All Racing Tips w/c 19th Janaury

No local racing on Monday or Tuesday, the schedule for the rest of the week is as follows.

Wednesday, Durbanville
Thursday, Turffontein
Friday, Fairview
Saturday, Turffontein
Sunday, Scottsville

Winning Form previews to follow and all this week's racing tips are most welcome here

Wednesday's Winning form preview for Durbanville  is available here

WSB Met Final field announced last night. Lots of opinions on social media about a "small" field of only 11 runners. Is this a case of quality over quantity? Would a field of 16/18 have made a difference to the quality of the race? Any horse(s) not running that punters feel should have lined up here? Also as a GR1 race, shouldn't it be "mandatory" to have a full field? I understand the aspect of costs involved for owners to nominate and accept etc.

From a betting point of view: Would a full field have resulted in better payouts with more combinations for exotic bets and better win/place odds? Tote for example will now only pay 3 places instead of 4 should we have had 16+ runners.

I would like to hear the experts' view on this.

 

Snippet taken from Formgrids.

Interesting questions posed in your post Jacques, I'll take a stab at offering some options and my own opinions on the hoof so to speak, some are more general points, others specific to this years MET field. 

MET Day Field Sizes 

WSB deserve huge credit for their support of local racing and the total MET purse has been upped to R5m. The top 4 in the betting, 8/18, Real Prince, See It Again and Sail the Seas make it competitive enough for me although it would be nice to have a few more runners and from a neutral point of view, 

Whilst all the Snaith horses have earned their place, it don't look healthy that more than half the field come from one yard. An 8 runner field for The Politician Stakes on MET Day, think its Race 8, also looks a bit light to me. 

Weight For Age Races v Handicaps (Summer Cup, Durban July) 

Consider the 2025 Summer Cup purse was R6m and the 2026 Durban July prize money will total R10m. These are both handicaps, the best weighted horse can often have an advantage over the best horse in terms of ability

Many trainers plan a route into the Summer Cup and July and looking after the merit rating is understandably the name of the game in terms of the horses schedule for prep runs, if you have a long term plan to run in the July off the minimum weight, do you want to risk an MR rise with a Weight For Age run in the MET in January?  

This might not go down well in some quarters but perhaps there is a case for the richest races in the country being Weight For Age rather than handicaps. If WFA races such as MET, Premiers etc.. had the bigger purses perhaps they could attract more of the cream given stud value scope as well. Would the likes of the July and Summer Cup still attract full fields and bigger betting turnover if they raced for smaller purses than the MET or Premiers? Given the history and nature of the big handicap races generating huge betting turnover, I would suggest they would regardless of the purse.

Merit Ratings

Linked to the above. With improving younger horses the connections have a conundrum as to whether to go through the divisions or risk a solid but mid-field run in a Grade 1 which could have the horse saddled with a high MR which can take an age to come down. This affects not only the chances of getting into a Summer Cup or July with a favourable weight but also their overall earning potential through their career. I would suggest the MR system needs a review anyway and also in conjunction with race conditions for Pinnacles, listed races etc.... 

Raiding Western Cape 

Credit to the out of province yards who raid and the operators for incentives to do so but this is still be a big call for some trainers outside of WCP to make. 

I believe you are looking at the best part of day to get a horse from KZN to WCP, probably similar from GTG,  Also Kenwilworth and Durbanville run anti-clockwise, ideally if you have a horse that has only been clockwise round the turn on the Highveld or KZN you probably want a prep run or two. 

The above lends itself to relocating to WCP for the bulk of their feature season. Bigger yards may have the resources, the smaller yards where a trainer has 30 odd other horses to look after back home has a decision to make.  

Field Sizes / Horse Population

Sales markets have been healthy for last couple of years but we still might be a season or two away from seeing the benefit of that in terms of horse population at all levels. We have one hell of a lot of sires which is not proportional to the amount of top mares right now imo. 

Additionally you could say top horses such as One Stripe are now taking their chances internationally (understandably so) affecting the field sizes and or quality of our top races. 

