Betxchange
*Promo has a 3k max bet and cannot be used in multiples
SCARLETS V BENETTON
The home team are +2.5 and I have no real feel for the line and will have a go at over 45.5 points
BET: 3 units over 45.5 points at WSB
ZEBRE V LEINSTER
Leinster have not been delivering on big handicaps this season and Italian rugby is on a high.
BET: 3 units Zebre +17.5 at 19/20 at WSB
