Round 3 of the Investec Champions Cup is pivotal, with qualification positions beginning to take shape across all four pools. In this blog we will focus on all things betting related including early handicaps, market moves, weather and bets in selected matches
No Sunday Joy!
Posted 12 Jan 11h02
There was no Sunday double joy for me with 1 leg arriving in each.
Overall the bookies finished slightly ahead
The Round 4 blog is up and running
A French Double to End the Weekend
Posted 11 Jan 14h42
The match of the weekend may well be Bordeaux v Northampton, where the visitors are sending a strong side but have been forced into a late change at flyhalf, with Anthony Belleau replacing Finn Smith. The handicap is Bordeaux -10.5, and the points line has climbed from 58.5 to 63.5 despite some rain in the forecast. It should be a highly entertaining contest, but I expect Bordeaux to have too much firepower at home.
The final game of the weekend sees Saracens host Toulouse, with the visitors trading as -10.5 favourites. Saracens are no longer the force they once were, and while Toulouse did slip up away to Glasgow earlier in the competition, I’m expecting a far more clinical performance this time around. The points line is set at 56.5 in what should be cold conditions, with a chance of rain.
I’m going to close out the weekend with a simple French handicap double.
Bet:
1 unit Double at 26/10 (WSB)
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Bordeaux -10.5 at 0.93/1
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Toulouse -10.5 at 10/11
I’ve also taken an overs play in the Cheetahs v Ulster Challenge Cup game, with details posted in the forum.
A Lazy Sunday Afternoon Double
Posted 11 Jan
If my Sunday afternoon goes according to plan, I will be watching the first half of Harlequins v Stormers from the gym treadmill (walking, not running I can assure you), while keeping a close eye on the Munster score as their match against Toulon kicks off at the same time.
Munster are +11.5 underdogs away to Toulon (points 52.5), and I like the look of the team they have selected. I think they can make a proper contest of this one and push Toulon closer than the handicap suggests.
In London, Harlequins are -7.5 favourites over the Stormers, with the points line set at 53.5. There is some rain about, and I am hoping the Stormers’ defence settles early. With conditions likely to blunt attacking fluency, the unders looks the better angle here.
This sets up a relaxed Sunday afternoon double and I will be back with a bet or perhaps 2 in the late matches.
Bet:
1 unit Double at 2.68/1 (BetXchange)
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Munster +11.5 at 0.93/1
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Under 53.5 points – Harlequins v Stormers at 9/10
Saturday Wrap – 110 Points at Loftus
Posted 11 Jan 07h36
Bristol were the standout play for me on Saturday, winning the game outright and landing the over 26.5 points in roughly the same number of minutes. There were plenty of overs backers at Loftus in our forum, and even at a hefty 63.5 points they had already banked their profits by half-time – crazy stuff.
Sale Sharks left it too late to get going, but when factoring in my Challenge Cup bet on Lyon points, I have managed to sneak my head in front of the bookies for the weekend.
There are four Champions Cup fixtures on the card today, and I will be back later this morning with bets in at least a couple of them. Below is the latest betting, with points lines shown in brackets.
RC Toulon -10.5 v Munster (52.5)
Harlequins -8.5 v Stormers (53.5)
Union Bordeaux-Bègles -11.5 v Northampton Saints (59.5)
Saracens +10.5 v Toulouse (56.5)
Sale to Run Amok
Posted 10 Jan 06h48
Bet:
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3 units: Sale Sharks over 5.5 tries at 10/11 (Sportingbet)
I have no issue with a bit of banter, and when Sharks CEO Marco Masotti jokingly referred to the Sale “Tuna,” it felt like a harmless way to build interest around the fixture. However, that narrative quickly lost its shine when the Sharks named what can only be described as a B-team, which raises questions about the point behind trying to hype the game in the first place.
The market has reacted accordingly, with Sale backed in from -16.5 to -19.5 on the handicap. The total points line sits at 53.5, and conditions are expected to be cold but clear.
This has the look of a one-way contest. I expect Sale to apply pressure early, keep their foot firmly on the throat, and run up a big score and I am backing them to cross for six tries or more.
Given my interest in the Lyon v Lions game I am not going to get involved in the Clermont v Glasgow match where the handicap is Clermont +8.5 and the points line is 52.5.
Bears to Push the Bulls
Posted 10 Jan 06h32
Bets:
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2 units (max 5): Bristol Bears over 26.5 points at 17/20 (Hollywoodbets)
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1 unit: Bristol Bears to win at 3.25/1 (WSB)
There has been steady support for the Bears in the market, with the handicap moving from +14.5 into +10.5, and they have named a side that clearly means business. The Bulls boast a powerful pack, but their backline depth looks thin, and with their Champions Cup campaign all but over, I have questions around motivation albeit they are probably just desperate for a win of any kind.
The total points line is set at 64.5. This was a fixture I initially earmarked for overs, although I would have preferred a slightly lower number. Even so, I still lean towards a higher-scoring contest, with Loftus having hosted several big totals already this season.