Tote / Betting Turnover

Big efforts have been made here and the bigger bookies are offering the option to bet directly into tote pools from their online platforms, this is good news.

There are also these World Pool days, I assume the MET could be the next one but World Pool have different Tote rules for places depending on field sizes and maybe other exotic markets. As I understand it the revenue streams on a World Pool day are very lucrative and SA tote players might need to get used to having to navigate a different set of betting conditions on our big race days.

I need a lie down after all that 



 

Thank you for the thorough answer and thoughts Chris. So much planning going into pathing a racehorse's career for which the stable and owners don't always get the recognition. I agree on the whole WFA v handicap debate. Have also heard of trainers and owners complaining before that it is difficult to find competitive races for some of their horses due to their handicaps being too high and taking forever to drop to a more competitive mark.

With regards to the horse population situation: It would be great to see our population reaching the numbers of years ago again. Speaking for myself here, its sad to have seen the closure of Flamingo Park and Vaal Sand courses over the years. It brought great joy following the runners who thrived on the sand but struggled on the grass. It also ensured that we had racing on Monday and Tuesdays about every week.

Also well done to the sponsors and operators for the funds and incentives offered as you mentioned. Smaller yards must also be able to raid should they have a runner who they feel can compete in the big races. 
 

Good start for punters at Durbanville today as the backed horse came through to win the first race. Will keep an eye on Kituba for future races, not placed today but think he will run a much better race next time out. Just a few thoughts on the next 2 races for interest today. Feels like the type of card that can produce a few results:

Race 2 - Prairie Dawn (22/10) the rightful favorite with in-form Andrew Fortune abroad. From a better draw, Mercenary (33/10) should give him a run for his money. Bonelli has attracted money from 7/1 in to 9/2. Will take swingers and exactas with these three and hope for a punters result with the top 3 in the betting making the frame. 

Race 3 - Who Is She (8/1) ran a good 4th last time out, the form of that race not too bad. E/W value and feel she could make the quartet at least once again. Greek Heiress (13/2), with 61.5kg on her back has the form and course experience which could count in her favor. 

Good punting. 

Agree we at least one centre short in the ideal world Jacques, hopefully the horse population can warrant a revival one day and Kimberley would be great but I think its a long shot, hope I'm wrong.

Well played R2 at Durbanville, I haven't had chance to have a look at the card.

Highveld meetings this week switched to Vaal from Turffontein, here is  Winning Form preview .for Thursday

 

Winning Form preview for Fairview on Friday  is available here

A reminder that racing is from the Vaal on Saturday (switched from Turffontein) . the Winning Form preview  is available here

Sunday's Winning form preview for Scottsville  is available here

has to be said - The Met field make up is quite a disappointment. 11 runners, 1 trainer half the field. not great. think it's playing 2nd fiddle to some of the other graded races on card.

Nonetheless - GARRIX @ around 20/1 ew is my pick for next week. Last run flat, but off a likely hot pace from Snaith stable i think he's flying home over the 2000m with a top jock on board.

 

Not a lot of time to look at the card but will throw a few darts in at The Vaal on Saturday

R4 Prized Platinum, a look of mission impossible about this race, decent effort last time lots of equipment changes

R5 Another headwrecker but will go with veteran Bahna Bridge, continues to hold form well and think 2400 is about his best trip

R7 Buster Barnes, don't know much about this one other than 2 really good runs since relocating to SA and hopefully further improvement up in trip

R9 Too Late My Mate cracking comeback run after a lengthy break, like this appy, no weight today

R10 Golden Aspen, unlucky last time, should be in the mix if this race doesn't come to soon.

Enjoy the horses if you playing 

thanks chris. will try a couple - 

race 7 - BAKWENA @ 20/1 ew. on mocha blend formline is very close to favourite so am surprised by big price but no harm done at these odds.

race 9 - SUNSET RIOT @ 14/1 ew. clearly well thought of as yard been happy to raid with him, might need run but will take a chance on his fitness.