In this blog we recap the week 1 action and look ahead to week 2 where the standout fixture is France v South Africa.
BET: Wales v Argentina
Posted 09 Nov 11h15
2 units Wales to win at 3.1/1 at Betxchange
Yesterday was a mixed bag for me, with England overs the big disappointment. Unders arrived in France (what a win for the Boks) and the either-team-by-7-or-less landed in Italy, but overall I’m down a bit as England anchored a few accas.
Wales were +11.5 against Argentina earlier in the week and they have been backed into +9.5. Welsh international rugby is at a serious low ebb, but I quite like the team they’ve selected and I give them a shout against an Argentina side that has claimed some big scalps this year.
The points line is 52.5, which looks about right. I’m not getting too involved here, but I will have a punt on Wales to win the game.
I am also considering a try scorer bet and will post that later if I pull the trigger.
BET: Italy v Australia
Posted 08 Nov 08h32
2 units Tribet – Either team to win by 7 or less at 1.87/1 at Supersportbet
When the line opened at Australia -15.5 I thought it was high, but I never got involved, and the current -9.5 feels about right to me. Australia have had a long, hard season and looked jaded against England. Italy will be well up for this, and I’ve even thrown Italy to win into a monster 58/1 treble in the forum thread.
The points line is 54.5, and in what looks like cold but clear conditions, that also feels well set. I have a feeling this is going to be a close one, so I’m backing no more than seven points to separate the sides at the whistle.
I may be back with more on this game closer to kickoff.
BET: Scotland v New Zealand
Posted 08 Nov
0.5 unit Samisoni Taukei’aho – Last New Zealand Try Scorer at 12/1 at Pokerbet
You can probably tell from this bet that I have no firm views on the match. The All Blacks have gradually firmed through the week from –6.5 to –8.5, and the total points line sits at 51.5. I had originally leaned towards overs, but possible showers have put me off.
It’s too big a game not to have an interest, but I’ll miss at least the first half. With that in mind, I’m taking a speculative play on Taukei’aho to score the last New Zealand try. The reserve hooker often gets a shot from a maul late in the contest, and at 12/1 this feels a fair way to get involved.
BET: Ireland v Japan
Posted 07 Nov 21h53
1.5 units Stockdale – First Half Try Scorer at 2/1 at Sportingbet
(Find it under Ireland v Japan → Match Specials)
The handicap sits at Ireland -39.5 with total points at 64.5. Conditions look good and I expect Ireland to score plenty, but their team points line of 52.5 is just a touch too high for my liking.
Instead, I’m taking a stab at Jacob Stockdale to score in the first half. He’s 4/6 anytime, so the 2/1 for him to cross before the break looks a solid bit of value. With Ireland likely to generate early dominance and Japan struggling defensively, I’m hoping Stockdale takes his chance on the wing with both hands.
BET: France v South Africa
Posted 07 Nov 07h17
4 units Under 53.5 points at 0.87/1 at WSB
I haven’t looked forward to a game this much since the Lions v Griquas Currie Cup Final (that’s the beauty of sports betting, any game can become a monster).
The betting has been fairly stable all week, but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been activity. The handicap has bounced from South Africa –0.5 to France –0.5 and is now generally the Boks –0.5 again.
These sides have played some high-scoring clashes recently, including that famous 29–28 Bok win in the RWC23 quarter-final, but looking at the team the Boks have picked, the pre-game hype, and the possibility of showers, I’m expecting a high-intensity battle where defense has the final say.
53 points or less in the game is my call.
BET: England v Fiji
Posted 07 Nov 07h02
5 units England over 40.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
I’m getting this bet down early as I agree with Southpaw’s forum post that the line is likely to shift. England are currently –23.5 on the handicap after opening –20.5, but it’s the points market I’m focusing on here.
Fiji have plenty of attacking weapons, but I expect England to wear them down and pull clear. Total points is 57.5 but iIn what looks like good conditions, I’m backing England to score 41 points or more.
If you want to follow get your bet down early this one will move.
