We’ve reached the final round of the regular season in Super Rugby Pacific and while the top six playoff spots are now locked in, there is still plenty to play for in terms of final positioning and momentum heading into the knockout rounds.
Bet: Force v Waratahs
Posted 13 May 09h20
1 unit Force win by 1-12 points inclusive at 1.85/1 at BetXchange
The Force are -5.5 favourites for this game, which looks set to be played in fairly poor conditions.
That has seen the total points line come down from 54.5 to 50.5 during the week and I do think there is a decent chance this turns into a scrappy encounter.
With neither side having anything meaningful left to play for, this has all the makings of a fairly untidy contest and, if pushed on the totals market, I would lean towards the unders.
The Force have generally been competitive at home throughout the season and I’m backing them to do just enough to edge out the Waratahs in what I expect to be a fairly tight game.
Bet: Chiefs v Blues
Posted 29 May 22h55
1.5 units (1-5) Blues win at 2.02/1 at Pokerbet
The handicap for this game is Chiefs -6.5 and the total points line is set at 58.5.
The Chiefs are already guaranteed second place on the table, while the Blues need to win this match if they want to finish third and secure a home playoff after the Crusaders beat the Hurricanes in the round 16 opener.
Both sides are missing a few players, but motivation can be a huge factor at this stage of the season and I just feel the Blues, with more on the line, represent the value in the outright market.
Rather than get involved with the handicap, I’m going to keep things simple and back the visitors to win the game outright.
The early fixture sees the Brumbies host Moana Pasifika, with the Brumbies currently -24.5 and the total points line sitting at 66.5.
I do think the Brumbies win comfortably and score plenty of points, but both markets are just beyond the numbers where I was looking to get involved, so I’m going to sit that game out and enjoy a bit of a sleep-in instead.
Bet: Reds v Drua
Posted 28 May 23h03
2.5 units (1-5) over 60.5 points at 0.96/1 at Pokerbet
The Reds are -16.5 favourites for this match, which is exactly where I handicapped the game and the line has remained fairly stable throughout the week.
They have named what looks to be their strongest side of the season and I am very much in their camp as far as the handicap is concerned.
That being said, I prefer the points markets here and, in particular, the total points line which is currently sitting at 60.5.
This feels like the sort of game where the Drua will play with absolutely no inhibition and look to attack from everywhere, while the Reds themselves should also score plenty of points given the quality they have selected.
With conditions expected to suit attacking rugby, I’m expecting a fast-paced contest with plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams.
Bet: Crusaders v Hurricanes
Posted 28 May 22h44
2 units (1-5) Crusaders -4.5 first-half handicap at 1.93/1 at World Sports Betting
I handicapped this game Crusaders -6.5 on the assumption that the Hurricanes would rotate their squad after securing top spot on the table.
They have indeed made a number of changes, but I am still a little surprised by the extent of the market move, with the line now sitting at Crusaders -13.5.
I’m not going to get involved in the full-game handicap though, as I much prefer the first-half angle.
The Hurricanes are fielding several new combinations and I expect the Crusaders to come out firing early as they look to extend their unbeaten record at their new stadium.
They also know that a victory here would put pressure on the Blues and move them into third place on the table, so motivation certainly won’t be lacking. Nathan made the point on "The Handicap" that the Canes beating the Crusaders would likely mean they meet in the playoffs so deep down I don't think they will be too worried about this one.
The total points line is set at 60.5 and that looks fairly accurate to me. If I were to get involved in the points markets, I would probably lean towards Hurricanes under 24.5 points.
For the main play though, I’m backing the Crusaders to lead by at least five points at halftime.
Betting Update
Posted 28 May 20h38
Here are the latest handicaps and total points
Early Handicaps
Posted 25 May 09h57
Below the early handicaps in brackets next to mine
Crusaders -5.5 (-6.5) vs Hurricanes
Queensland Reds -16.5 (-16.5) vs Fijian Drua
ACT Brumbies -25.5 (-22.5) vs Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -2.5 (-5.5) vs Blues
Western Force -5.5 (-5.5) vs Waratahs
3 point differences in the Brumbies v Pasifika and Chiefs v Blues games, I am considering a Blues ML play here - going to ponder for a bit
Round 16 Handicap Projections
Posted 24 May 21h29
Below are my handicap projections, the bookies should be out in the morning
Crusaders -5.5 vs Hurricanes - the Crusaders need to win to secure a home playoff
Reds -16.5 vs Fijian Drua
Brumbies -25.5 vs Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -2.5 vs Blues - watch Chiefs team news, they are secire in 2nd, the Blues may need to win to finish 3rd
Western Force -5.5 vs Waratahs - a dead rubber
Round 15 Results
Posted 24 May
Crusaders 36-32 Chiefs – The Saders were back from +2.5 to slight favourites and I took them to win at just under 1/1
Waratahs 14-21 Brumbies – I took an early position on the Waratahs at 14/10 but the market disagreed and in something of a hedge I took Brumbies and under 54.5 at just over 2/1. I cam out just above square but a draw would have been a disaster
Moana Pasifika 31-33 Reds – I was on the Reds minus 16.5 but they were fortunate just to win.
Hurricanes 45-28 Highlanders – I took Highlanders over 17.5 which came home fairly easily
Western Force 19-15 Fijian Drua – my biggest play was the Force over 5.5 tries and the less said about this one the better.
Table Update
The Hurricanes have secured top spot on the table and the Chiefs cannot be caught in second place. Third spot is still up for grabs, with the Blues on 38 points, two points ahead of the Crusaders. The Brumbies are three points behind the Crusaders in fifth on 33 points.
The Reds sit sixth on 32 points, while the Waratahs are seventh on 27 points but can no longer make the playoffs as they will have less wins than the Reds.
Round 16 Fixtures
Crusaders vs Hurricanes
Reds vs Fijian Drua
Brumbies vs Moana Pasifika
Chiefs vs Blues
Western Force vs Waratahs
My handicap projections will follow
