Super Rugby AU week 10, Pro 14, Eng Prem 04-06 September

Bradie,

Do you bet Top 14 too? Would be interested to hear your thoughts for those games as well.

Cheers.

Dizzle

Top 14 Round 1

No form to go on yet so not firing too hard at these but we go:

Stade Francais v Bordeaux -3.5
Stig line: -7
Tip: Minus 3.5

Montpellier 16.5 v Pau
Stig line: 12
Tip: Plus 16.5

La Rochelle 5.5 v Toulon
Stig line: 4
Tip: Plus 5.5

Agen 2.5 v Castres
Stig line: -3
Tip: Plus 2.5

Lyon 4.5 v Racing92
Stig line: -11
Tip: Plus 4.5

Brive 7.5 v Bayonne
Stig line: 6
Tip: Plus 7.5

Clermont 4.5 v Toulouse
Stig line: -2
Tip: Plus 4.5

Going forward my picks will also be on my blog spot
www.goodforthegame.co.za/Blogs/Betting-Stig/

Dizzle wrote: Bradie,

Do you bet Top 14 too? Would be interested to hear your thoughts for those games as well.

Cheers.

Dizzle

Yes I do and will share my thoughts during the week

Guinness Pro 14

Semi-finals

Leinster 7.5 v Munster
Stig line: 12
Tip: Leinster minus 7.5

Edinburgh 3.5 v Ulster
Stig line: 6
Tip: Edinburgh minus 3.5

North Island -1.5 at 0.76.

Too much grunt in the pack.

I m gonna with a simple approach on pro14 : Leinster x Edinburgh @ 1.95

Leinster has been impressive and with James Ryan, Dan Leavy and Tadhg Furlong all possibilities to play Friday, can't see the Munster winning that one.
On the other hand, I have been disappointed by Ulster in the last 2 games and home ground advantage for the Scottish

bradie82 wrote: I m gonna with a simple approach on pro14 : Leinster x Edinburgh @ 1.95

Leinster has been impressive and with James Ryan, Dan Leavy and Tadhg Furlong all possibilities to play Friday, can't see the Munster winning that one.
On the other hand, I have been disappointed by Ulster in the last 2 games and home ground advantage for the Scottish

In agreement here. Ulster were playing some great rugby pre lockdown but don’t seem to have come back with much intensity and Edinburgh have been building a very strong squad

bradie82 wrote: I m gonna with a simple approach on pro14 : Leinster x Edinburgh @ 1.95

Leinster has been impressive and with James Ryan, Dan Leavy and Tadhg Furlong all possibilities to play Friday, can't see the Munster winning that one.
On the other hand, I have been disappointed by Ulster in the last 2 games and home ground advantage for the Scottish

I put the same bet on earlier. Glad to see others agree with this approach!

I had £20 on at 100 to 1 in-play for Leicester to beat Gloucester once Ben Youngs came on (and George Ford and Jordan Taufua were already on), which was looking amazing for about 2 mins when they got back to within 6 points, before they then subsequently pissed it away! Haha

Here are the caps for the Top 14
I m gonna give a first go with my first thoughts but very hard to predict after 6 months without playing + actual Covid situation in France.
Bare in mind that in the past 5 seasons, there was always a surprise in the first round : Bayonne winning at Racing last year, Racing winning at Toulon easily in 2018, Lyon winning at Stade Francais in 2017, Bayonne beating Toulon in 2016 or Clermont smashing La Rochelle away in 2015. When you see how hard it is to win away in the top14, this means that the first few rounds are almost unpredictable.
Therefore, I would suggest to spend max 0.5u on any game as too many unknown variables here.

Stade Francais +3.5 vs Bordeaux – game is postponed but would have taken Bordeaux on the board around 1.62 – main reason is that Stade Francais could not play any single friendly with 19 players who tested positives while UBB played twice with 2 win against Biarritz and Clermont

Montpellier -15.5 vs Pau – first thought is that this handicap is quite high for a first game especially as Pau managed to play 3 friendly games while Montpellier played only once vs Aurillac. That said, with a heavy pack, an impressive backline and the combination Reinach / Pollard, Montpellier could be scoring a lot – lets see how it goes on the first game but will keep an eye on the over points all season.

