The fourth round of the Nations Championship is complete, and we've got some fascinating battles developing at the top of both hemispheres as we head into the final two rounds.

Bet: England v Japan

Posted 14 November 07h14

Bet: 2.5 units (1–5), Over 9.5 tries at 0.87/1 at Sportingbet

England remain favourites by 31.5 to 32.5 points, depending on where you're betting, but it's the points and tries markets that catch my eye here.

The total points line is set at 68.5, and I reckon it could be seriously threatened. I'm expecting Japan to play an open brand of rugby, while England will be keen to pile on the points and keep the pressure on Ireland, who sit just below them on the Northern Hemisphere log.

I don't expect penalties to feature in this match, and with both sides likely to look for tries rather than kick at goal, I'm anticipating a high-scoring encounter.

Rather than take over 68.5 match points, I'm going with over 9.5 tries, which takes the conversions out of the equation. Ten tries would give us a winning bet regardless of how many conversions are successful and if I am correct on penalties then you would need all 10 to be converted to land the points.

 

Nations Championship Outright Betting – France and New Zealand Head the Market

Posted 14 November 06h53

France's dramatic 21–19 victory over South Africa in Paris has shaken up the Nations Championship outright betting market, with the French now favourites to lift the trophy.

The Springboks were trading at 19/20 earlier in the week, but their first defeat of the competition has seen them drift all the way out to 4/1.

Latest Outright Betting @ PokerBet

France – 5/4

New Zealand – 6/4

South Africa – 4/1

England – 14/1

Ireland – 28/1

Scotland – 500/1

The Betting Picture

France have strengthened their position at the top of the Northern Hemisphere standings and will be confident of finishing the competition strongly, with Argentina their final opponent.

South Africa still lead the Southern Hemisphere standings, but their defeat has opened the door for New Zealand, who face Wales in Cardiff today.

The All Blacks are now just 6/4 to win the tournament, having been available at 7/2 earlier in the week and frankly if I wasn't already invested (at 3/1) I would bite your hand off for the 6/4.

 

Bet: Italy v Argentina

Posted 14 November 01h00

Bet: 2 units (1–5), Over 54.5 points at 17/20 at PokerBet

We got the weekend off to a winning start with under 59.5 points arriving comfortably in France v South Africa, and I'm looking to build on that momentum.

There's been plenty of handicap movement in this match, with Argentina opening at -10.5 before moving out to -14.5, only for the line to return to Italy +10.5 following the team announcements.

Both sides were incredibly poor last weekend, with Italy thrashed by South Africa and Argentina comprehensively beaten by Ireland.

While I'm leaning towards Argentina on the handicap, I'm going to stick with the points market here.

The weather looks reasonable, and with neither side in contention to win the Nations Championship, I'm hoping we'll see a relatively free-flowing game with plenty of points.

I'm taking over 54.5 points at 17/20.

 

Nations Championship Round 5 – Latest Betting and Weather Update

Posted 13 November 19h56

With France and South Africa kicking off Round 5 tonight, we've seen some significant movement in both the handicap and points markets over the last 24 hours.

Several of these moves are encouraging for bets we've already placed, although there are a couple of weather developments worth monitoring.

Latest Handicaps and Points Lines

Previous lines from 12 November in brackets. Moves of two points or more highlighted in bold.

Friday 13 November

France +7.5 (+8.5) v South Africa – Points 58.5 (59.5)

Saturday 14 November

Italy +11.5 (+14.5) v Argentina – Points 55.5 (59.5)

Wales +33.5 (+31.5) v New Zealand – Points 70.5 (68.5)

England -32.5 (-31.5) v Japan – Points 68.5 (68.5)

Ireland -29.5 (-26.5) v Fiji – Points 64.5 (64.5)

Sunday 15 November

Scotland -7.5 (-7.5) v Australia – Points 56.5 (62.5)

Market Movers and Our Bets

France v South Africa: The handicap has eased a point in France's favour, while the total points line has dropped from 59.5 to 58.5. That's encouraging for our 2.5-unit bet on under 59.5 points, although we still need the game to stay below 60.

Italy v Argentina: One of the biggest reversals of the week. Italy have shortened from +14.5 to +11.5, while the points line has dropped four points to 55.5. No bet for us here.

Wales v New Zealand: The handicap has moved out to -33.5, while the match points line has climbed to 70.5. Both moves support our expectation of a big All Blacks score. We have 3 units on New Zealand over 46.5 team points at 8/10 and the line is now out to 51.5.

