The URC is back and with it comes a fresh season of betting opportunities. Round 1 throws up some blockbuster fixtures, including the Stormers hosting Leinster in Cape Town.  In this blog we set the stage with fixtures, kick-off times and venues – betting angles and market updates will follow as lines move during the week.

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HEADS UP - RAIN IN JOBURG 

Posted 27 Sep 13h37 

A heads up - some rain in Joburg so conditions may not be as good in Pretoria as I expected 

I am standing firm though and still like overs 

BET: CARDIFF v LIONS

Posted 27 Sep 11h58

4 units Cardiff -6.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets

This handicap opened at -6.5 but we’ve already seen signs of movement, with -10.5 showing at Sportingbet. I’m happy to take the -6.5 here as I expect the Lions to be nursing a Currie Cup hangover (the bad kind), plus they’ve had to make the trip over.

The points line is set at 47.5 and with rain expected, conditions may not be ideal.

BET: TREBLE – 1–12 WINNING MARGINS

Posted 27 Sep 11h53

• Edinburgh 1–12 at 11/8

• Munster 1–12 at 11/8

• Connacht 1–12 at 6/4

This combines the three leans into a speculative treble across Saturday’s URC fixtures. I am not normally a "leaner" but with big interest in the WRWC and Ryder Cup I don't want these games to be stressful. 

Each game looks set up for tight margins given the handicaps, weather conditions, and recent market moves.

1 unit the 1-12 treble at 13/1 at Sportingbet 

LEAN: Connacht v Benetton

Posted 27 Sep 11h46

Handicap: Connacht -5.5 (opened -7.5)
Points line: 51.5
Weather: Some rain expected 

The handicap opened Connacht -7.5 but has shortened to -5.5 with support for Benetton. I was expecting the line to drift the other way, and that movement has put me off the minus. Conditions could be tricky, and while Connacht should still have enough to edge it at home, I prefer the winning margin market. Leaning Connacht 1–12, which completes the treble with Munster 1–12 and Edinburgh 1–12. 

LEAN: Scarlets v Munster

Posted 27 Sep 11h38

Handicap: Scarlets +6.5
Points line: 46.5
Weather: Rain expected 

This handicap opened at Scarlets +4.5 but has since moved out to +6.5 with money for Munster. Conditions are expected to be wet, which should keep things tight. I am leaning towards a close contest, but Munster’s depth should see them edge it. The 1–12 winning margin for Munster is the angle I’ll be adding into the treble alongside Edinburgh 1-12 and a pick from the Connacht game.

LEAN: Zebre v Edinburgh

Posted 27 Sep 11h33

Handicap: Zebre +7.5
Points line: 48.5
Weather: Some rain expected

This isn’t a game I’m going to get directly involved in, but I do lean Edinburgh to edge it. The market looks fairly well set and with conditions likely to be tricky, I don’t see a blowout. My angle would be to back Edinburgh to win by 1–12 points but I won't be watching, and I’ll be adding that into a treble along with plays in the Scarlets and Connacht games.

BET: Bulls v Ospreys

Posted 27 Sep 10h18

This handicap opened at -18.5 Bulls and has pushed out to -20.5 with steady money for the home side. The Bulls are traditionally very strong at Loftus and it’s no surprise to see support coming their way.

We now have a points line of 56.5, and I think this will close closer to 58.5 or perhaps even higher. It’s cool and overcast in Pretoria but dry, and this Bulls team looks stacked. I am tempted by the Bulls over 38.5, but reckon the Ospreys can grab a few and will go total overs.

Bet: 5 units over 55.5 points at 10/11 at Hollywoodbets

Saturday Lineups - bets to follow 

Posted 27 Sep 10h09

Friday night was good and while I was on the Stormers to win I never saw it being stress free. The overs in the Glasgow match was anything but stress free but all is well that ends well! 

Bulls: 15 Devon Williams, 14 Cheswill Jooste, 13 David Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Sebastian de Klerk, 10 Keagan Johannes, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 JJ Theron, 7 Mpilo Gumede, 6 Marcell Coetzee (captain), 5 JF van Heerden, 4 Cobus Wiese, 3 Mornay Smith, 2 Johan Grobbelaar, 1 Gerhard Steenekamp.
Replacements: 16 Juann Else, 17 Alu Tshakweni, 18 Francois Klopper, 19 Nicolas Janse van Rensburg, 20 Nama Xaba, 21 Paul de Wet, 22 Stedman Gans, 23 Willie le Roux.

