Round 4 of the Investec Champions Cup takes centre stage this weekend as the pool phase reaches the decisive point. After a high-scoring and often chaotic Round 3, qualification positions are starting to take shape, but very little is settled across the four pools.
Leaning Munster and Toulouse minus
Posted Jan 17 15h55
Those who get the newsletter know it is my sons 21st tonight so I am not getting further involved but I am leaning Munster and Toulouse on the minus.
I will be back in the morning
Stormers v Leicester, betting on a narrow home win
Posted 16 Jan 23h09
BET: 1 unit (1–5)
Selection: Stormers to win by 1–12 points
Odds: 21/10 at Sportingbet
There are two matches kicking off at 17:15. Bayonne host Leinster in the one fixture, where the visitors are now -16.5 after opening at -23.5. The points line there is 57.5, but I’ll be focused on the Stormers game and won’t be getting involved in Bayonne v Leinster.
The Stormers are currently -17.5 here, having touched -21.5 earlier in the week before easing back. I’m not overly familiar with this Leicester side, but they don’t appear to have completely downed tools, and I don’t expect them to roll over.
The Stormers should have enough to get the job done at home, but I think this ends up being closer than the handicap suggests. On that basis, I’m siding with the Stormers to win by 1–12 points at just over 2/1.
Sharks v Clermont - hoping for a muggy Durban
Posted 16 Jan 22h37
BET: 2 units (1–5)
Selection: Clermont under 16.5 points
Odds: 19/20 at PokerBet
There has been notable line movement in this match, with the Sharks opening at -26.5, pushing out to -28.5, before settling back at -24.5 following the release of team news.
While the Sharks could still qualify in theory, they are more realistically heading toward Challenge Cup rugby, while Clermont will be able to shift their full focus back to the Top 14 once this fixture is out of the way. The points line sits at 57.5, and at this time of year I generally lean towards unders in Durban conditions.
My preference here is Clermont under 16.5 points. If the Sharks control territory and tempo, as they should, I expect them to limit Clermont’s scoring opportunities.
Can the Bulls Bounce Back?
Posted 15 Jan 23h05
We have two Friday-night fixtures on the card, and both have seen significant betting movement during the week.
Bath have been heavily backed at home against Edinburgh, with the handicap moving from -19.5 out to -28.5 after the visitors named a less-than-full-strength side. This is effectively a top-of-the-table clash, with the winner set to finish the pool phase on top. The points line sits at 58.5, and I expect Bath to come out firing early. With that in mind, I am backing them to establish control quickly.
BET: 2 units (1–5)
Selection: Bath -12.5 halftime handicap
Odds: 8/10 at Sportingbet
The match I will be watching most closely is Pau v the Bulls. The Bulls can still qualify for the knockout stages with a win, or at the very least drop into the Challenge Cup, while Pau can do no better than fourth and are already locked into an away round-of-16 fixture if they win. Pau boast a strong home record, but they face a desperate Bulls side that were hammered at home by Bristol last week in a performance that raised serious questions about their defensive setup.
The handicap has bounced around all week from +17.5 Bulls to +10.5 and now back to +13.5 (those are just what I have seen)
The points line for this clash is 57.5, which looks about right. This is very much a “follow at your peril” play, but I have a feeling that a wounded Bulls side will lift for this occasion and want it more. On that note I am off to bed.
BET: 1 unit (1–5)
Selection: Bulls to win
Odds: 4/1 at BetXchange
Weather Forecasts
Posted 15 Jan 21h48
Below are the weather forecasts across the 12 matches. Make sure to check updates and if possible get reliable local information before steaming in. Click on the fixture for updates at Time and Date.com.
Section Paloise v Bulls - cold at around 7 degrees, overcast but no rain forecast, humidity early 80's
Bath Rugby v Edinburgh Rugby - cold at 6 degrees, some cloud, humidity early 90's
Sharks v Clermont Auvergne - warm at 25 degrees, passing showers, humidity early 70's
Bayonne v Leinster - 9 degrees, overcast with showers, humidity late 80's
Stormers v Leicester Tigers - clear and 20 degrees, humidity early 70's
Munster v Castres Olympique - cold at 5 degrees but clear, humidity around 90%
Stade Toulousain v Sale Sharks - 11 degrees, overcast but dry, humidity early 80's
Gloucester Rugby v RC Toulonnais - 7 degrees, cloudy, possible rain, humidity 90%
Bristol Bears v Union Bordeaux Bègles - 7 degrees, overcast but dry, humidity early to mid 90's
Stade Rochelais v Harlequins - 4 degrees, some cloud, humidity late 80's
Northampton Saints v Scarlets - 6 degrees, overcast with possible showers, humidity mid 90's
Glasgow Warriors v Saracens - 4 degrees, overcast with likely showers, humidity early 90's
Latest Handicaps
Posted 15 Jan 21h15
Section Paloise -14.5 v Bulls (Points 57.5)
Bath -28.5 v Edinburgh
Sharks -27.5 v Clermont
Bayonne +14.5 v Leinster
Stormers -18.5 v Leicester
Munster -21.5 v Castres
