Australian Super Rugby group stages conclude this weekend and we take a look at the two matches from a betting angle.
Let’s start with a look at the Outright Betting where the Brumbies, who are guaranteed a sport in the final, are currently trading at 9/20 with the Reds 28/10, The Rebels 15/2 and the Waratahs who have finished all of their matches out to 33/1.
A reminder of the structure that the second and third teams play each other for a spot in the final against the Brumbies.
Click here for Outright Betting, previous week’s prices in brackets
Brumbies 9/20 (8/10)
Reds 28/10 (9/4)
Rebels 15/2 (13/2)
Waratahs 33/1 (19/1)
REBELS v WESTERN FORCE – Click here to bet
The Rebels missed the opportunity to bank their playoff spot when they lost to the Waratahs last week, but they only have to win this game to finish 3rd. Prior to losing to the Waratahs they had also lost to the Reds 19-3 and in their best performance of the season they beat the Brumbies 30-12.
The Force have lost every match they have played this season, but their best performance to date came against the Rebels where they drew 20-20, losing 20-25 in Super Time. They were beaten by 17 points by the Brumbies last week which given the handicap was (+20.5) was enough for those who backed them to collect.
BETTING
Rebels 1/6
Draw 35/1
Western Force 5/1
Handicap: Rebels (-14.5) at 9.10, Western Force (+14.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Half-Time Handicap, Rebels (-7.5) at 9/10
I expect the Rebels to come out firing and to get the job done early before perhaps easing off in the second-half.
REDS v BRUMBIES – Click here to bet
The Reds are guaranteed second spot on the log and they cannot catch the Brumbies who are going to finish on top. The Reds are coming off a bye having hammered the Force 57-5, two weeks ago and prior to that they beat the Rebels 19-3, but were badly beaten 45-12 by the Waratahs.
The Brumbies beat the Force by 17 points last week and they have also seen off the Waratahs by 27 the week before that. When these sides met earlier in the season, in Canberra, the Reds pushed the Brumbies all the way and it was only a last minute penalty that got the home side to victory 22-20.
BETTING
Reds 1/1
Draw 25/1
Brumbies 9/10
Handicap: Reds (+0.5) at 9/10, Brumbies (-0.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Half-Time/Full-time, Reds/Reds at 22/10
This is not a confident play as this is very much a dead rubber, but I do think the Reds have been playing good rugby and will be looking to keep their momentum heading into the playoffs. The Brumbies know they have a week off next week to prepare so it is a small play for me on the Reds to lead at half-time and win the match.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