One concern is the state of the pitch after heavy rain during the week, but based on images I saw on X, it appears to be in good condition, on the surface at any rate.
Bristol points overs, along with a small moneyline play on the underdogs, is the approach for me here.
I have placed a bet in the Lions v Lyon Challenge Cup game - details in this forum post
Still Feeling My Way into 2026
Posted 10 Jan 06h04
I didn’t watch Friday night’s games, but in hindsight I was grateful that my interest was limited to a small unders double on Castres and Gloucester. Neither bet was ever a runner, and it’s fair to say I’m still feeling my way into 2026.
I am really battling to get a strong read on this season’s Champions Cup, so I’ll be treading carefully with my betting for the remainder of the weekend.
Here are the latest handicaps and points in brackets
Bulls -10.5 (63.5) v Bristol Bears
Clermont +8.5 (52.5) v Glasgow Warriors
Sale Sharks -19.5 (53.5) v Sharks
Leinster -11.5 (56.5) v La Rochelle
Leicester Tigers -33.5 (66.5) v Bayonne
Scarlets -9.5 (50.5) v Pau
Toulon -11.5 (52.5) v Munster
Harlequins -8.5 (52.5) v Stormers
Bordeaux-Bègles -11.5 v Northampton Saints
Saracens +10.5 (54.5) v Toulouse
Friday Night Unders Double
Posted 09 Jan 10h34
We have two Friday night fixtures to kick the weekend off, with Castres hosting Bath and Edinburgh welcoming Gloucester.
The Castres handicap has been relatively stable all week at +7.5, while Edinburgh have seen significant support, moving from -13.5 to -20.5 on the back of Gloucester naming a depleted squad.
The total points lines are set at 44.5 in Castres and 53.5 in Edinburgh, and conditions look far from ideal in both venues. Rain is expected, temperatures are forecast to be close to freezing, and there is also the possibility of strong winds in Castres, all of which should make expansive rugby difficult.
I struggled to find my feet in this competition during the opening two rounds, so for Friday night I’m keeping things simple and conditions-based. The angle is to oppose the underdogs scoring freely in what should be testing conditions.
BET: 1 unit* Double: 63/25 at Hollywoodbets
Castres Under 18.5 points at 9/10
Gloucester Under 16.5 points at 17/20
*1-5 units scale
Round 3 Weather Forecasts
Posted 09 Jan 10h00
An action packed weekend lies ahead and below are the current weather forecasts for the 12 matches - click on the fixture for updates and if you are placing a big bet try to get some local input as these forecasts can be well out
Castres Olympique v Bath Rugby - very cold at 3 degrees, windy, rain, humidity early 90's
Edinburgh v Gloucester - very cold at 3 degrees, rain, humidity early 90's
Vodacom Bulls v Bristol Bears - mid 20's, clear, mild wind, humidity in 30's
ASM Clermont Auvergne v Glasgow Warriors - cold at 5 degrees, some rain, humidity in 70's
Leinster Rugby v La Rochelle - cold at 4 degrees, overcast but dry, humidity early 80's
Sale Sharks v Hollywoodbets Sharks - freezing, cloudy but dry, humidity late 80's
Scarlets v Pau - 3 degrees, overcast but should be dry, humidity late 80's
Leicester Tigers v Bayonne - freezing, overcast but no rain expected, humidity early 90's
Harlequins v DHL Stormers - cold at 6 degrees, rain expected in the afternoon, windy, humidity late 80's
RC Toulon v Munster Rugby - cold at 7 degrees, overcast but dry, humidity around 60%
Union Bordeaux-Bègles v Northampton Saints- cold at 9 degrees, overcast but dry, humidity high 80's
Saracens v Toulouse - cold 7 degrees, rain likely, windy, humidity late 80's
Latest Caps and Betting Moves
Posted Jan 7 18h33
Champions Cup – Handicap Moves
Edinburgh -13.5 → -15.5 v Gloucester ⬆️ +2
Castres +8.5 → +7.5 v Bath ⬇️ -1
Bulls -14.5 → -15.5 v Bristol ⬆️ +1
Clermont +8.5 → +7.5 v Glasgow ⬇️ -1
Sale Sharks -16.5 → -16.5 v Sharks —
Leinster -21.5 → -16.5 v La Rochelle ⬇️ -5
Leicester -28.5 → -31.5 v Bayonne ⬆️ +3
Scarlets -8.5 → -7.5 v Pau ⬇️ -1
RC Toulon -10.5 → -10.5 v Munster —
Harlequins +0.5 → -0.5 v Stormers ⬇️ -1
Bordeaux -13.5 → -10.5 v Northampton ⬇️ -3
Saracens +10.5 → +10.5 v Toulouse —
La Rochelle, Leicester and Bordeaux the big movers
Early handicaps
Posted 05 Jan 16h39
Betxchange are out with handicaps and we will keep an eye on movements during the week
Edinburgh -13.5 v Gloucester
Castres +8.5 v Bath
Bulls -14.5 v Bristol Bears
Clermont +8.5 v Glasgow Warriors
Sale Sharks -16.5 v Hollywoodbets Sharks
Leinster -21.5 v La Rochelle
Leicester Tigers -28.5 v Bayonne
Scarlets -8.5 v Section Paloise
RC Toulon -10.5 v Munster
Harlequins +0.5 v Stormers
Union Bordeaux-Bègles -13.5 v Northampton Saints
Saracens +10.5 v Toulouse
Round 3 High Level Preview
Posted 05 Jan
Castres Olympique v Bath Rugby
Venue: Stade Pierre-Fabre
Kick-off: Friday 9 January, 22:00
Castres sit mid-table in Pool 2 after splitting their opening two fixtures, while Bath currently top the pool and remain well placed for a home Round of 16. Bath’s are priced at 28/5, compared to Castres at 259/1, underlining the gap in tournament expectations despite the difficulty of playing in southern France.