England v Japan: England have moved out another point to -32.5, with the match total unchanged at 68.5. We have England over 49.5 team points in our newsletter accumulator.

Ireland v Fiji: Ireland have attracted further support, with their match handicap moving from -26.5 to -29.5. That's encouraging for our 2.5-unit bet on Ireland -12.5 in the first half, although that line is still available at WSB.

Scotland v Australia: The handicap remains -7.5, but the points line has plunged six points from 62.5 to 56.5. We have Australia +8.5 in our accumulator, so we've secured a point better than the current handicap.

Latest Weather

• France v South Africa: Paris, around 4–6°C, cold and dry. Forecast

• Italy v Argentina: Genoa, around 12–14°C, increasing cloud but largely dry. Forecast

• Wales v New Zealand: Cardiff, around 9–10°C outside. Roof expected to be closed, providing ideal conditions. Forecast

• England v Japan: London, cool conditions, with no major weather concern identified in the earlier outlook. Forecast

• Ireland v Fiji: Dublin, around 8–10°C, with rain now possible during the evening. Forecast

• Scotland v Australia: Edinburgh, cold, with wind and rain now forecast for Sunday. Forecast

The deteriorating weather outlook for Edinburgh explains the sharp drop in the Scotland v Australia points line, while the possibility of rain in Dublin is worth watching.

 

Bet: Wales v New Zealand

Posted 13 November 09h23

Bet: 3 units (1–5), New Zealand over 46.5 team points at 8/10 at World Sports Betting

The handicap for this match has moved out to New Zealand -33.5 in places, although -31.5 is still available.

The game will be played under the roof at the Principality Stadium, so conditions should be perfect for attacking rugby. I really fancy New Zealand to put their foot on the gas at some stage and run away with this one and I would not discount them chasing points difference at some stage.

Rather than take the handicap, I'm going to grab the All Blacks over 46.5 team points at 8/10.

I've noticed that this line is already moving higher, so you'll need to get on quickly if you want the quoted price. That being said, I would still be happy to take anything under 50 points.

The total points line is 68.5 

Bet: Ireland v Fiji

Posted 12 November 23h05

Bet: 2.5 units (1–5), Ireland -12.5 first-half handicap at 10/11 at World Sports Betting

Ireland have resisted the temptation to rotate their team and are clearly looking to put a big score on Fiji.

I fancy the Irish to come out of the blocks quickly, and I agree with Victor, a first-time guest on last night's edition of The Handicap, that Ireland on the first-half handicap is the way to go.

The total match points line is set at 64.5, but if I were going to have a bet in that market, I would rather look at Ireland's team points over 45.5.

 

Bet: France v South Africa

Posted 12 November 07h37

Bet: 2.5 units (1–5), Under 59.5 points at 10/11 at World Sports Betting

The handicap in this game is hovering around France +7.5 to +8.5, with the Springboks having attracted plenty of betting support.

I'm really interested to see how Dupont goes at flyhalf, and although I give the Bok bench a clear edge, I certainly wouldn't write this French side off just yet.

We've seen some very high-scoring matches in this tournament, but the 59.5-point line would not have been breached in any of the last five meetings between these sides.

I expect the match to be played at a hectic pace, but the current forecast suggests temperatures of around 4°C and humidity approaching 90%. I'm hoping those conditions will be just enough to help the unders get home.

 

Outright Betting and Latest Market Moves

Posted 12 November 06h49

South Africa remain favourites to win the inaugural Nations Championship, with France and New Zealand their closest challengers in the outright betting.

The Springboks face France in Paris on Friday night in what could be a dress rehearsal for the final, while New Zealand will be looking for a convincing victory over Wales to improve their points difference.

Latest Outright Betting

Prices converted from decimal to fractional odds.

South Africa – 19/20

France – 3/1

New Zealand – 7/2

England – 9/1

Ireland – 16/1

Scotland – 100/1

Wales – 200/1

Click here to bet on outright markets

South Africa and New Zealand both have maximum points in the Southern Hemisphere standings, although the Springboks have a substantial advantage on points difference.

France lead the Northern Hemisphere standings, but England and Ireland remain firmly in contention. The result in Paris on Friday will have a major bearing on the outright market.

At current prices I think Ireland could be the value at 16/1. They need a few things to go their way, the toughest of which will be to beat South Africa in their final game. 

Latest Handicaps and Points Lines

Previous lines from 11 November in brackets. Significant handicap moves highlighted in bold.

