Round 13 of the Super Rugby Pacific continues as the race for playoff positions intensifies. In this blog we look back at the Round 12 action and the updated table, project the handicaps for week 13 and then place bets as kick off approaches.
Bet: Brumbies v Western Force
Posted 09 May 09h00
1 unit Brumbies win by 1-12 points inclusive at 18/10 at BetXchange
The handicap for this game is Brumbies -5.5 and that is pretty much exactly where I set it.
Looking at the points market, conditions are expected to be good in Canberra and the total is currently sitting at 56.5.
I am not especially strong on this game from a betting perspective, so I’ll take a smaller interest play on the Brumbies edging out a tight one.
The Force have been competitive for large parts of the season and, while the Brumbies deserve favouritism at home, this has the feel of a match that could stay within a converted try either way for most of the contest.
Bet: Moana Pasifika v Hurricanes
Posted 08 May 23h10
2 units Moana Pasifika over 16.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
This handicap opened with the Hurricanes as 33.5-point favourites and was backed in to touch 28.5 at one stage before settling at around the 30-point mark at the time of writing.
The main points line is sitting at 64.5 at BetXchange, although you can get 62.5 at Pokerbet.
Both sides are missing players, which is obviously a slight concern with the Moana Pasifika team total play, but I do think this is shaping up as a high-scoring game.
Moana Pasifika have shown throughout the season that they can be dangerous with ball in hand and, in what should be an open contest, I’m hoping they can get over for the three tries required to land this bet.
Bet: Highlanders v Waratahs
Posted 08 May 22h59
1 unit Waratahs win at 12/5 at BetXchange
The handicap has been sitting at Highlanders -6.5 for most of the week, but there has been some late support for the home side and the line had moved to -7.5 at the time of writing.
Having looked through the line-ups, I make these sides very evenly matched. I can understand the Highlanders being favourites at home under the roof in Dunedin, but I have to agree with Nathan on Thursday night’s rugby betting show, The Handicap, where he said this is a game the Waratahs can win.
The points line is set at 55.5 and, if pushed for a bet in that market, I would lean towards the overs.
At the price though, I think the value sits with the Waratahs outright.
Bet: Reds v Chiefs
Posted 07 May 23h59
3 units under 58.5 points at 10/11 at 9/10 at Pokerbet
The Reds are +5.5 which is exactly where I set the handicap.
Fortunately my interest is in the points market and the main line is set at 58.5.
Conditions look like being decent but in Brisbane I just can’t shake the feel this line is 2 to 3 points too high.
This is an important game for both teams and I think there will be plenty of kicking and hopefully the odd “quiet 10 minutes”
Bet: Crusaders v Blues
Posted 07 May 22h53
1.5 units (1-5) Blues win at 16/10 at WSB
This game opened level and the Crusaders are now -4.5 close to the -5.5 I projected.
Although the handicap is where I expected I am leaning Blues here and give them a decent shout of beating a Crusaders team that just isn’t the same without Will Jordan.
The Saders beat the Waratahs by 15 points in their 1st game in their new stadium but I felt that result flattered them and I am backing the Blues for an upset win.
The points line is 54.5 having opened 59.5 and that is on reports that despite being indoors the ball can get quite slippery.
The model I am giving input on is also projecting a Blues win and also fancies Blues over 25.5 points.
My main bet for Friday morning to follow.
Team News
Posted 06 May 10h49
The teams have been announced and you can click here to access them on the official site
There has not been much betting movement and I will be back with latest handicaps and points lines once markets have fully settled.
Round 13 Early handicaps
Posted 04 May 16h03
The handicaps are out and in brackets next to mine
Crusaders -5.5 (-1.5) v Blues
Reds +5.5 (+6.5) v Chiefs
Highlanders -8.5 (-6.5) v Waratahs
Moana Pasifika +28.5 (+33.5) v Hurricanes
Brumbies -6.5 (-6.5) v Force
A 4 point difference in Crusaders game and 5 points in Pasifika match but no early move this week.
Round 13 – Projected Handicaps
Posted 03 May 22h42
Below are my projected handicaps and thoughts. These will be compared with the bookies on Monday.
Crusaders -5.5 vs Blues – should be a typical, action packed but tight derby
Reds +5.5 vs Chiefs – 3 plays 4 and should be a cracker
Highlanders -8.5 vs Waratahs – loser will really battle to make the top 6
Moana Pasifika +28.5 vs Hurricanes – keep an eye on team news, type of game Canes may rest players
Brumbies -6.5 vs Western Force – crucial Aussie derby
Before we get into this weekend’s action, let’s take a look at how things stand.
ROUND 12 RESULTS
Hurricanes 38 – 31 Crusaders – Hurricanes started -13.5 and it was a belter of the game but a loss for me as I was on under 60.5 points
Waratahs 17 – 20 Force – The Force started +4.5 and pulled off a minor upset. It was a poor Friday for me as I took over 52.5 points.
Drua 24 – 14 Highlanders – The Drua beat the -4.5 handicap and got my Saturday off to a good start
Moana Pasifika 19 – 45 Blues – The Blues started a well backed -28.5 but Moana started well. I was on the over 62.5 which arrived in the nick of time
Reds 30 – 21 Brumbies – The Reds started a well backed -3.5 and having taken the 5/6 they win early in the week it was a strong finish to Super Rugby.
LEAGUE TABLE SNAPSHOT
The Hurricanes (40 pts) have moved clear at the top after their win over the Crusaders, opening a gap over the chasing pack and they have a game in hand over the Blues in 2nd.
The Blues (38 pts) sit 2nd and continue to build momentum, while the Chiefs (36 pts) remain well placed in 3rd with a game in hand over the Blues.
The Reds (27 pts) and Crusaders (27 pts) occupy 4th and 5th respectively, with the Brumbies (25 pts) rounding out the top six.
Outside the playoff places, the Drua (20 pts), Waratahs (20 pts) and Highlanders (20 pts) are all still within striking distance, while the Force (18 pts) have kept their faint hopes alive with a key win last week.
I will be back later tonight with projected handicaps
