In this blog Brent Graham will look at betting news and movements throughout the week leading up to the matches taking place on Friday the 14th to Sunday the 16th of February, he will also put up at least 1 bet in each match.
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DRAGONS v GLASGOW
Posted 16 Feb 09h59
The handicap is Dragons +12.5 and money has come for Glasgow after the line opened +8.5.
The points line is sitting at 50.5 and this is where I am looking for a final interest.
Cold and overcast conditions are expected but no rain is forecast however I just feel that 50.5 is a couple of points too high. Glasgows last 5 matches in all competitions have been low scoring and with so many internationals missing I think this could get scrappy.
BET: 3 units u50.5 points at 0.92/1 at Betxchange
BULLS RUIN THE WEEKEND
Posted 16 Feb 01h02
The Bulls game hit me hard as I had doubles ending on them to score 33 points or more and 54 points or more in the match.
It was an awful game to watch and I reckon it took over 100 min to play.
I fought back nicely with the last 3 winners but at lower stakes and overall the Bookies are slightly ahead of me going into Sunday.
I will be back to look at the Dragons game in the morning
CONNACHT v CARDIFF
Posted 15 Feb 13h06
This handicap opened -16.5 and came into -12.5 but is back out to -15.5 Connacht.
The points line is 49.5 and conditions look likely to be a bit windy and humid but likely no rain.
I think this could get scrappy and am grabbing some u50.5
BET: 3 units u50.5 points at 17./20 at Sportingbet
BENETTON v ULSTER
Posted 15 Feb 11h50
This handicap has bounced between Benetton +3.5 and Benetton +0.5 and currently sits at +2.5.
The points line is 44.5 and with the weather looking decent I think overs is the play here.
BET: 3 units over 44.5 points at 10/11 at WSB
MUNSTER v SCARLETS
Posted 15 Feb 11h45
This handicap has come in from -12.5 Munster to -10.5 and the points line is 44.5 with windy and potentially rainy conditions expected.
These sides have played some fluctuating fixtures over the years and the last 5 matches hosted by Munster have had 91, 38, 39, 26 and 68 points in them.
Given conditions I think we are looking at a lower scoring game and in the 3 middle matches the Scarlets never scored more than 10 points.
BET: 3 units Scarlets under 16.5 points at 10/11 at Sportingbet
OVERCAST CONDITIONS IN JOBURG
Posted Feb 15 10h23
A bit gloomier in Joburg and Pretoria than I would have liked. Chances of showers but hoping for dry games in fairly cool conditions
BULLS v SHARKS
Posted 15 Feb 09h05
A bit exposed in this one - full preview here
BET: 5 units over 53.5 points at 17/20 at Sportingbet
BET: 5 units Bulls over 32.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet
LIONS v STORMERS
Posted 15 Feb 07h14
BET: 2 units Stormers win at 21/10 at Betxchange
BET: 5 units over 48.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet
EDINBURGH V ZEBRE
Posted 13 Feb 23h45
Zebre were impressive in beating Ulster away in terrible conditions last time out but bookies don't give them much hope this week with Edinburgh -18.5. The points line is 49.5 and conditions look like being decent.
I like the team Edinburgh have selected and am going to back them to score at least 35 points.
BET: 3 units Edinburgh over 34.5 points at 10/11 at Betxchange
OSPREYS V LEINSTER
Posted 13 Feb 23h31
The line has moved in Ospreys direction from +14.5 to +10.5.
The total points line is 48.5 and this has my attention.
The weather looks like being awful with high winds and rain and I am going to have a go at the unders. This Leinster side may lack cohesion on attack with so many players missing but I am hoping Nienaber has the defence up for this one. This bet would have landed in Ospreys last 3 home matches in the URC and Leinsters last 3 away matches.
BET: 5 units under 49.5 points at 17/20 at Sportingbet
WEATHER LINKS FOR THE WEEKEND
Posted Feb 12 22h58
Here are links to weather sites for this weekends matches with the current forceast which is of course subject to change
Ospreys v Leinster – Friday 21h35 – Swansea.com Stadium (Hybrid) – Freezing, high winds, possible rain
Edinburgh v Zebre - Friday 21h35 - The Hive Stadium, Edinburgh (Artificial) - Cold but should be dry
Lions v Stormers - Saturday 14h30 - Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg (Grass) - Hot, clear and dry
Bulls v Sharks - Saturday 17h00 - Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria (Grass) - Warm, clear and dry
Munster v Scarlets - Saturday 19h15 - Virgin Media Park, Cork (3G) - Cold, rain and wind Thomond Park, Limerick (Hybrid) - cool, humid, clear with some wind - thanks to @Rugbyedgetips on X for pointing out I had the wrong venue
Benetton v Ulster - Saturday 19h15 - Stadio Comunale Di Monigo, Treviso (Grass) - Cool and clear
Connacht v Cardiff - Saturday 21h35 - Dexcom Stadium, Galway (Synthetic) - Windy, cold, rain likely
Dragons v Glasgow - Sunday 16h00 - Rodney Parade (Hybrid) - Cold, cloudy but dry
SMALL HANDICAP MOVES
Posted 12 Feb 22h32
The markets have been quiet with only a few moves of 2 points since the caps were posted below.
The Lions are -4.5 from -2.5, Benetton are +0.5 from +2.5 and the biggest move is Connacht who are -16.5 from -12.5
Weather links up soon.
OPENING HANDICAPS
Posted 10 Feb 14h37
Ospreys +14.5 v Leinster
Edinburgh Rugby -17.5 v Zebre
Lions -2.5 v Stormers
Bulls -9.5 v Sharks
Munster -13.5 v Scarlets
Benetton Treviso +2.5 v Ulster Rugby
Connacht Rugby -12.5 v Cardiff Rugby
Dragons +8.5 v Glasgow Warriors
Nothing jumps off the page for me although if Sharks get some injured Boks back the +9.5 could look decent.
ANOTHER TRICKY WEEKEND OF URC
Posted 09 Feb 22h12
The Six Nations may be taking a break but there will still be a huge impact on the URC due to players being unavailable to their clubs.
To kick off the blog lets have a look at the fixtures and the latest outright betting
WEEK 11 FIXTURES
Friday, 14 February 2025
Edinburgh v Zebre (21:35)
Ospreys v Leinster (21:35)
Saturday, 15 February 2025
Lions v Stormers (14:30)
Bulls v Sharks (17:00)
Benetton Rugby v Ulster (19:15)
Munster v Llanelli Scarlets (19:15)
Connacht v Cardiff Rugby (21:35)
Sunday, 16 February 2025
Dragons v Glasgow Warriors (16:00)
I may have a go at handicapping these in the morning if time permits
TABLE AFTER WEEK 10
OUTRIGHT BETTING AFTER WEEK 10