Friday 13 November

France +8.5 (+6.5) v South Africa – Points 59.5 (58.5)

Saturday 14 November

Italy +14.5 (+13.5) v Argentina – Points 59.5 (58.5)

Wales +31.5 (31.5) v New Zealand – Points 68.5 (67.5)

England -31.5 (-31.5) v Japan – Points 68.5 (66.5)

Ireland -26.5 (-26.5) v Fiji – Points 64.5 (63.5)

Sunday 15 November

Scotland -7.5 (-7.5) v Australia – Points 62.5 (61.5)

Betting Market Movers

South Africa have attracted further support, with France's start increasing from +6.5 to +8.5. This is the biggest handicap move over the last 24 hours and represents a significant shift from the +5.5 available earlier in the week.

Argentina have also been supported, with Italy's start increasing another point to +14.5, while the other four handicaps remain unchanged.

All six points lines have increased, with England v Japan seeing the biggest move, up two points from 66.5 to 68.5. The remaining five matches have all increased by one point.

With team selections becoming clearer, there may be further movement before the weekend.

Join the discussion in our Round 5 forum thread.

 

Nations Championship Round 5 – Latest Handicaps, Points Lines and Weather

Posted 11 November 07h08

With Round 5 of the Nations Championship kicking off on Friday, we've seen some movement in the betting markets, particularly in the Italy v Argentina and Scotland v Australia matches.

The weather outlook remains favourable, with predominantly dry conditions expected across all six venues.

Latest Handicaps and Points Lines

Previous handicaps in brackets. Moves of two points or more since the last update highlighted in bold. Match points totals shown after each fixture.

Friday 13 November

France +6.5 (+7.5) v South Africa – Points 58.5

Saturday 14 November

Italy +13.5 (+11.5) v Argentina – Points 58.5

Wales +31.5 (31.5) v New Zealand – Points 67.5

England -31.5 (-30.5) v Japan – Points 66.5

Ireland -26.5 (-25.5) v Fiji – Points 63.5

Sunday 15 November

Scotland -7.5 (-5.5) v Australia – Points 61.5

Betting Market Movers

Argentina have attracted support, with Italy's start increasing from +11.5 to +13.5, now a point higher than my original projection.

Scotland have also been backed, moving from -5.5 to -7.5 against Australia, three points higher than my original assessment.

South Africa's handicap has eased from -7.5 to -6.5 against France, while England and Ireland have both moved out another point as favourites.

Weather Update

Conditions are looking good across the board, with little rain or significant wind expected.

• France v South Africa: Paris, around 6°C, dry. Forecast

• Italy v Argentina: Genoa, 10–12°C, dry. Forecast

• Wales v New Zealand: Cardiff, roof assumed closed. Forecast

• England v Japan: London, around 9°C, dry. Forecast

• Ireland v Fiji: Dublin, around 8°C, cloudy but dry. Forecast

• Scotland v Australia: Edinburgh, around 3°C, cold but dry. Forecast

Team announcements and any further handicap movement will be worth monitoring as we approach the weekend.

 

Nations Championship Round 5 – Early Weather Forecast

Posted 09 November 12h35

We're still a few days away from Round 5 of the Nations Championship, but I've had an early look at the weather forecasts for all six matches.

At this stage, conditions look reasonably favourable across Europe, with generally dry weather expected. Temperatures will be on the chilly side, particularly for the evening matches, but there are no major weather concerns showing up in the early forecasts.

Here's how things are looking, with all kickoff times in South African time.

Friday 13 November

France v South Africa – Paris, 22:10

The early forecast for the Stade de France looks promising, with clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures around 5–7°C at kickoff. Very little chance of rain and light winds are expected.

Conditions could be excellent for rugby despite the cold, with neither handling nor kicking likely to be significantly affected by the weather.

Hourly weather forecast – Paris

Saturday 14 November

Italy v Argentina – Genoa, 13:40

A cool and mostly cloudy afternoon is expected, with temperatures around 11°C. The early forecast suggests dry conditions and light winds, which should suit both sides.

Hourly weather forecast – Genoa

Wales v New Zealand – Cardiff, 16:10

We're working on the assumption that the Principality Stadium roof will be closed for this match, so outside weather conditions shouldn't be a factor.

With dry conditions guaranteed under the roof and no wind to contend with, the conditions should be ideal for running rugby. This could suit New Zealand's attacking game, particularly as they look to improve their points difference in the race with South Africa for top spot in the Southern Hemisphere standings.

England v Japan – London, 18:40

The early forecast for Twickenham suggests cool, dry conditions, with temperatures around 8–9°C. Winds are expected to be light, and there is little indication of rain during the match.

