We head into the penultimate round of the United Rugby Championship season and the playoff picture is tightening up nicely. With just two rounds to go after this, the race for the top 8 places is entering its decisive phase and in this blog we focus on the betting angle.
Round 17 – Projected Handicaps
Posted 03 May 22h33
Below are my projected handicaps and thoughts. These will be compared with the bookies on Monday.
Glasgow Warriors -16.5 vs Cardiff Rugby – Glasgow should have recovered from their SA trip and should go full strength
Ulster +4.5 vs DHL Stormers – tough one, Ulster team news will be interesting after they booked their spot in the Challenge Cup final
Vodacom Bulls -27.5 vs Zebre Parma – how high is high enough?
Hollywoodbets Sharks -14.5 vs Benetton – dead rubber, surely Sharks will try and finish strong?
Ospreys -6.5 vs Scarlets – dead rubber but a derby
Leinster -12.5 vs Fidelity ADT Lions – Leinster may manage squad with the final on the horizon
Dragons RFC +5.5 vs Edinburgh Rugby – Dragons may be flat and may also manage players after semi-final loss
Connacht +4.5 vs Munster – together with Ulster v Stormers the biggest match up of the weekend
LEAGUE TABLE & OUTRIGHT UPDATE
The Stormers (56 pts) have moved to the summit and are now 3rd favourites in the outright market at 79/20.
Just behind them, the Glasgow Warriors (55 pts) at 69/20 will be looking to bounce back from a poor SA tour, while the Lions (53 pts) and Leinster (53 pts) sit 3rd and 4th respectively. Despite being 4th, Leinster are still favourites at 21/20, while the Lions are on offer at 35/2.
Cardiff with 50 points are the rank outsiders in the betting at 124/1.
The Bulls (49 pts) are at 6/1 and Munster (51 pts) at 31/2 are also right in the mix.
At the playoff cutoff:
- Ulster (47 pts) currently hold 8th and are 33/1
- Connacht (44 pts) are just outside the playoffs and must win to keep realistic hopes alive and they are 98/1
Further down, the likes of the Sharks (36 pts) and Ospreys (35 pts) are effectively running out of runway.
Here are the URC Round 17 fixtures with venue and kickoff times:
Glasgow Warriors vs Cardiff Rugby – 20:45 (Scotstoun Stadium)
Ulster vs DHL Stormers – 20:45 (Kingspan Stadium)
Vodacom Bulls vs Zebre Parma – 13:45 (Loftus Versfeld)
Hollywoodbets Sharks vs Benetton – 16:00 (Hollywoodbets Kings Park)
Ospreys vs Scarlets – 18:30 (Swansea.com Stadium)
Leinster vs Fidelity ADT Lions – 18:30 (Aviva Stadium)
Dragons RFC vs Edinburgh Rugby – 20:45 (Rodney Parade)
Connacht vs Munster – 20:45 (Dexcom Stadium)
I will be back with projected handicaps tonight