Ospreys: 15 Jack Walsh, 14 Dan Kasende, 13 Phil Cokanasiga, 12 Keiran Williams, 11 Keelan Giles, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Reuben Morgan-Williams, 8 Morgan Morse, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 Ross Moriarty, 5 James Fender, 4 Rhys Davies, 3 Tom Botha, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Garyn Phillips.
Replacements: 16 Ethan Lewis, 17 Steffan Thomas, 18 Rhys Henry, 19 Huw Sutton, 20 James Ratti, 21 Luke Davies, 22 Tom Florence, 23 Harri Houston.

Zebre: 15 Lorenzo Pani, 14 Mikro Belloni, 13 Giulio Bertaccini, 12 Damiano Mazza, 11 Simone Gesi, 10 Giacomo Da Re, 9 Alessandro Fusco, 8 Giovanni Licata (captain), 7 Bautista Stavile, 6 Davide Ruggeri, 5 Leonard Krumov, 4 Matteo Canali, 3 Juan Pitinari, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Muhamed Hasa.
Replacements: 16 Giampietro Ribaldi, 17 Paolo Buonfiglio, 18 Ion Neculai, 19 Alessandro Ortombina, 20 Guido Volpi, 21 Samuele Locatelli, 22 Thomas Dominguez, 23 Martin Farias.

Edinburgh: 15 Wes Goosen, 14 Harry Paterson, 13 Piers O’Conor, 12 James Lang, 11 Jack Brown, 10 Ben Healy, 9 Ben Vellacott, 8 Magnus Bradbury (captain), 7 Luke Crosbie, 6 Liam McConnell, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Marshall Sykes, 3 Paul Hill, 2 Ewan Ashman, 1 James Whitcombe.
Replacements: 16 Paddy Harrison, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 D’arcy Rae, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Hamish Watson, 21 Charlie Shiel, 22 Findlay Thomson, 23 Duhan van der Merwe.

Scarlets: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Ellis Mee, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taine Plumtree, 7 Josh Macleod (captain), 6 Tristan Davies, 5 Jake Ball, 4 Sam Lousi, 3 Henry Thomas, 2 Harry Thomas, 1 Kemsley Mathias.
Replacements: 16 Kirby Myhill, 17 Alec Hepburn, 18 Harri O’Connor, 19 Max Douglas, 20 Jarrod Taylor, 21 Dane Blacker, 22 Johnny Williams, 23 Macs Page.

Munster: 15 Mike Haley, 14 Shane Daly, 13 Dan Kelly, 12 Alex Nankivell, 11 Thaakir Abrahams, 10 JJ Hanrahan, 9 Craig Casey (captain), 8 Brian Gleeson, 7 Alex Kendellen, 6 Jack O’Donoghue, 5 Fineen Wycherley, 4 Jean Kleyn, 3 Oli Jager, 2 Niall Scannell, 1 Jeremy Loughman.
Replacements: 16 Lee Barron, 17 Josh Wycherley, 18 Conor Bartley, 19 Tom Ahern, 20 Gavin Coombes, 21 Paddy Patterson, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Seán O’Brien.

Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Harri Millard, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Tom Bowen, 10 Callum Sheedy, 9 Johan Mulder, 8 Alun Lawrence, 7 Taine Basham, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Teddy Williams, 4 Josh McNally, 3 Javan Sebastian, 2 Liam Belcher (captain), 1 Rhys Barratt.
Replacements: 16 Evan Lloyd, 17 Danny Southworth, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Ben Donnell, 20 Dan Thomas, 21 Aled Davies, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Jacob Beetham.

Lions: 15 Quan Horn (captain), 14 Tapiwa Mafura, 13 Henco van Wyk, 12 Richard Kriel, 11 Angelo Davids, 10 Lubabalo Dobela, 9 Nico Steyn, 8 WJ Steenkamp, 7 Ruan Venter, 6 Jarod Cairns, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Dylan Sjoblom, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Franco Marais, 1 SJ Kotze.
Replacements: 16 Morné Brandon, 17 Heiko Pohlmann, 18 RF Schoeman, 19 Darrien Landsberg, 20 Renzo du Plessis, 21 Haashim Pead, 22 Sam Francis, 23 Rynhardt Jonker.

Connacht: 15 Sean Naughton, 14 Chay Mullins, 13 Byron Ralston, 12 Cathal Forde, 11 Shayne Bolton, 10 Josh Ioane, 9 Caolin Blade, 8 Sean Jansen, 7 Shamus Hurley-Langton, 6 Paul Boyle (captain), 5 Josh Murphy, 4 Niall Murray, 3 Sam Illo, 2 Dylan Tierney-Martin, 1 Peter Dooley.
Replacements: 16 Dave Heffernan, 17 Jordan Duggan, 18 Fiachna Barrett, 19 David O’Connor, 20 Joe Joyce, 21 Ben Murphy, 22 Jack Carty, 23 Cian Prendergast.