La Rochelle -5.5 vs Toulon – Toulon H would be my move here but without team news, this is a very hard one to call. La Rochelle is almost unbeatable at home but with only 5000 fans allowed in the stadium (all home games have been sold out for the past 2/3 years), this would be a different story this time. On top of that, La Rochelle played only 1 friendly game (lost 38-0 vs Toulouse) while Toulon managed to play 3, 2 vs porD2 teams and an internal game)

Agen -2.5 vs Castres – the first idea that comes here is UNDER as I can’t see Castres scoring loads this season + Castres like to slow games + both team will try to avoid relegation this season – Agen made a smart recruitment, always hard to win there while Castres has been almost inexistent on the transfer window. So Agen on the board and under would be my move

Lyon -5.5 vs Racing – just got the new that few Lyon players tested positive for Covid last Friday (no idea who yet) so it means they won’t be able to play this week end and of top of that, no training as full squad until Friday so this could have an impact while Racing should bring the big squad. Racing played 2 friendly games, won twice (35-26 against Lyon) Racing H is my early move this week but not sure the game will be played yet

Brive -7.5 vs Bayonne – This is slightly too high cap on this game – I like the recruitment of Bayonne and as those 2 teams will fight to avoid relegation, any bonus points will be important at the end of the situation.

Clermont -4.5 vs Toulouse – my initial idea last week was to take Toulouse H but as 3 players have now been tested positive for Covid (no idea who yet), I think the H look like a coinflip to me so would rather look at over points/tries but lets see what the bookies will propose.

Below are all the results from the friendly games for the top14 teams

14th August
Biarritz (ProD2) - UBB : 12-48
Bayonne - Pau : 19-33
Agen - Castres : 5-7
Brive-Valence (ProD2) : 36-12
Toulon - Grenoble (ProD2) : 38-38 (3 x 30 minutes)

15th August:
Béziers (ProD2) - Toulouse : 21-43

21st August:
Lyon - Racing 92 : 26-35
Biarritz (ProD2) - Pau : 5-7
Bayonne - Agen : 19-19
Toulon - Provence Rugby (ProD2) : 47-5
Montpellier - Aurillac (ProD2) : 19-13

22nd August:
UBB - Clermont : 27-13
La Rochelle - Toulouse : 0-38

27th August:
Pau - Castres : 12-14

28th August:
Brive - Racing 92 : 19-31

Here are my projected caps for the Gallagher Premiership
Please note that this is the first round of another block of three games played in 10 days, followed the next week end by the European Cups

Worcester +10 vs Bristol
Saints +8 vs Exeter
Saracens -11 vs Wasps
Harlequins +1 vs Bath
Leicester +6 vs Sale
Gloucester -15 vs London Irish

Next 2 rounds

Bristol vs Saints
Exeter vs Gloucester
Wasps vs Leicester
Sale vs Saracens
Bath vs Worcester
London Irish vs Harlequins

Wasps vs Bristol
Leicester vs Saints
Sale vs Bath
London Irish vs Worcester
Saracens vs Exeter
Gloucester vs Harlequins

Still a while away but two plays for me on the Champions Cup playoffs:

Leinster -6.5.

This is based on the news that just emerged that even if the Sarries win the comp, they can't qualify next season as they are in the championship. Was not impressed with Sarries first choice against LI and Leinster a well oiled machine.

Chiefs -13.5

Saints have been one of the worst sides after the restart. Can't see this being too much of a task at Sandy Park. Chiefs one of the best sides in Europe.

North v South Island -

Teams named, north side looks stronger although South side may be better prepared with a solid Saders foundation. I like these odds -

North 1-12 win @ 19/10 with Sunbet.

Tough to pick a winner in Reds/Brumbies and North/South

Reckon both will be close and taking either side by 7 or less in both fixtures.

14/10 a piece. Also including it in a treble with Leinster outright which comes to 7.1/1

I’m on the South Island +3.5. Not just because they’re the Crusaders with Jordie Barrett and Brad Weber, but they clearly have the better tight five. Tupou Va’ai being the second best North Island lock is quite concerning.

ProdD2

Biarritz vs Perpignan

2 small bet
Biarritz -5.5 @1.87
Biarritz HT/FT @ 1.85

Biarritz brings the best squad, played few friendly games while Perpignan is leaving some of the big guns (scrum half, fly half, backs,...) home and had only 1 friendly game played few weeks ago

Took some Saints win @ 2.10 when Betfair opened
They've been poor, but I expect Boyd to have them ready for this one.
Chiefs bench much weaker also.

Other bet for the weekend is Edinburgh win @ 1.91
(Took this last week, couldn't believe it was originally priced up as choice)

Saints to beat Chiefs at 8/10

Bears +11.5 at 9/10

I fully agree Shezadude, the South is a better couch team ,Brad knows these guys ,the back line is steady,they know each other as well. How long will North Island centres take to gell? For me South team has an attitude to never stop playing and has the ability to make smart decisions . The South all the way and also taken +3,5 @ 0,85 holles.The 0,65 win for the North is scary.
South win ,
South +3,5

I think Aaron Smith off bench for North swings it for me. On the North 1-12 win @ 19/10 and looking for some points lines in this one.