Hourly weather forecast – London

Ireland v Fiji – Dublin, 22:10

A chilly evening is expected in Dublin, with temperatures potentially falling towards 3–8°C. The early forecast is largely dry, with light winds.

The cold could be a factor for Fiji, but at this stage there is no indication that rain or wind will significantly affect the game.

Hourly weather forecast – Dublin

Sunday 15 November

Scotland v Australia – Edinburgh, 17:10

This looks likely to be the coldest fixture of the weekend, with temperatures around 5°C at Murrayfield.

Cloudy but largely dry conditions are forecast, with light winds. It could be uncomfortable for the players, although the weather doesn't currently look likely to have a major influence on the match.

Hourly weather forecast – Edinburgh

Early Betting Weather Assessment

With the roof assumed to be closed in Cardiff and largely dry conditions forecast elsewhere, there are no obvious weather-related reasons to favour unders at this stage. I do expect the bookies to adjust their points lines though.

I'll revisit the forecasts later in the week, particularly once we have a clearer picture of the wind conditions.

Disclaimer: These are early weather forecasts as at 9 November and are subject to change. The closed-roof arrangement in Cardiff is assumed rather than confirmed. Punters should check the latest conditions closer to kickoff before placing their bets.

 

Nations Championship Round 5 – Opening Handicaps vs My Projections

Posted 09 November 11h39

The bookmakers have started putting up their handicap lines for Round 5 of the Nations Championship, and there are a few interesting differences compared with the projections I posted yesterday.

Below are the opening lines, with my original projections shown in brackets. I've highlighted the matches where there's a difference of two points or more.

France +6.5 (+3.5) v South Africa - update 12h33, Boks now -7.5 in places 

Italy +10.5 (+12.5) v Argentina

Wales +31.5 (+27.5) v New Zealand

England -30.5 (-28.5) v Japan

Ireland -25.5 (-22.5) v Fiji

Scotland -5.5 (-4.5) v Australia

Early Thoughts

There are a number of differences between my handicaps and those of the bookmakers, and I note that France have already moved from +5.5 to +6.5 against South Africa. The French have been hard hit by injuries, so the money for the Springboks is understandable.

I handicapped Wales v New Zealand at +27.5 and was hoping the bookmakers would come out somewhere around that mark. I do think the All Blacks will be looking to rack up the points difference in this one, and I certainly won't be taking Wales with a 31.5-point start.

Ireland v Fiji has a three-point difference between my projection and the bookmakers' line, but that's not enough to tempt me into getting involved.

I'll be keeping an eye on the markets as the week progresses.

 

Nations Championship Round 5 – Early Handicap Projections

Posted 08 Nov 21h19

Here are my handicap projections for all six matches. These are  where I expect the betting line to settle and I will compare with the bookmakers when they price up 

France +3.5 v South Africa

Italy +12.5 v Argentina

Wales +27.5 v New Zealand

England -28.5 v Japan

Ireland -22.5 v Fiji

Scotland -4.5 v Australia

I'll be keeping an eye on the opening lines and will post any early betting opportunities as they become available.

The rugby betting thread for the new week is open in our forum 

 

South Africa and New Zealand both recorded convincing victories to maintain their perfect records in the Southern Hemisphere, while France remain top of the Northern Hemisphere standings after an emphatic win over Fiji.

From a betting perspective, it was a mixed weekend for me. New Zealand delivered two excellent results, but Argentina and Australia both let me down. Overall, I finished pretty much even for the weekend.

Round 4 Review

Ireland 42–12 Argentina

My weekend got off to a bad start, as I was on Argentina +9.5 points.

There had been plenty of money for the Pumas during the week, with their handicap shortening from +12.5 to +9.5, but the bookmakers certainly got the better of punters on this one.

Argentina made a promising start and looked competitive for the opening ten minutes, but from there they were absolutely blown away by Ireland.

The Irish were far too strong and ran out comfortable 42–12 winners, leaving me with a losing bet to start the weekend.

Italy 7–66 South Africa

The Springboks were heavily backed during the week, with their handicap moving from an early -21.5 to -28.5 by kickoff, and they duly delivered for punters.

South Africa were completely dominant, running in ten tries and restricting Italy to just seven points.

I didn't get involved in the handicap market, as I felt the line had reached about the right level. My only interest was a small speculative play on Grant Williams to score the final South African try at 10/1, but unfortunately that didn't materialise.

A hugely impressive performance from the Boks, who also gave their points difference a massive boost.

Scotland 21–43 New Zealand

This was comfortably my best game of the weekend from a betting perspective.

