The regular season of the United Rugby Championship is now complete and we are down to the final eight teams. This blog covers the quarter-finals from a betting angle.
Bet: Leinster v Lions
Posted 30 May 09h58
2.5 units (1-5) Lions under 19.5 points at 0.89/1 at Pokerbet
There has been solid support for Leinster during the week, with the handicap moving from -12.5 out to -16.5 at the time of writing.
The total points line in Dublin is sitting at 56.5 and, while some forecasts suggest there could be a few showers around, overall conditions should still be fairly decent.
Leinster were ripped apart defensively by Bordeaux in last week’s Champions Cup final and they have certainly conceded more points this season than we are perhaps used to seeing from them.
That being said, I’m expecting a huge defensive response from the Irish side here and I think their defence could be back somewhere near its best for this playoff clash.
In the last two meetings between these sides in Dublin, Leinster managed to keep the Lions below 10 points on both occasions and I’m happy to back the visitors to stay under their 19.5 team total here.
At the line available with Pokerbet, that looks the best angle into the game for me.
Bet: Stormers v Cardiff
Posted 30 May 09h40
2 units (1-5) over 49.5 points at 10/11 at World Sports Betting
The Stormers are -14.5 favourites against a Cardiff side that beat them just two weeks ago in Wales.
The total points line for this semi-final is set at 49.5 and, while I can understand the bookmakers quoting a number in the high 40s given the occasion, I still think there is room for points here.
Looking at the Stormers side in particular, there is plenty of attacking quality on the field and I expect them to play with tempo whenever opportunities present themselves.
Conditions in Cape Town are expected to be very good and I’m hoping we get the sort of open game that produces plenty of scoring chances.
The target is straightforward enough, I’m looking for this one to reach 50 points or more.
Bet: Bulls v Munster
Posted 30 May 09h10
2 units (1-5) under 60.5 points at 0.92/1 at Pokerbet
The points line for this game is generally sitting at 58.5 and I was considering an unders play there as well.
Games at Loftus can very quickly turn into high-scoring affairs, but this is a semi-final and I would not be surprised if we get a tighter contest than the bookmakers are expecting.
There is also the possibility that the Bulls get well clear on the scoreboard and then opt for a more conservative approach later in the game, which could easily lead to some quieter periods from a scoring perspective.
The handicap has moved significantly during the week, shifting from Bulls -11.5 out to -16.5, so there has clearly been strong support for the home side.
With Munster missing a few key players, I am certainly not looking to oppose the Bulls, but for betting purposes I much prefer the value in the total points market and will back this game to stay under the 60.5 line.
Bet: Glasgow Warriors v Connacht
Posted 29 May 14h27
2 units (1-5) Connacht +12.5 at 0.96/1 at BetXchange
This handicap has been fairly stable throughout the week and, like many of the panel and audience members on last night’s episode of The Handicap, our rugby betting show, I think Connacht have what it takes to really push Glasgow in this game.
I certainly would not rule out the possibility of an upset.
Connacht have finished the season incredibly strongly and arrive with plenty of confidence, while Glasgow, despite some solid results and finishing top of the log, just do not quite look like the same side they were when winning the title a couple of seasons back.
The total points line is set at 52.5 and, with some drizzle expected during the day and the possibility of rain during the match itself, I would probably lean towards the unders from a totals perspective.
For the main play though, I’m going to stick with the Connacht handicap and back them to stay competitive throughout what should be a tight playoff encounter.
Betting Update
Posted 28 May 20h42
Here are the latest handicaps and points lines
Glasgow Warriors -12.5 vs Connacht Rugby, Points 52.5
Vodacom Bulls -14.5 vs Munster, Points 58.5
DHL Stormers -14.5 vs Cardiff Rugby, Points 49.5
Leinster -15.5 vs Fidelity ADT Lions, Points 52.5
Biggest mover the Bulls from -11.5 to -14.5 and also a 2 point move for Leinster
Click here to watch this weeks "THE HANDICAP" our rugby betting show live on Thursday night at 21h00
All quiet in the batting markets
Posted 24 May 21h24
The markets are stable and perhaps the biggest question is going to be the Leinster mindset after that hammering at the hands of Bordeaux.