Toulouse -34.5 v Sale
Gloucester +9.5 v Toulon
Bristol +6.5 v Bordeaux
La Rochelle -22.5 v Harlequins
Northampton -33.5 v Scarlets
Glasgow -7.5 v Saracens
Significant Line Moves since last update
Pau moved from -10.5 to -14.5 (4-point move)
Bath moved from -19.5 to -28.5 (9-point move)
Bayonne moved from +17.5 to +14.5 (3-point move)
Stormers moved from -21.5 to -18.5 (3-point move)
Munster moved from -23.5 to -21.5 (2-point move)
Weather forecasts will be up later tonight
Betting Update & Market Moves
Posted 14 Jan 22h22
Pau -15.5 (-10.5) v Bulls - support for Bulls on the back of a strong touring squad
Bath -19.5 (-19.5) v Edinburgh
Sharks -26.5 (-28.5) v Clermont
Bayonne +23.5 (+17.5) v Leinster - support for Bayonne, Leinster likely to rest players
Stormers -20.5 (-21.5) v Leicester
Munster -22.5 (-23.5) v Castres
Toulouse -34.5 (-34.5) v Sale
Gloucester +7.5 (+9.5) v Toulon
Bristol +8.5 (+5.5) v Bordeaux - support for Bristol
La Rochelle -23.5 (-22.5) v Harlequins
Northampton -34.5 (-33.5) v Scarlets
Glasgow -7.5 (-7.5) v Saracens
Early Handicaps
Posted 12 Jan 22h17
Pau -15.5 v Bulls
Bath -19.5 v Edinburgh
Sharks -26.5 v Clermont
Bayonne +23.5 v Leinster
Stormers -20.5 v Leicester
Munster -22.5 v Castres
Toulouse -34.5 v Sale
Gloucester +9.5 v Toulon
Bristol +8.5 v Bordeaux
La Rochelle -23.5 v Harlequins
Northampton -34.5 v Scarlets
Glasgow -7.5 v Saracens
Round 4 – Setting the Scene
Posted 12 Jan 10h30
Several heavyweights are under pressure, while a handful of sides have laid down clear markers as genuine title contenders.
Before turning our attention to the Round 4 fixtures, it is worth briefly reflecting on Round 3, which delivered statement wins for Bath in Castres, Bristol at Loftus, Glasgow away to Clermont, Saracens at home to pre-tournament favourites Toulouse and Bordeaux at home to Northampton.
At the same time, South African sides endured a difficult weekend, with the Bulls, Sharks and Stormers all suffering heavy defeats on the road. Those results have had a clear impact on both pool standings and the outright markets.
Betting wise I never got that involved with excellent profits on Bristol outright and points more than offset by structuring a couple of doubles wrong on Sunday.
Champions Cup Round 4 Fixtures
Fri 16 Jan 2026, 22:00 – Pau v Bulls - Bulls rock bottom of Pool and would probably be doing anything else but play this fixture
Fri 16 Jan 2026, 22:00 – Bath v Edinburgh - a bonus point win for either and they top the table
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 15:00 – Sharks v Clermont - Sharks can still qualify but will likely need Glasgow to beat Saracens. Clermont may send a D team
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 17:15 – Bayonne v Leinster - Bayonne have no points, Leinster top and likely to finish there win or lose
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 17:15 – Stormers v Leicester -Stormers 3rd can likely finish runners up with a win
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 19:30 – Toulouse v Sale - Toulouse need to win and hope Sarries lose to finish Top 2
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 19:30 – Munster v Castres - till a tight group, not impossible for Munster to finish top 2 but need Gloucester to beat Toulon
Sat 17 Jan 2026, 22:00 – Gloucester v Toulon - Toulon can finish top 2 or as low as 5th
Sun 18 Jan 2026, 15:00 – Bristol v Bordeaux - Winner tops the table, loser likely 3rd
Sun 18 Jan 2026, 17:15 – Northampton v Scarlets - Saints have a chance of finishing 2nd, Scarlets could qualify if Bulls beat Pau
Sun 18 Jan 2026, 17:15 – Stade Rochelais v Harlequins - 4th hosts 2nd and 5 points between them - should be a cracker
Sun 18 Jan 2026, 19:30 – Glasgow v Saracens - Glasgow probably need a point to qualify top, Saracens likely 2nd with a win
Latest Outright Betting – Champions Cup Winner
The outright market continues to be dominated by the established European powers, with consistency across the pool stages heavily favoured by bookmakers.
Leinster – 53/20
Stade Toulousain – 57/20
Union Bordeaux Bègles – 57/20
Bath remain the leading English contender after their strong start and are next best in the market:
Bath Rugby – 24/5
A second tier of contenders includes sides who are well positioned but still have work to do in the remaining pool fixtures:
Glasgow Warriors – 27/2
Stormers – 27/2
Northampton Saints – 15/1
Saracens – 31/2
RC Toulon – 17/1
The South African teams have drifted following Round 3, but the Stormers remain in the outright conversation:
Stormers – 27/2
Bulls – 499/1
Sharks – 229/1
Further back in the market are teams who realistically need a flawless Round 4 and favourable results elsewhere to stay alive, or who are simply expected to battle in the knockouts:
Bristol Bears – 38/1
Stade Rochelais – 47/1
Munster – 63/1
Sale Sharks – 31/1
At this stage, the betting reflects a competition increasingly shaped around Leinster, Toulouse and Bordeaux, with Bath and Glasgow emerging as serious challengers.
Round 4 promises to be pivotal, with pressure mounting across all four pools and little margin for error from here on in and we will keep an eye on all things betting related during the week.