Autumn Internationals – Lineups, Officials and Weather
Posted 06 Nov 23h08
Ireland v Japan – Aviva Stadium, 14:40
Lineups:
Ireland: 15 Jamie Osborne, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Tom Farrell, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Caelan Doris (captain), 7 Nick Timoney, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Finlay Bealham, 19 Cian Prendergast, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Caolin Blade, 22 Sam Prendergast, 23 Jimmy O’Brien
Japan: 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki, 14 Kippei Ishida, 13 Dylan Riley (vice-captain), 12 Charlie Lawrence, 11 Tomoki Osada, 10 Seung-sin Lee (vice-captain), 9 Naoto Saito, 8 Faulua Makisi, 7 Kanji Shimokawa, 6 Ben Gunter, 5 Warner Dearns (captain), 4 Epineri Uluiviti, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 2 Kenji Sato, 1 Kenta Kobayashi
Replacements: 16 Shodai Hirao, 17 Ryosuke Iwaihara, 18 Keijiro Tamefusa, 19 Jack Cornelsen, 20 Micheal Leitch, 21 Shinobu Fujiwara, 22 Shinya Komura, 23 Yuya Hirose
Weather: Cool 12 degrees, possible showers, humidity late 70;s
Match Officials:
Referee: Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Andrea Piardi (Italy), Federico Vedovelli (Italy)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)
Handicap: Ireland -39.5
Points: 65.5
Scotland v New Zealand – Murrayfield, 17:10
Lineups:
Scotland:
15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Rory Hutchinson, 12 Sione Tuipulotu (captain), 11 Kyle Steyn, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White,
8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Matt Fagerson, 6 Gregor Brown, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Scott Cummings, 3 D’Arcy Rae, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 Pierre Schoeman
Replacements: 16 George Turner, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Marshall Sykes, 20 Rory Darge, 21 Josh Bayliss, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Tom Jordan
New Zealand:
15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cam Roigard,
8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea (captain), 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Billy Proctor, 23 Damian McKenzie
Weather: Cool at 9 degrees, possible showers, humidity early 80's
Match Officials:
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant referees: Pierre Brousset (France), Morné Ferreira (South Africa)
TMO: Marius van der Westhuizen (South Africa)
Handicap: Scotland +7.5
Points: 51.5
Italy v Australia – Bluenergy Stadium, 19:40
Lineups:
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Ross Vintcent, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Alessandro Izekor, 21 Martin Page-Relo, 22 Tommaso Allan, 23 Leonardo Marin
Australia: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Corey Toole, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Hunter Paisami, 11 Harry Potter, 10 Carter Gordon, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Jeremy Williams, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Matt Faessler, 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Billy Pollard, 17 Aidan Ross, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Rob Valetini, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Filipo Daugunu
Weather: Cool at 10 degrees, dry, humidity mid 70's
Match Officials:
Referee: Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Adam Leal (England), George Selwood (England)
TMO: Dan Jones (England)
Handicap: Italy +10.5
Points: 54.5
England v Fiji – Allianz Stadium, 19:40
Lineups:
England: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Chandler Cunningham-South, 7 Ben Earl, 6 Guy Pepper, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Alex Coles, 3 Joe Heyes, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge (co-captain)
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Asher Opoku-Fordjour, 19 Maro Itoje (co-captain), 20 Tom Curry, 21 Henry Pollock, 22 Ben Spencer, 23 Henry Arundell
Fiji: 15 Salesi Rayasi, 14 Selestino Ravutaumada, 13 Kalaveti Ravouvou, 12 Josua Tuisova, 11 Jiuta Wainiqolo; 10 Caleb Muntz, 9 Simi Kuruvoli, 8 Viliame Mata, 7 Elia Canakaivata, 6 Kitione Salawa, 5 Temo Mayanavanua, 4 Isoa Nasilasila; 3 Mesake Doge, 2 Tevita Ikanivere, 1 Eroni Mawi
Replacements: 16 Zuriel Togiatama, 17 Hereiti Hetet, 18 Samuela Tawake, 19 Mesake Vocevoce, 20 Motikai Murray, 21 Sam Wye, 22 Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula, 23 Sireli Maqala
Weather: Cool at 11 degrees, clear and dry, humidity early 80's
Match Officials:
Referee: Paul Williams (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Luc Ramos (France), Katsuki Furuse (Japan)
TMO: Mike Adamson (Scotland)
Handicap: England -21.5
Points: 58.5
France v South Africa – Stade de France, 22:10
Lineups:
France: 15 Tomas Ramos, 14 Damien Penaud, 13 Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12 Gaël Fickou, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Romain Ntamack, 9 Nolann le Garrec, 8 Mickaël Guillard, 7 Paul Boudehent, 6 Anthony Jelonch, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Régis Montagne, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Baptiste Erdocio
Replacements: 16 Guillaume Cramont, 17 Jean-Baptiste Gros, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Hugo Auradou, 21 Oscar Jegou, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Nicolas Depoortère
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Boan Venter
Replacements: 16 Johan Grobbelaar, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Ruan Nortje, 21 Andre Esterhuizen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Manie Libbok
Weather: Cool at 11 degrees, possible showers, humidity late 80's
Match Officials:
Referee: Angus Gardner (Australia)
Assistant referees: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia), Christophe Ridley (England)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
Handicap: France +0.5
Points: 52.5
Wales v Argentina – Principality Stadium, 17:10
Lineups:
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Jac Morgan (captain), 6 Alex Mann, 5 Adam Beard, 4 Dafydd Jenkins, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake, 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Liam Belcher, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Olly Cracknell, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Louis Rees-Zammit
Argentina: 15 Santiago Carreras, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Justo Piccardo, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Geronimo Prisciantelli, 9 Simon Cruz Benitez, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 7 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 6 Pablo Matera (vice-captain), 5 Marcos Kremer, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Pedro Delgado, 2 Julián Montoya (captain), 1 Mayco Vivas.