Glasgow Warriors -11.5 vs Connacht Rugby
Vodacom Bulls -11.5 vs Munster
DHL Stormers -14.5 vs Cardiff Rugby
Leinster -13.5 vs Fidelity ADT Lions
Quarter-Finals Early Handicaps
Posted 19 May 23h29
Below are the early handicaps in brackets next to mine
Glasgow Warriors -14.5 (-11.5) vs Connacht
Vodacom Bulls -9.5 (-11.5) vs Munster
DHL Stormers -10.5 (-14.5) vs Cardiff Rugby
Leinster -14.5 (-13.5) vs Fidelity ADT Lions
All pretty close but 3 points difference in the Glasgow game and 4 in the Stormers game.
I am not getting involved at this point.
Quarter-Finals Handicap Projections
Posted 17 May 18h40
Below my handicap projections for the quarter-finals
Glasgow Warriors -14.5 vs Connacht
Vodacom Bulls -9.5 vs Munster
DHL Stormers -10.5 vs Cardiff Rugby
Leinster -14.5 vs Fidelity ADT Lions
There was plenty of action in Round 18 with playoff places, seeding and home-ground advantage all still on the line heading into the final weekend.
Round 18 Results
Cardiff Rugby 22-16 DHL Stormers – The Stormers were -7.5 but were beaten by a hungry home side. I was on over 48.5 so a poor start
Ulster 22-26 Glasgow Warriors – Glasgow started -9.5 and after leading by double digits they won the game to top the table and that in turn sent Ulster out the tournament.
Edinburgh 5-26 Connacht Rugby – Connacht started -4.5 and had everything to play for and won well. I had a small double on the -4.5 and overs in Ulster which unfortunately missed.
Hollywoodbets Sharks 54-19 Zebre Parma – in my newsletter acca which hit at 6.4/1 I had Sharks over 45.5 points but on the back of an incorrect forecast I took Zebre under 18.5 which lost. The Sharks were 29 point favourites.
Vodacom Bulls 45-19 Benetton Treviso – this was big disappointment of the week. The Bulls were -31.5 and I took Bulls over 8.5 tries. They scored 2 in the 1st 10 minutes but were poor after that with loads of mistakes
Leinster 68-14 Ospreys – Leinster were -23.5 and delivered my half time -10.5 handicap with ease
Scarlets 35-35 Dragons RFC – Scarlets were -6.5 and while this must have been a thriller I never got involved
Munster 24-17 Fidelity ADT Lions – Munster were -6.5 and came from behind to win. I was on under 47.5 and thankfully there were only 10 points in the 2nd half.
Final Table Update
Glasgow Warriors finished top of the table on 65 points and secured home advantage throughout the playoffs after a hard-fought win away to Ulster.
Leinster ended second on 63 points and once again look ominous heading into the knockout stages after hammering the Ospreys by 54 points. They play in the Champions Cup final the week before the quarter-finals.
The DHL Stormers slipped to third following their defeat in Cardiff, while the Vodacom Bulls finished fourth after comfortably seeing off Benetton at Loftus.
Munster claimed fifth spot and will now head back to Pretoria for a quarter-final against the Bulls, while Cardiff Rugby finished sixth after their impressive victory over the Stormers.
The Lions pushed hard this season but ultimately finished seventh after losing away to Munster, while Connacht snuck into the playoffs in eighth after a superb away win over Edinburgh.
Quarter-Final Fixtures
Friday 29 May 2026
Glasgow Warriors vs Connacht Rugby – 20:45 – Scotstoun Stadium
Saturday 30 May 2026
Vodacom Bulls vs Munster – 13:00 – Loftus Versfeld
DHL Stormers vs Cardiff Rugby – 15:30 – DHL Stadium
Leinster vs Fidelity ADT Lions – 21:00 – Aviva Stadium
I will be back with my projected Quarter-Final handicaps later tonight