I managed to get on New Zealand early at -8.5 points and also backed them to score over 33.5 team points. Both bets arrived, putting me ahead for the weekend.

It was also a cracking game to watch, and the final scoreline doesn't really reflect just how close Scotland came to upsetting the All Blacks.

The Scots gave New Zealand a tremendous contest, but the All Blacks eventually pulled clear to win by 22 points.

New Zealand remain unbeaten in the competition, and I'm still very happy with my outright position on them at 3/1 although I suspect there will be a bigger price available now.

Wales 28–21 Japan

I didn't get to watch this match, but I had Japan with a 15.5-point start, which arrived comfortably.

There had been plenty of money for Wales during the week, with their handicap moving from -10.5 to as high as -15.5 before easing slightly.

Japan stayed competitive and eventually went down by just seven points.

I'll need to catch up on the highlights to get a better feel for this Welsh side ahead of their meeting with New Zealand next weekend.

France 54–17 Fiji

France were giving Fiji a 24.5-point start, and although I didn't have a particularly strong fancy in the match, I decided to get involved with Fiji on the plus.

That proved to be a mistake.

I wasn't able to watch the game, but the scoreline tells its own story, with France running out emphatic 54–17 winners.

The French remain in pole position in the Northern Hemisphere standings, and their clash with South Africa next weekend is shaping up to be one of the matches of the tournament.

England 45–22 Australia

This was the big disappointment of the weekend for me.

I had Australia +8.5 points as a straight bet, but also had a number of doubles and trebles riding on the Wallabies staying within the handicap.

Unfortunately, Australia were never really in the contest. England dominated the first half and were able to hold the Wallabies off comfortably in the second, eventually winning 45–22.

I had been keen on Australia since discussing the match with The Mossman on Thursday night's Rugby Betting Show, but we got this one badly wrong.

That result wiped out much of the profit from Saturday, leaving me pretty much square for the weekend.

Nations Championship Standings After Round 4

Northern Hemisphere

France remain top of the Northern Hemisphere standings on 17 points following their convincing victory over Fiji. They have won three of their four matches and hold a two-point advantage over England and Ireland, who are both on 15 points.

England occupy second place thanks to their superior points difference of +71, compared with Ireland's +29. France have a points difference of +78, so there is very little separating the top two in that department.

Scotland are fourth on 11 points, having won two of their four matches, while Wales are just a point further back on 10 following their victory over Japan.

Italy remain rooted to the bottom of the standings, having lost all four matches without picking up a single competition point.

The battle for top spot remains wide open, particularly with France facing South Africa next weekend and England still to play New Zealand in the final round.

Southern Hemisphere

South Africa and New Zealand remain locked together at the top of the Southern Hemisphere standings, both having won all four matches with bonus points to collect the maximum 20 points.

The Springboks hold a significant advantage on points difference, sitting at +140 compared with New Zealand's +73. Their 66–7 demolition of Italy added another 59 points to that advantage, while the All Blacks improved their difference by 22 points with their victory over Scotland.

However, the remaining fixtures could still work in New Zealand's favour. South Africa face France and Ireland in successive weeks, while the All Blacks take on Wales and England.

I've already backed New Zealand at 3/1 to win the tournament, and I still believe they represent decent if no longer excellent value.

Australia are a distant third on eight points, followed by Argentina on seven and Japan on five. Fiji remain bottom of the table without a point.

Looking Ahead to Round 5

The standout fixture next weekend is undoubtedly France against South Africa in Paris on Friday night.

France lead the Northern Hemisphere standings, while the Springboks are unbeaten and sitting top of the Southern Hemisphere table. It's a massive game for both teams and could have a significant impact on who reaches the final.

New Zealand travel to Cardiff to face Wales, and they'll be looking for another bonus-point victory as they attempt to close the points-difference gap on South Africa.

England host Japan at Twickenham, while Ireland will fancy their chances against Fiji in Dublin.

Scotland take on Australia in Edinburgh, and Italy host Argentina in Genoa.

With just two rounds remaining before the finals, bonus points and points difference could become increasingly important.

Nations Championship Round 5 Fixtures

Friday 13 November

France v South Africa – Paris

Saturday 14 November

Italy v Argentina – Genoa

Wales v New Zealand – Cardiff

England v Japan – London

Ireland v Fiji – Dublin

Sunday 15 November

Scotland v Australia – Edinburgh

I'll be back with the opening handicap lines and betting thoughts during the week as we look to get ahead of the bookmakers for Round 5.