Replacements: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Thomas Gallo, 18 Tomas Rapetti, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Santiago Grondona, 21 Agustin Moyano, 22 Juan Cruz Mallia, 23 Rodrigo Isgro
Weather:
Match Officials:
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Karl Dickson (England), Anthony Woodthorpe (England)
TMO: Quinton Immelman (South Africa)
Handicap: Wales +11.5
Points: 51.5
Betting Update
Posted 06 Nov 08h49
Below the latest handicaps with comparisons with early lines.
-
Ireland v Japan: Ireland -39.5 → -39.5
-
Scotland v New Zealand: New Zealand -6.5 → -7.5
-
Italy v Australia: Australia -15.5 → -10.5 (big move towards Italy)
-
England v Fiji: England -20.5 → -23.5 (money for England)
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France v South Africa: South Africa -0.5 → -0.5 (no change, although France went -0.5 at a stage)
-
Wales v Argentina: Argentina -11.5 → -12.5
Money for Italy
Posted 03 Nov 20h18
Italy have been backed into +11.5 from +15.5 against Australia
Very little movement elsewhere
Early handicaps
Posted 02 Nov 23h01 Updated 03 Nov 08h13
Saturday, 8 November 2025
-
Ireland v Japan – Ireland -39.5
-
Scotland v New Zealand – New Zealand -6.5
- Italy v Australia - Australia -15.5
-
England v Fiji – England -20.5
-
France v South Africa – France +0.5
Sunday, 9 November 2025
-
Wales v Argentina – Wales +11.5
Autumn Internationals Betting Summary – 1 November 2025
Posted 02 Nov
It was a poor opening weekend for me, lets hope things will turn in week 2 - below a summary of the blog bets.
England v Australia
Bet: 2 units Tribet either team +7.5 at 35/20
Result: England 25–7 Australia ❌ Lost
England came out of the blocks fast and while Australia were still in the contest at halftime, they were completely blown away in the second half. The Wallabies couldn’t handle the pressure, and England’s set-piece dominance told.
South Africa v Japan
Bet: 3 units Under 64.5 points at 0.96/1
Result: South Africa 61–7 Japan ❌ Lost
The rain came as I had hoped and at 26–0 by halftime I thought the unders was on. With 2 minutes to play I needed Japan to keep possession but deep down I knew the killer blow was coming. South Africa were clinical throughout, and Japan simply couldn’t cope with the physicality.
Scotland v USA
Bet: 3 units USA over 7.5 points at 1/1
Result: Scotland 85–0 USA ❌ Lost
I only watched the second half of this one, and the USA offered absolutely nothing. With an average age of 29 and the 2031 World Cup only six years away, they’ll need a serious cleanout and rebuild. Scotland were ruthless and never let up.
Ireland v New Zealand
Bet 1: 2 units Ireland to win at 21/10
Bet 2: 1 unit Halftime/Fulltime New Zealand/Ireland at 9/1
Result: New Zealand 26–13 Ireland ❌ Both Lost
Ireland gave me hope early and led 10–7 at the break, but New Zealand finished far the stronger. The All Blacks were not as good as the scoreline suggests, but Ireland look a side on the decline compared to their peak of the last few seasons.
Double – Barbarians & Boks Unders
Bet: 1 unit Under Double at 2.7/1
Result:
- Barbarians v All Blacks XV: 52 points ✅ Win
- South Africa v Japan: 68 points ❌ Lost
Overall: ❌ Lost
The Barbarians started brightly but faded as the New Zealand XV came back to win 33–19. My only successful call of the weekend but unfortunately tied up in the double with the Bok unders.
