We are down to the final two teams in Super Rugby Pacific and there is no doubt that the two sides who will contest the final in Wellington on Saturday 20th June fully deserve their places. In this preview, we take a look at all things betting-related and share any suggested bets.
Bet: Hurricanes v Chiefs
Posted 19 June 10h21
2.5 units Hurricanes -5.5 at 9/10 at BetXchange
1.5 units under 7.5 tries at 11/10 at Pokerbet
This handicap has been fairly stable throughout the week and is very much where I set the game.
I simply cannot shake the feeling that this is the Hurricanes' season. For me, they have been a class above the rest of the competition for most of the year and have consistently found ways to dominate opponents when it matters.
That is not to take anything away from the Chiefs, who deserve enormous respect after their outstanding playoff performances. Even so, when I think back to their extra-time victory in Hamilton earlier in the season, I still felt the Hurricanes had the better of much of that contest.
My main play is therefore on the home side to win by six points or more and lift the trophy.
I also cannot quite resist another crack at the tries market, despite it proving rather costly during the playoffs.
Under 7.5 tries is available at 11/10 and I’m hoping that, at some point, we finally get a playoff game that looks and feels like a playoff game.
With very strong winds forecast, handling could become difficult and both teams may be forced into a more territorial and conservative approach than we have seen in recent weeks.
Perhaps I’m asking for trouble again, but like a lab rat I’m prepared to give the under 7.5 tries another go.
Teams, Officials, Weather and Total Points
Posted 17 June 12h19
The teams have been announced and we also have a look at the latest betting and weather forecast
Referee: Nic Berry (Australia)
Assistant referees: Reuben Keane (Australia), Louis Trisley (Australia)
TMO: Brett Cronan (Australia)
Hurricanes: 15 Callum Harkin, 14 Josh Moorby, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett (co-captain), 11 Fehi Fineanganofo,10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi (co-captain), 6 Devan Flanders, 5 Warner Dearns, 4 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Xavier Numia
Replacements: 16 Jacob Devery, 17 Siale Lauaki, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Brad Shields, 20 Brayden Iose, 21 Ereatara Enari, 22 Jone Rova, 23 Kini Naholo
Chiefs: 15 Liam Coombes-Fabling, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Kyle Brown, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Kyren Taumoefolau, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Simon Parker, 7 Luke Jacobson (captain), 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Sione Ahio, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ollie Norris
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Jared Proffit, 18 George Dyer, 19 Seuseu Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 20 Kaylum Boshier, 21 Xavier Roe, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Reon Paul
Weather: The forecast rain seems to have disappeared but there are high winds forecast 50kmph plus and also a chance of fog (I will never forget watching a final in fog many years ago, I think it was Hurricanes v Crusaders)
Temperature arround 15degrees with humidity in the 80's - click here for the forecast at Time and Date
Latest betting
Hurricanes -5.5 v Chiefs, Points 55.5
Early Betting for the Final
Posted 15 June 06h59
The bookies are in agreement with me on the handicap
Chiefs -5.5 v Hurricanes
No move for me at this point and dare I say it but I am waiting for points lines.
Semi-Final Results
Chiefs 49 Crusaders 12
The Crusaders were well backed from +6.5 to +4.5 before the line drifted slightly back out to +5.5. In the end though, none of it mattered as the Chiefs blew the game apart with a devastating first-half performance and cruised to a 49-12 victory.
I took my biggest bet in some time on under 8.5 tries and, while it looked completely dead at halftime, a much quieter second half gave me some hope before the bet was finally sunk by a late Chiefs try in the closing minutes.
Hurricanes 57 Blues 21
The Hurricanes opened around -16.5 and were heavily supported throughout the week, with some bookmakers touching -19.5 before kickoff.
I eventually got involved at the bigger number despite it not being one of my stronger fancies.
The Blues remained competitive until halftime, but once again the Hurricanes simply found another gear after the break and eventually ran away with the contest to book their place in the final.
Super Rugby Final Handicap Prediction
Hurricanes -5.5 v Chiefs
That is my early handicap prediction and it will be interesting to see where bookmakers choose to pitch the opening line.
On one hand, the Hurricanes have been the standout team all season and will enjoy home advantage in Wellington. On the other, the Chiefs have just produced the most dominant playoff performance of the year and arrive with plenty of momentum.