Super Rugby Final plus other rugby

Brent Graham wrote: WSB open -13.5

I suspect that will come in to start closer to 10

Opened -14.5 in UK

Have had a decent go on the Jags plus @ 1.95

Also snapped up the Jags +14.5.

Had a much easier game this am, Saders had to dig deep v Canes, Crotty went off injured, not sure re his status but they missed him 2nd half.

Have followed Jags +14.5 on tab nz.

Jaguares have momentum and history working for them. Their territory kicking game against Brumbies was outstanding and will test Saders. Home ground, home record will keep Saders safe, but +14.5 is not a real final. Has been an amazing season and do not think final will disappoint!

The Crusaders could be without established All Blacks Ryan Crotty and Scott Barrett for the Super Rugby final after both damaged a hand in their exciting semi-final defeat of the Hurricanes.
Crotty (thumb) and lock Barrett (finger) were to learn the extent of their injuries when x-ray results return tomorrow, after they failed to finish the 30-26 win in Christchurch.
Broken bones would rule them out of Saturday's home decider against the Jaguares and could impact on their availability for the All Blacks, who begin their pre- World Cup program in July.

Two AB's and serious glue in the Sader team. Take the 14+ jags while you can get it.

southpaw wrote: Also snapped up the Jags +14.5.

Had a much easier game this am, Saders had to dig deep v Canes, Crotty went off injured, not sure re his status but they missed him 2nd half.

Both Barrett and Crotty out. I’m now at max bet on a combo of +14.5 and +15.5 Jags.

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Also snapped up the Jags +14.5.

Had a much easier game this am, Saders had to dig deep v Canes, Crotty went off injured, not sure re his status but they missed him 2nd half.

Both Barrett and Crotty out. I’m now at max bet on a combo of +14.5 and +15.5 Jags.

Key Crusaders and All Blacks Ryan Crotty and Scott Barrett have been ruled out of Saturday's Super Rugby final against the Jaguares and, in Crotty's case, the entire Rugby Championship after X-rays on their hands confirmed the worst. Source: NZ Herald online 2/7/2019

My first thought over the weekend was that the Crusaders will win comfortably, but the handicap has come out too high, especially with the two players that's out for the Crusaders.

I'm on Jaguares +14.5 at 9/10 and +14 (tie in play) at 19/20. Have also taken Jaguares over 16.5 points at 5/6. Jaguares have scored their fair share of points and Crusaders defence hasn't been as invincible as always the last few weeks. Rain predicted for Christchurch during the day, but looks like it will have cleared by game time. Field would have been wet from the dew regardless. And add to the mix that Peyper has been appointed the ref.

much easier this week to find 15/10 on +9.5, so I'm on it early

hanrick wrote: My first thought over the weekend was that the Crusaders will win comfortably, but the handicap has come out too high, especially with the two players that's out for the Crusaders.

I'm on Jaguares +14.5 at 9/10 and +14 (tie in play) at 19/20. Have also taken Jaguares over 16.5 points at 5/6. Jaguares have scored their fair share of points and Crusaders defence hasn't been as invincible as always the last few weeks. Rain predicted for Christchurch during the day, but looks like it will have cleared by game time. Field would have been wet from the dew regardless. And add to the mix that Peyper has been appointed the ref.

To the "points boys", Hanrick & BG:

Hope to see you back on the Handicap this week Hanrick.
In case your not what is your view on Crusader points and total points?

BG, you nailed the Crusader points last week! Any thoughts?

Do you have stats you can share with us on the "Peyper" factor?

I feel that no Crotty is a big hole in the run on side for the final. Goodhue is only a 13 at International level and was a disaster against Canes when moved to 12 last weekend. Veteran 12 Bateman has not had enough game time. Maybe they are thinking Havali to 12 and Bridge to 15. New AB Ennor in the starting line is the only silver lining. Ennor looks silky enough to play 12 but not a minute at that position that I am aware of. Just made AB's as a utility!
Worse yet Jaguares mid-field were in top gear last weekend.

Romano not a "Scooter" but a choice replacement in the pack and good mates with Whitelock.

Cheers & good punting, 3P.

PS Christchurch weather 40% chance showers = no worse than the dew.. 8 degrees forecast could be a shock for Jags.