Benetton: 15 Matt Gallagher, 14 Louis Lynagh, 13 Tommaso Menoncello, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Onisi Ratave, 10 Jacob Umaga, 9 Louis Werchon, 8 So’otala Fa’aso’o, 7 Michele Lamaro (captain), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Eli Snyman, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Siua Maile, 1 Ivan Nemer.
Replacements: 16 Richie Asiata, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Tiziano Pasquali, 19 Riccardo Favretto, 20 Lorenzo Cannone, 21 Alessandro Garbisi, 22 Giuliano Avaca, 23 Paolo Odogwu.

NO BET: Ulster v Dragons

Posted 26 Sep11h59

I won’t be getting involved in this one, there is just too much rugby and of course Ryder Cup golf on the go. The handicap has been fairly steady at Ulster -18.5, but nothing appeals in either the cap or points market where the line is 52.5. With other plays already lined up this weekend, I’m happy to give this match a miss although if you are the type who has to have a bet then perhaps over 52.5 points doubled into the Glasgow overs.

BET: Glasgow Warriors v Sharks

Posted 26 Sep 11h52

3 units over 52.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet.

This handicap opened at Glasgow -12.5 but moved quickly out to -20.5 once it became clear just how many players the Sharks are missing. It has since come back slightly to -18.5, but my interest is firmly in the points market.

The line is set at 52.5 and with good conditions expected, I think we’ll see a match with plenty of actionand hopefully the Sharks can contribute.

BET: Stormers v Leinster

Posted 26 Sep 11h40

1 unit Stormers win at 75/20 at WSB.

The handicap opened Stormers +8.5 and has now shifted to +9.5 across most bookies. Looking at the teams, both are missing key players, but I don’t think the Stormers lineup is as weak as many are making it out to be.

I’ll be keeping my stakes small in Week 1 of the URC, but I’m happy to take a nibble on the Stormers to spring a surprise.

URC Week 1 Weather

Posted 26 Sep 00h14 

Stormers v Leinster – Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town
Kick-off: Friday 26 Sept, 19:00 SAST
Handicap: Stormers +9.5
Weather: Dry, clear, 20 degrees, humidity mid 60's - click here for updates

Glasgow Warriors v Sharks – Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
Kick-off: Friday 26 Sept, 21:05 SAST
Handicap: Glasgow -20.5
Weather: 13 dgrees, humidity mid 60's, cloudy but dry - click here for updates

Ulster v Dragons – Ravenhill Stadium, Belfast
Kick-off: Friday 26 Sept, 21:05 SAST
Handicap: Ulster -16.5
Weather: Temp 15 degrees, Humidity early 70,s, cloudy but dry - click here for updates

Bulls v Ospreys – Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 14:00 SAST
Handicap: Bulls -18.5
Weather: Overcast, dry, humidity in 30's, Temp 26 degrees - click here for updates

Zebre v Edinburgh – Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, Parma
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 16:05 SAST
Handicap: Zebre +7.5
Weather: Temp 18 degrees, cloudy, rain forecast, humidity in 70's - click here for updates

Scarlets v Munster – Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 18:30 SAST
Handicap: Scarlets +4.5
Weather: Temp 14 degrees, rain forecast, humidity in 70's - click here for updates

Cardiff v Lions – Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 20:45 SAST
Handicap: Cardiff -7.5
Weather: Temp 15 degrees, rain forecast, humidity around 90% - click here for updates

Connacht v Benetton – The Sportsground, Galway
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 20:45 SAST
Handicap: Connacht -7.5
Weather: 12 degrees, rain, humidity in 80's - click here for updates

Friday Lineups 

Posted 25 Sep 23h43

Stormers: 15 Wandisile Simelane, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Ruhan Nel (captain), 12 Dan du Plessis, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Jurie Matthee, 9 Stefan Ungerer, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 JD Schickerling, 4 Adré Smith, 3 Neethling Fouché, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Vernon Matongo.
Replacements: 16 JJ Kotze, 17 Olly Reid, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Ruben van Heerden, 20 Ruan Ackermann, 21 Marcel Theunissen, 22 Dewaldt Duvenage, 23 Clinton Swart.

