The regular season is over and six teams remain in the hunt for the Super Rugby Pacific title. The qualifying playoffs are upon us and in this blog we keep an eye on all things betting-related, starting with my handicap projections.
Bet: Chiefs v Reds
Posted 06 June 01h41
2 units (1-5) under 8.5 tries at 8/10 at Pokerbet
I didn’t get the opportunity to watch the Hurricanes match live and my first chance to check the score only came a few hours later. Needless to say, when I saw that the Hurricanes had absolutely hammered the Reds, I was fairly pleased that business meetings had prevented me from sitting through my tries bet going down in flames.
As far as the early game on Saturday is concerned, I’m happy to sit on my existing Crusaders -6.5 position, although even at the current -9.5 I would probably still be interested in the home side. I can see a scenario where they get clear and the Blues start thinking of next weeks likely trip to Wellington.
The points line in that match is 57.5 and, if pushed, I would lean towards the unders there as well.
My final play of the weekend though comes in Chiefs v Reds, where I’m hoping the Reds can remain competitive enough to keep the Chiefs relatively honest throughout the contest.
Rather than get involved with the handicap or total points line, I’m going to focus on the tries market and back this game to produce under 8.5 tries.
Bet: Hurricanes v Brumbies
Posted 04 June 22h52
2 units (1-5) under 7.5 tries at 1.07/1 at Pokerbet
The handicap opened Hurricanes -17.5, which was very close to where I made the game at Hurricanes -18.5.
It now appears to have stabilised around Hurricanes -16.5 and the total points line is sitting at 54.5.
At the time of writing, conditions look as though they could be fairly poor, with strong winds, high humidity and some rain all forecast.
If pushed on the handicap, I would lean towards the Hurricanes as I do think they deserve their status as favourites for the title, currently trading around 25/20 outright.
For me though, the better value sits in the scoring markets and, more specifically, the total tries line.
Being a final, I can see both sides opting to take penalty shots at goal when opportunities present themselves, although admittedly that theory could quickly disappear if the wind becomes too difficult.
Ultimately though, I like the under 7.5 tries line at just over even money.
Looking back at the qualifying finals last year, two of the three matches would have comfortably landed the unders and I’ve got a strong feeling this weekend’s games could turn into a lower-scoring affair than the bookmakers are expecting.
Betting Update Thursday Morning
Posted 04 June 08h42
Here is the latest betting including points lines
Hurricanes -16.5 v Brumbies, Points 54.5 - some money now for thr Brumbies, in from +18.5
Crusaders -8.5 v Blues, Points 57.5 - as predicted the Crusaders line keeps edging out, it may have another point in it
Chiefs -14.5 v Reds, Points 57.5 - after money for the Chiefs the line has changed direction and Reds now +14.5 from +17.5
The teams are up and you can click here for teams news
Money for Chiefs and Crusaders
Posted 02 June 08h23
There has been money for the 3 home teams with current lines to the left and opening lines in brackets
- Hurricanes -18.5 (-17.5) vs ACT Brumbies
- Crusaders -7.5 (-6.5) vs Blues
- Chiefs -17.5 (-13.5) vs Queensland Reds
I predict the Crusaders line will edge out another point during the week.
Early Betting
Posted 31 May 21h54
We have handicaps nice and early this week and here is how the early lines (in brackets) compare to mine
- Hurricanes -18.5 (-17.5) vs ACT Brumbies
- Crusaders -11.5 (-6.5) vs Blues
- Chiefs -15.5 (-13.5) vs Queensland Reds
The 5 point difference in the Crusaders game is enough to get me involved early
BET: 3 units (1-5) Crusaders -6.5 at 0.93/1 at WSB
Round 16 Results
Crusaders 47 Hurricanes 14
There was plenty of money for the Crusaders and they were eventually backed into double-digit favourites (from -3.5) once it became clear the Hurricanes didn’t need to win the game and would prefer to avoid a playoff trip against the Crusaders.
My bet here was Crusaders -4.5 first-half handicap and that arrived in some style as the hosts dominated from the outset.
Reds 45 Fijian Drua 24
This wasn’t a game I was especially strong on, but I decided to go for over 60.5 points. It didn’t exactly arrive comfortably, but there was still a bit of time left when the total was cleared.
From a handicap perspective the Reds closed around -16.5, so the late disallowed try for the Drua proved massive for handicap punters.
Brumbies 19 Moana Pasifika 21
The Brumbies were huge favourites here, closing around -24.5 with a total points line of 66.5. I decided to stay away from the game and that proved to be the right call.
I was leaning towards points, but instead Moana produced one of the biggest upsets of the season to claim a famous win and their 1st of the season.
Chiefs 59 Blues 34
This was my major disappointment of the weekend. I thought a motivated Blues side could really challenge the Chiefs and when they raced into a 10-0 lead things were looking promising.
But after that the Blues became their own worst enemies with errors and ill-discipline proving costly. The Chiefs, despite missing a few players, were hugely impressive and comfortably covered the -5.5 handicap.
Western Force 31 Waratahs 25
The total points line was backed down during the week from 54.5 to 50.5.
I expected a close contest and took the Force to win by 1-12 points at odds of 37/20. In the end that bet arrived and I had a decent weekend overall in Super Rugby.
Qualifying Finals Fixtures and Projected Handicaps
Posted 31 May 09h20
Below are the qualifying finals fixtures together with my early projected handicaps. I will compare them to the bookmakers once the markets fully settle later today, tomorrow or on Monday.
- Hurricanes -18.5 vs ACT Brumbies
- Crusaders -11.5 vs Blues
- Chiefs -15.5 vs Queensland Reds
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