Found some interesting Jaco Peyper stats:

The Jaguares are 1-4 ATS under Jaco Peyper across the last two seasons

The Crusaders are 2-4 ATS when refereed by Jaco Peyper the last two seasons

Home sides are 18-4-1 straight up in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

Home sides are 14-9 ATS in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

The under is 7-4 in the last 11 Crusaders games

The under is 5-2 in the last 7 Jaguares games

The under is 16-7 in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

That +15 on the Jags as soon as the caps came out looks awful good now. Spread now down to +12 on bet365..

Absolute madness in my opinion. This Jags side will keep this one close and i can see it being very smiliar to the Saders v Canes game last week

Thanks for the great show guys. I'm with Oracle on this one although maybe a bit closer than he says. I think there are a few chinks in the Crusaders armour and the Jags have the passion, improved their discipline and the attacking backline to win this one.

Why was Oracle creeping around in dark in the garden like Blair-witch project?! Enjoyed his enthusiasm though!

Didn’t watch whole video but also will be considering high jag points but maxes bet on plus 14.5 and 15.5 so would be really exposed.

Taken some 25/1 Argentina that hanrick pointed out.

Hi guys,

Also gone for the + and Jag points.

Adding a penalty to be scored before 19 mins with bet365 at 17/20. Penalty has been scored before 22 mins in all 4 of the knockout games involving these two so far. Notably the crusaders have kicked in the 3rd min in both the quarter and semi. No reason to think they won’t have a similar mindset here! Any thoughts?

threepeat wrote: Found some interesting Jaco Peyper stats:

The Jaguares are 1-4 ATS under Jaco Peyper across the last two seasons

The Crusaders are 2-4 ATS when refereed by Jaco Peyper the last two seasons

Home sides are 18-4-1 straight up in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

Home sides are 14-9 ATS in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

The under is 7-4 in the last 11 Crusaders games

The under is 5-2 in the last 7 Jaguares games

The under is 16-7 in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

That's very interesting threepeat. What does ATS mean?

Good Day Gents/ladies
Big Big Crusaders day tomorrow, We gonna see a run away win for the first time in Superugby history. This Jags team do not have the oemf for a final, they playing rugby that we know teams played in round 2 and 3 of regular season. I cannot see how they will stay in 14 mark. Crusaders going to play for the city with the Peypers factor , 12+ for the Saders.Advantages that Saders have , they came thru 2 big ,tested games that have prepared them well for the final. They know how ,what and when to strike and how to contain and retain energy. The Jags was not tested and they going to feel it this weekend.
I don not know what Oracle was smoking last evening ,but Jags have no chance. Not outside Argentina.
Crußaders -12,5 the play.

Ruan Fourie wrote:

threepeat wrote: Found some interesting Jaco Peyper stats:

The Jaguares are 1-4 ATS under Jaco Peyper across the last two seasons

The Crusaders are 2-4 ATS when refereed by Jaco Peyper the last two seasons

Home sides are 18-4-1 straight up in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

Home sides are 14-9 ATS in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

The under is 7-4 in the last 11 Crusaders games

The under is 5-2 in the last 7 Jaguares games

The under is 16-7 in all games refereed by Jaco Peyper in the last two seasons

That's very interesting threepeat. What does ATS mean?

Hey Ruan, That would be Kiwi for Against The Spread (more commonly called the line).Currently -14.5 for the big game. All stats taken from tab nz website. Cheers 3P

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Also snapped up the Jags +14.5.

Had a much easier game this am, Saders had to dig deep v Canes, Crotty went off injured, not sure re his status but they missed him 2nd half.

Both Barrett and Crotty out. I’m now at max bet on a combo of +14.5 and +15.5 Jags.

Going to sit on the cap as main bet and then for bigger priced interests -

Man of match -
Todd 10/1
Matera 22/1

1st try Codie Taylor 18/1

At the end of the day it boils down to desire. Both teams are really well coached and managed. Crotty and Barett is a bit of a equalizer in terms of personnel. But I think the Jags want this more. The Crusaders have been there and done that but this might be their undoing tomorrow.

yep on matera for tries too and Lavanini
motm 80s honda jags

landrews77 wrote: Good Day Gents/ladies
Big Big Crusaders day tomorrow, We gonna see a run away win for the first time in Superugby history. This Jags team do not have the oemf for a final, they playing rugby that we know teams played in round 2 and 3 of regular season. I cannot see how they will stay in 14 mark. Crusaders going to play for the city with the Peypers factor , 12+ for the Saders.Advantages that Saders have , they came thru 2 big ,tested games that have prepared them well for the final. They know how ,what and when to strike and how to contain and retain energy. The Jags was not tested and they going to feel it this weekend.
I don not know what Oracle was smoking last evening ,but Jags have no chance. Not outside Argentina.
Crußaders -12,5 the play.

