We’re down to the last four teams in the United Rugby Championship and in this blog we recap the quarterfinal results, project the semifinal handicaps and keep an eye on all things betting-related before having a punt in each game.
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Bet: Leinster v Stormers
Posted 06 June 12h53
2 units (1-5) Leinster -14.5 at 0.94/1 at Betxchange
I initially looked quite hard at the Stormers team total unders around the 16.5 mark, although ideally I would have preferred a point or two extra there, even with conditions not looking particularly great.
At the end of the day though, I’m expecting Leinster to simply prove too strong in Dublin.
I made the game Leinster -14.5 and called the move from the -12.55 earlier in the week, so I’m slightly kicking myself for not getting on sooner.
As you’ll see from the post below though, I do at least have some excuses for today’s delayed involvement, albeit entirely self-inflicted ones.
The total points line is sitting at 49.5 and that looks fairly accurate to me, so rather than force a play there, I’m happy to stick with the handicap and back Leinster to cover the number.
Bet: Glasgow Warriors v Bulls
Posted 06 June 12h48
1.5 units Bulls win at 1.38/1 at BetXchange
Apologies for the late post, but those who read the newsletter will know that I had my daughter’s birthday party last night.
Although the intention was very much to be up for the Crusaders game this morning, it turned into more of a case of getting home around that time and, let’s just say, I’m feeling fairly sensitive today.
There has been money for the Bulls during the week, with the handicap moving from +3.5 to +2.5, so I’ve missed the best of the number slightly.
That being said, this is still the direction I want to be on.
I think the Bulls have the forward pack to take control of this game physically and put Glasgow under pressure for long periods.
Glasgow have produced some decent results this season, but they still haven’t entirely convinced me and I’m prepared to back the Bulls to go to Scotland and get the job done outright.
Money for Leinster bit just a bit
Posted 04 June 10h012
Leinster have gone -13.5 at Betxchange but there is still -12.5 available. I still fancy they will start -14.5
Glasgow remain -3.5 at home to the Bulls.
All quiet on the betting front
Posted 02 June 08h26
The handicaps are stable although I sense Leinster are going to start moving out soon and still reckon they start -14.5.
Early Betting
Posted 31 May 22h12
The betting is out and the early handicaps are in brackets next to my projections
- Glasgow Warriors -4.5 (-3.5) vs Vodacom Bulls
- Leinster -14.5 (-12.5) vs DHL Stormers
No significant differences in opinion and I will be keeping the powder dry although I reckon Leinster will start closer to my line.
QUARTERFINAL RESULTS – 4 FROM 4 FOR THE BLOG
Glasgow Warriors 33 Connacht 21
The handicap here was Glasgow Warriors -12.5 and it proved a very tight one for punters. The points line was 52.5 so also went down to the wire.
Connacht played very well in the first half and were right in the contest at halftime before Glasgow gradually pulled away after the break. Even then Connacht refused to totally disappear and kept fighting to the end.
I was on Connacht +12.5 here, so it was a decent start to the URC weekend.
Vodacom Bulls 45 Munster 14
The Bulls were heavily backed from around -11.5 to -16.5 and they delivered for punters in style.
They started fast and effectively had the game wrapped up by halftime. The total points line varied between 58.5 and 60.5 during the week and my straight bet was under 60.5 points, which somehow arrived with no points in the last 15 minutes.
The under 58.5 was used in my newsletter accumulator, which ultimately wouldn’t have mattered as other legs failed to arrive.
DHL Stormers 44 Cardiff Rugby 21
The Stormers opened around -14.5 favourites with the points line set at 49.5.
With conditions looking excellent in Cape Town, I opted to back the overs and that bet arrived comfortably as both sides contributed to the points tally in a game which for me lacked the quality of a playoff fixture.
Leinster 59 Fidelity ADT Lions 10
The big question coming into this match was Leinster’s mindset after their heavy Champions Cup final defeat to Bordeaux the previous week.
They clearly came out determined to make a statement in the URC and were backed from around -12.5 to -16.5 before kickoff.
The points line closed around 56.5 and, based on previous meetings between the teams, I went with Lions under 19.5 points. That bet never really looked in danger and capped a perfect URC weekend.
Semifinal Fixtures and Projected Handicaps
Posted 31 May 09h35
Below are my early handicap projections, which I will compare to the bookmakers once the lines are released.
- Glasgow Warriors -4.5 vs Vodacom Bulls
- Leinster -14.5 vs DHL Stormers
Early Thoughts
The Glasgow versus Bulls clash looks the tougher semifinal to call from a betting perspective. The Bulls have looked excellent in Pretoria but now face a very different challenge away from home against the defending champions.
This is a repeat of the Champions Cup round of 16 fixture which Glasgow edged.
Leinster should start double digit favourites, but the Stormers have already shown in previous seasons that they are capable of producing big performances away from home in playoff rugby.
As always at this stage of the season, team news, travel and motivation become hugely important factors and I’ll wait to see where the bookmakers open before deciding whether there is any early value.