Under 51.5 points in Saints - Chiefs at 0.73

Anything above 50 points in a night fixture is worth taking. Saints been big unders merchants this season and Chiefs defense (albeit a second string side) is good enough.

Fully agree with your statement TOS

But will go with the Saints under as I can't see them scoring loads

Saints under 26.5 @ 1.83

Taken Sale -5.5 v tigers at 8/10 at hollies

Over 49.5 points in NZ North v South at 1.84

Leinster vs Munster

James Ryan, Dan Leavy and Tadhg Furlong could not be recovered for this match.
Regardless, the handicap at +8.5 seems a tad too big for me.

Bet 1: Munster +8.5 @1.84
Bet 2: Total Under 43.5 @1.87

I also like Leinster 1-12 @2.63, and took a bit of that.

southpaw wrote: I think Aaron Smith off bench for North swings it for me. On the North 1-12 win @ 19/10 and looking for some points lines in this one.

Added Over 49.5 @ 5/6

Rebels vs Force

Maybe exactly because there isn't much at stake I feel like taking the overs here, not a big number anyway.

Over 49.5 @1.90

Reds vs Brumbies

In the same vein, nothing to play for, Over 46.5 @1.80.
Also, either team by 6 or less @2.60.

Agen vs Castres

Under 47.5 @ 1.93

Small stake on it as first game for 6 months for both teams but as I sais Thursday night, the under would be my move on that game if around 47.5

On the same game, for those who have a Paddy, betfair or bet365 account (maybe available outside Europe as well), i like then neither team to reach 30 @ 1.80

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: I think Aaron Smith off bench for North swings it for me. On the North 1-12 win @ 19/10 and looking for some points lines in this one.

Added Over 49.5 @ 5/6

Overs lands comfortably, bigger of my 2 punts but a North comeback would be nice this last 18min.

Edinburgh - Ulster under 44.5 at 15/20

Taking Leicester tigers under 20.5 points at 1.8 vs sale.

Sale great defense, ian tempest on the whistle. This bet wins in their last 4/5 H2Hs and in 9/10 of tigers last matches.

What an amazing finish for the South backers, poor old Ash Dixen will remember that skew lineout for a while ..

Def on the unders in Edinburgh, 42.5 looks golden.
On the Sale minus 7.5 , the Tigers are rubbish.
Unders 56.5 in Sarries game.
Smalls London Irish plus 9.5

Taking Under 50.5 points in Quins v Bath. Should be a very tightly contested match

Gallagher Premiership Results

Round 18 - 5/6 = 83%

Since the break - 22/30 = 73%

2019/2020 season - 68/108 = 63%

Waking up to an almost entirely green bet report on Sunbet and a return of 124%.

12 bets and a hefty acca laid, and only 3 wrong: The 2 Ozzie games and a small Edinburgh bet. I should have listened to the Oracle and have taken opposite to my picks in Oz games. These Ozzies have knocked me off my top spot on most of my Superbru teams too - urgh

My most special thanks to 3Peat for the North/South game, Monseur Bradie, the SuperStig, The Conductor and TOS for all the others (apologies if I missed you out). I only bet on my picks when I got confirmation from those guys - you're all proper champions.

Please keep up this good work, I'm enjoying the winning immensely.

Cheers Gents, SALUTE, Sante'

coil wrote: What an amazing finish for the South backers, poor old Ash Dixen will remember that skew lineout for a while ..

Def on the unders in Edinburgh, 42.5 looks golden.
On the Sale minus 7.5 , the Tigers are rubbish.
Unders 56.5 in Sarries game.
Smalls London Irish plus 9.5

Managed to still have an ok weekend, however was stiffer than a honeymoon kok in three games ..

Backed the North outright at 15/20,
Went unders the Castres game at 47.5 ...landed on 48.5
Had a double into Edinburgh to win ... What a fightback by Ulster.
A couple of French games today but will have a look later or listen to Bradies fancies again on the Handicap shop.

Multiple sports Acca -

Bayonne +7.5
Toulouse +3.5
Hamilton f1win
Australia t20 win

@ 7/1

Brive - Bayonne

Under 50.5 at 8/10.

Bayonne +7.5 seems to be like the right move today
Laranjeira, Olding and fa'aoso all out this game and those are 3 key players for Brive while Bayonne brings a more than decent squad

On the other game, Raka, Penaud and Yato all out for Clermont, with Toulouse bringing a strong squad with a better bench - as mentioned on the show, was looking at an over here so Toulouse over 22.5 could be good I reckon

Once again, as we ve seen in the first games, as anything can happen, smal play on any bet taken ob this Top14

[/ol]Anyone know what tv channel screens the Top 14 ? It’s impossible trying a google search.
Many thanks