Totally agree with you on this one. My bets that I took on them at the start of the season to win the title am going to let them ride just as I did last year. Despite what the forum is saying they are not going to lose this one as their desire to win is very much there. Straight after last year's win they were talking about how to win the 3-peat. The weather is the only thing holding me back but I have already taken them to win 11-20, to win both halves, and I will be looking at taking the minus 7.5 in the second half.

I only slept two hours and now at the airport on the way to Manchester. What we won’t do for them! Starting to think I’m way too involved with the Jags!

Jags +13.5
Jags +12.5
Jags win 4/1
Anytime drop 18/10
Jags over 17.5 FT
Jags over 7.5 HT

Time of 1st penalty before 17:30 min @ 7/10 at WSB

Brent Graham wrote: I would have to say that this handicap is very well set - seems to be an even distribution of punters on both sides of the line - anybody in Christchurch with a weather update?

I'm not in Christchurch unfortunately (was there for the Quarter final) but have been monitoring all day. It was raining early on with showers but has cleared up. Check these for live cam and weather radar:

www.takeabreak.co.nz/webcams/71/christchurch_webcam

www.metservice.com/maps-radar/rain-radar/canterbury

Brent Graham wrote: I would have to say that this handicap is very well set - seems to be an even distribution of punters on both sides of the line - anybody in Christchurch with a weather update?

Rain showers have stopped in Christchurch, and further rain is highly unlikely. However there has been enough showers during the day to make it wet underfoot. It is bloody cold, officially 8 degrees. but feels colder. The line @tab nz has not moved and is still at -14.5.

threepeat wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: I would have to say that this handicap is very well set - seems to be an even distribution of punters on both sides of the line - anybody in Christchurch with a weather update?

Rain showers have stopped in Christchurch, and further rain is highly unlikely. However there has been enough showers during the day to make it wet underfoot. It is bloody cold, officially 8 degrees. but feels colder. The line @tab nz has not moved and is still at -14.5.

Threepeat are you in Christchurch? If so are you going to the game?

Have been quiet of late as I have the needle , have been limited everywhere and fed up , however have managed to get a decent bet at plus 14.5 Jags

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Also snapped up the Jags +14.5.

Had a much easier game this am, Saders had to dig deep v Canes, Crotty went off injured, not sure re his status but they missed him 2nd half.

Both Barrett and Crotty out. I’m now at max bet on a combo of +14.5 and +15.5 Jags.

Going to sit on the cap as main bet and then for bigger priced interests -

Man of match -
Todd 10/1
Matera 22/1

1st try Codie Taylor 18/1

South you strike again. Well done

Well done South ! Unreal call .

The plus cap looking precarious as the jag's don't appear likely to score whilst you just know the Crusaders will , still got hope but fading fast.

Well done kt6747 with the Codie Taylor pick. And well done for the Saders backers, That guys know how to win a final and how to bring money in people 's pockets. Crouch Critic ,you are a champion when it comes to analysing a rugby game, keep up your good work, Thank you Crouch.

Awful end to super rugby for me , despite going through an awful run , one in which i have not experienced ever in 30 years of punting , i have the distinction of still having my accounts limited to R200 or less by the following bet.co.za, gbets, betxchange, sportingbet, sportsbet, wsb, betolimp, sunbet , betway, supabets.... it;s an absolute joke .

And of course did my nuts on the plus 14.5 .

Need a break, see you guys again at the world cup.

Granny's secondary pension just took a nosedive and another turn for the worse it would seem lol

Thanks guys but was all Southpaws, I was just lucky to get him in GGGaming competition.

Unlucky on the handicap just missing there lads - think most got hurt on that one!

South you absolute beautyyy - lovely call on Taylor and Matera!!

The Betolimp Special play came in so nice enough for me but the best part is seeing the odd account grow by a bit as a few of the long terms come in.

Thanks for all the great input throughout the season guys its always great hearing the thoughts of other punters as you mull over you own plays.

Shot lads!! And well done any other winners.

An 18/1 and 22/1 winner should have seen me on the champagne already but did take a hit on jags plus. Still a really good result overall.

Role on rugby champs next.