Leinster host the Vodacom Bulls in the URC final on Friday the 19th of June at Croke Park and in this preview we track all things betting related.
Bets: Bulls v Leinster
Posted 19 July 09h59
2 units under 47.5 points at 0.96/1 at BetXchange
1 unit Bulls win and under 47.5 points at 46/10 at Hollywoodbets
There has been steady support for the Bulls over the last 2 weeks, with the handicap moving from +8.5 to the current +5.5.
Looking at the team selections, this has all the makings of a very close contest. The forecast rain could also suit the Bulls, as slippery conditions should lead to more handling errors and, in turn, more scrums where they will back themselves to take control.
Both sides had to come through hugely demanding semi-finals to reach this stage and I’m expecting a real arm wrestle rather than an open, free-flowing encounter.
For that reason, my main play is on the total points market, where I’m looking for this game to produce 47 points or fewer.
I also think the Bulls have a genuine chance of causing an upset. If they can avoid the slow start that almost cost them against Glasgow, they have the pack and the game plan to go on the road and get the victory.
That leads to a smaller secondary play on the Bulls to win in a game that stays under the total.
Teams, Officials and Weather
Posted 19 June 08h29
Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant referees: Adam Jones (Wales), Ben Breakspear (Wales)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)
Leinster: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jamie Osborne, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Max Deegan, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Jerry Cahir.
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Alex Usanov, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Diarmuid Mangan, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Garry Ringrose
Bulls: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Stravino Jacobs, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Cameron Hanekom, 7 Elrigh Louw, 6 Marcell Coetzee (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Ruan Vermaak, 3 Francois Klopper, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp
Replacements: 16 Marco van Staden, 17 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Jeandre Rudolph, 21 Zak Burger, 22 Stedman Gans, 23 Nizaam Carr
Weather: Showers still forecast before, during and after the game - latest from Time and Date
Betting: The handicap is stable at -5.5 Leinster, points has edged in to 47.5 from 48.5
Total Points Line and Forecast Weather
Posted 17 June 12h29
The handicap is stable at Leinster -5.5 and we now have a total points line
Leinster -5.5 v Bulls, Points 48.5
Weather: Temperature should be mid teens with rain likely
Bulls find betting support
Posted 15 June 07h02
The handicap opened Leinster -8.5 but has generally shifted o -7.5 and it is even -6.5 in places with some support for the Bulls.
Leinster -7.5 v Bulls
Betting is out
Posted 07 June 13h12
The bookies have priced up and are very much aligned with my projection (in brackets)
Leinster -8.5 (-8.5) v Bulls
Leinster Road to the Final
Leinster finished second on the regular season table behind the Glasgow Warriors.
Their quarterfinal saw them host the Lions in Dublin and they made very short work of the South Africans, cruising to a 59-10 victory in one of the most dominant performances of the playoffs.
The semifinal against the Stormers proved a far more physical and tactical contest. Leinster were backed from around -12.5 to -14.5 favourites and eventually came through 20-11 in a bruising encounter.
From a betting perspective, my original fancy was Stormers unders on points, a bet which would have arrived comfortably, but unfortunately at the last minute I switched to Leinster -14.5.
Vodacom Bulls Road to the Final
The Bulls finished fourth on the log and their quarterfinal saw them host Munster at Loftus.
They were always in control of that contest, eventually winning 45-14 after a dominant first-half performance.
The semifinal away to Glasgow proved a completely different challenge. The Bulls found themselves 21-3 down after just 24 minutes and looked to be in serious trouble.
But the Bulls produced a remarkable turnaround and, incredibly, did not concede another point in the match, eventually winning 22-21 to knock the defending champions out of the tournament.
From a betting perspective it was a very good game for me as I was on the Bulls at 1.38/1. Earlier in the week they had been available at around 16/10.
Grand Final Handicap Prediction
- Leinster -8.5 vs Vodacom Bulls
The above handicap is my early projection as to where the handicap will start and will be compared to the bookmakers’ lines once the markets are fully released, most likely later today or on Monday.
Early Thoughts
Leinster will start favourites at home and their physicality against the Stormers showed they are prepared to win ugly if necessary.
The Bulls, though, arrive full of confidence after one of the comebacks of the season against Glasgow and they have already shown throughout this campaign that they can compete with anyone when their pack gains ascendancy.