Castres team selection will be key and will signal their intent.
Edinburgh Rugby v Gloucester Rugby
Venue: Hive Stadium
Kick-off: Friday 9 January, 22:00
Both sides come into Round 3 on one win from two and are firmly in the congested middle of Pool 2. Neither side is strongly fancied in the outright market. Gloucester are available at 249/1, with Edinburgh even bigger at 259/1, suggesting this fixture is more about staying alive in the pool than any realistic title ambition.
Vodacom Bulls v Bristol Bears
Venue: Loftus Versfeld
Kick-off: Saturday 10 January, 15:00
The Bulls are under pressure after two heavy defeats and currently sit near the bottom of Pool 4. Bristol, by contrast, have started perfectly but that is not reflected in the outright prices, with Bristol trading at 83/1, while the Bulls are 35/1.
All eyes will be on the points line and the weather.
ASM Clermont Auvergne v Glasgow Warriors
Venue: Stade Marcel-Michelin
Kick-off: Saturday 10 January, 17:15
Clermont are already facing elimination after two losses and a significant negative points differential. Glasgow, meanwhile, have won both matches and lead Pool 1. Their strong position is backed up by outright odds of 19/1, while Clermont are deep outsiders at 749/1.
It would be a surprise if Clermont go all-in on this one.
Leinster Rugby v La Rochelle
Venue: Aviva Stadium
Kick-off: Saturday 10 January, 19:30
Leinster have won both matches and are one of the market leaders at 69/20, while La Rochelle are 37/2 after a win and a loss. After a slow start to the season Leinster look like they are finding their form and this should be a big handicap.
Sale Sharks v Hollywoodbets Sharks
Venue: CorpAcq Stadium
Kick-off: Saturday 10 January, 19:30
Both Sharks sides sit on one win and one loss in Pool 1 and remain firmly in the qualification mix. Sale are longer-term outsiders at 83/1, while the Durban-based Sharks are slightly shorter at 67/1.
Scarlets v Section Paloise
Venue: Parc y Scarlets
Kick-off: Saturday 10 January, 22:00
Both sides have lost their opening two fixtures and are effectively playing to avoid finishing bottom of Pool 4. The outright market reflects this reality, with Scarlets and Pau both priced at 999/1, highlighting that this fixture is more about possible Challenge Cup positioning than Champions Cup progression.
Leicester Tigers v Bayonne
Venue: Mattioli Woods Welford Road
Kick-off: Saturday 10 January, 22:00
Leicester and Bayonne are winless after two rounds in Pool 3 and face an uphill task to reach the knockouts. Leicester are listed at 474/1 in the outright market, with Bayonne at 999/1. Look out for a likely 2nd string Bayonne team
Harlequins v DHL Stormers
Venue: Twickenham Stoop
Kick-off: Sunday 11 January, 15:00
Harlequins and Stormers both remain firmly in contention in Pool 3. Stormers have been particularly impressive and sit near the top of the outright market at 25/2, while Harlequins are outsiders at 159/1 with a loss and a victory to date.
This should be a great watch and I will be looking at the points market.
RC Toulon v Munster Rugby
Venue: Stade Félix Mayol
Kick-off: Sunday 11 January, 15:00
Munster and Toulon are level on points in Pool 2, sitting 3rd and 4th. making this a critical fixture for qualification as all 6 teams are within a point of each other. Toulon are priced at 26/1 in the outright market, with Munster double the price at 52/1.
Union Bordeaux-Bègles v Northampton Saints
Venue: Stade Chaban-Delmas
Kick-off: Sunday 11 January, 17:15
This is a heavyweight clash between two unbeaten sides who met in last years final. Bordeaux are priced at 17/5, while Northampton sit just behind them at 23/2. With home ground advantage so important in the playoffs, this match could shape the knockout bracket significantly.
Saracens v Toulouse
Venue: StoneX Stadium
Kick-off: Sunday 11 January, 19:30
One of the standout fixtures of Round 3 sees Saracens host tournament favourites Toulouse. Toulouse top the outright market at 53/20, while Saracens who lost to the Sharks in Durban are further back at 23/1. A win here would strengthen Toulouse’s grip on Pool 1, while Saracens will be desperate to protect their qualification hopes.
This should be a cracker.
I will be back with a look at the early handicaps when they are out.