We head into the penultimate round of the United Rugby Championship season and the playoff picture is tightening up nicely. With just two rounds to go after this, the race for the top 8 places is entering its decisive phase and in this blog we focus on the betting angle.
Bet: 8/1 Treble in the Remaining URC Games
Posted 09 May 09h39
1 unit (1-5) treble at 8.16/1 at BetXchange
- Dragons v Edinburgh over 51.5 points
- Ospreys v Scarlets over 48.5 points
- Connacht to beat Munster by 1-12 points
I’m not going to get heavily involved in the remaining URC fixtures, but there are a few angles that appeal from a multiples perspective.
Current handicaps have Ospreys -5.5 at home to the Scarlets, Dragons +3.5 at home to Edinburgh, and Connacht -3.5 against Munster.
There has been a significant betting move in that final game after it became apparent Munster would be missing a few key players. It is a massive match for both sides, but particularly Connacht who need a win to stay in playoff contention.
The two totals legs are both based on games that should be played in good conditions with sides who are not in playoff contention.
The over 51.5 in Dragons v Edinburgh is priced at 0.88/1, while over 48.5 in Ospreys v Scarlets is available at 0.95/1.
The final leg is Connacht to win by 1-12 points at 15/10, with the expectation being that the home side edge what should be a high-pressure and tightly contested encounter.
Bet: Leinster v Lions
Posted 09 May 09h30
0.5 units (1-5) Lions win at 23/5 at BetXchange
2 units (1-5) Lions +13.5 at 1.87 at WSB
This handicap has bounced around during the week with plenty of speculation around the team news. The line came down from Leinster -12.5 to -10.5 before drifting back out again.
The Lions are very close to full strength, while Leinster are resting a few players and have gone with a fairly loaded bench, particularly in the front row.
Leinster have seldom run away with teams this season and, given the importance of this match with both sides level on points and chasing a top-four finish, I think we are going to get a much closer contest than the bookmakers expect.
The Lions have been competitive throughout the campaign and I give them a reasonable chance of pulling off an upset win, while the +13.5 start also appeals in what should be a high-intensity encounter.
Bet: Sharks v Benetton
Posted 09 May 09h22
2 units (1-5) over 8.5 tries at 0.97/1 at Pokerbet
Money has come for Benetton in this game, with the handicap moving from Sharks -14.5 to -10.5 after the Italians named a fairly strong squad for the trip to South Africa.
This is effectively a dead rubber with neither side able to make the playoffs, and for that reason the bookmakers are expecting a high-scoring game with the points line currently sitting at 57.5, which still feels slightly wrong to me in Durban.
That being said, conditions are expected to be good and there does not appear to be much humidity around, which could help produce a more open contest.
I also suspect we may get one of those matches where defence becomes optional for long periods, so rather than attack the main points line, my play is in the total tries market where I’m looking for at least nine tries.
Bet: Bulls v Zebre
Posted 09 May 09h16
2 units Zebre over 3.5 tries at 27/20 at Pokerbet
The handicap for this game is Bulls -32.5 or -33.5 depending on where you are betting, while the points line is set at 73.5.
I was really hoping the bookmakers would pitch this total somewhere in the early to mid-60s, as I would have been keen on the overs at that sort of number. At 73.5 though, I am battling to pull the trigger on the main total.
That being said, I do think Zebre can contribute to the scoring.
The hope here is that the Bulls get well clear at some stage and perhaps take the foot off the gas late in the game, allowing Zebre opportunities to chase a four-try bonus point and hopefully land this play.
Bet: Ulster v Stormers
Posted 08 May 15h03
2 units (1-5) Stormers win at 9/10 at Betxchange
There has been support for Ulster from +2.5 to +0.5.
They will be on a high after booking their spot in the Challenge Cup final but they are missing a couple of players and the top of the table Stormers will be fresher.
At 9/10 I am on the Stormers.
The points line is 50.5 and with some rain forecast before the game that looks about right.
Looking at the Glasgow v Cardiff game the handicap is -16.5 exactly where I set it and the points line is 54.5.
The weather looks likely to be overcast but dry but I will stick to just the Stormers bet tonight.
Round 17 - Early Handicaps
Posted 04 May 16h09
Below are the early handicaps in brackets compared to mine
Glasgow Warriors -16.5 (-15.5) vs Cardiff Rugby
Ulster +4.5 (+2.5) vs DHL Stormers
Vodacom Bulls -27.5 (-29.5) vs Zebre Parma
Hollywoodbets Sharks -14.5 (-13.5) vs Benetton
Ospreys -6.5 (-4.5) vs Scarlets
Leinster -12.5 (-11.5) vs Fidelity ADT Lions
Dragons RFC +5.5 (+3.5) vs Edinburgh Rugby
Connacht +4.5 (+2.5) vs Munster
All within 2points (quite shocked) so no early moves
Round 17 – Projected Handicaps
Posted 03 May 22h33
Below are my projected handicaps and thoughts. These will be compared with the bookies on Monday.
Glasgow Warriors -16.5 vs Cardiff Rugby – Glasgow should have recovered from their SA trip and should go full strength
Ulster +4.5 vs DHL Stormers – tough one, Ulster team news will be interesting after they booked their spot in the Challenge Cup final
Vodacom Bulls -27.5 vs Zebre Parma – how high is high enough?
Hollywoodbets Sharks -14.5 vs Benetton – dead rubber, surely Sharks will try and finish strong?
Ospreys -6.5 vs Scarlets – dead rubber but a derby
Leinster -12.5 vs Fidelity ADT Lions – Leinster may manage squad with the final on the horizon
Dragons RFC +5.5 vs Edinburgh Rugby – Dragons may be flat and may also manage players after semi-final loss
Connacht +4.5 vs Munster – together with Ulster v Stormers the biggest match up of the weekend
LEAGUE TABLE & OUTRIGHT UPDATE
The Stormers (56 pts) have moved to the summit and are now 3rd favourites in the outright market at 79/20.
Just behind them, the Glasgow Warriors (55 pts) at 69/20 will be looking to bounce back from a poor SA tour, while the Lions (53 pts) and Leinster (53 pts) sit 3rd and 4th respectively. Despite being 4th, Leinster are still favourites at 21/20, while the Lions are on offer at 35/2.
Cardiff with 50 points are the rank outsiders in the betting at 124/1.
The Bulls (49 pts) are at 6/1 and Munster (51 pts) at 31/2 are also right in the mix.
At the playoff cutoff:
- Ulster (47 pts) currently hold 8th and are 33/1
- Connacht (44 pts) are just outside the playoffs and must win to keep realistic hopes alive and they are 98/1
Further down, the likes of the Sharks (36 pts) and Ospreys (35 pts) are effectively running out of runway.
Here are the URC Round 17 fixtures with venue and kickoff times:
Glasgow Warriors vs Cardiff Rugby – 20:45 (Scotstoun Stadium)
Ulster vs DHL Stormers – 20:45 (Kingspan Stadium)
Vodacom Bulls vs Zebre Parma – 13:45 (Loftus Versfeld)
Hollywoodbets Sharks vs Benetton – 16:00 (Hollywoodbets Kings Park)
Ospreys vs Scarlets – 18:30 (Swansea.com Stadium)
Leinster vs Fidelity ADT Lions – 18:30 (Aviva Stadium)
Dragons RFC vs Edinburgh Rugby – 20:45 (Rodney Parade)
Connacht vs Munster – 20:45 (Dexcom Stadium)
I will be back with projected handicaps tonight