Leinster: 15 Jimmy O’Brien, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Ciarán Frawley, 11 Jordan Larmour, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Luke McGrath (captain), 8 James Culhane, 7 Scott Penny, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Brian Deeny, 4 Diarmuid Mangan, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Gus McCarthy, 1 Jack Boyle.
Replacements: 16 John McKee, 17 Paddy McCarthy, 18 Andrew Sparrow, 19 Max Deegan, 20 Will Connors, 21 Fintan Gunne, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Hugh Cooney.

Glasgow Warriors: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Kyle Rowe, 13 Stafford McDowall (captain), 12 Kerr Yule, 11 Ollie Smith, 10 Dan Lancaster, 9 George Horne, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Matt Fagerson, 5 Alex Samuel, 4 Jare Oguntibeju, 3 Fin Richardson, 2 Johnny Matthews, 1 Jamie Bhatti.
Replacements: 16 Gregor Hiddleston, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Scott Cummings, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 Euan Ferrie, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Adam Hastings.

Sharks: 15 Yaw Penxe, 14 Edwill van der Merwe, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Francois Venter, 11 Christie Grobbelaar, 10 Jaden Hendrikse, 9 Ross Braude, 8 Vincent Tshituka (captain), 7 Manu Tshituka, 6 Phepsi Buthelezi, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Deon Slabbert, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Fez Mbatha, 1 Simphiwe Matanzima.
Replacements: 16 Eduan Swart, 17 Dian Bleuler, 18 Lee-Marvin Mazibuko, 19 Bathobele Hlekani, 20 Nick Hatton, 21 Jean Smith, 22 Jurenzo Julius, 23 Hakeem Kunene.

Ulster: 15 Michael Lowry, 14 Zac Ward, 13 James Hume, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Jack Murphy, 9 Nathan Doak, 8 David McCann, 7 Nick Timoney, 6 Cormac Izuchukwu, 5 Harry Sheridan, 4 Iain Henderson (captain), 3 Tom O’Toole, 2 Rob Herring, 1 Callum Reid.
Replacements: 16 Tom Stewart, 17 Sam Crean, 18 Scott Wilson, 19 Matthew Dalton, 20 Juarno Augustus, 21 Conor McKee, 22 Jake Flannery, 23 Ben Carson.

Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien (co-captain), 14 Rio Dyer, 13 Joe Westwood, 12 Aneurin Owen, 11 Jared Rosser, 10 Tinus de Beer, 9 Rhodri Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Harrison Keddie, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Ben Carter (co-captain), 4 Matthew Screech, 3 Rob Hunt, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Wyn Jones.
Replacements: 16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Rodrigo Martinez, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Levi Douglas, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Che Hope, 22 Fine Inisi, 23 Huw Anderson.

Glasgow the big movers 

Posted 22 Sep 21h53

Most of the handicaps are stable with some 1 point moves around but Glasgow are out from -12.5 to -20.5 on the back of Sharks team news - this was highlighted by The Admiral in the forum 

URC Week 1 - early handicaps 

Posted 22 Sep 12h12

The bookies are out early 

Stormers v Leinster – Stormers +7.5
Glasgow Warriors v Sharks – Glasgow -12.5
Ulster v Dragons – Ulster -15.5
Bulls v Ospreys – Bulls -18.5
Zebre v Edinburgh – Zebre +7.5
Scarlets v Munster – Scarlets +4.5
Cardiff v Lions – Cardiff -6.5
Connacht v Benetton – Connacht -7.5

Outright Winner Betting 

Posted 21 Sep

Leinster are short priced favourites to defend their title and prices are on offer at BETXCHANGE 

Leinster 11/20
Blue Bulls 9/2
The Sharks 8/1
Munster 41/5
Stormers 14/1
Glasgow Warriors 14/1
Connacht Rugby 65/1
Ulster Rugby 66/1
Edinburgh Rugby 66/1
Lions 98/1
114/1 and better the balance 

Round 1 Fixtures

I am not going to try and handicap the week 1 fixtures, lets see what the bookies come up with.

Stormers v Leinster – Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town
Kick-off: Friday 26 Sept, 19:00 SAST

Ulster v Dragons – Ravenhill Stadium, Belfast
Kick-off: Friday 26 Sept, 21:05 SAST

Glasgow Warriors v Sharks – Scotstoun Stadium, Glasgow
Kick-off: Friday 26 Sept, 21:05 SAST

Bulls v Ospreys – Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 14:00 SAST

Zebre Parma v Edinburgh – Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi, Parma
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 16:05 SAST

Scarlets v Munster – Parc y Scarlets, Llanelli
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 18:30 SAST

Connacht v Benetton – The Sportsground, Galway
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 20:45 SAST

Cardiff v Lions – Cardiff Arms Park, Cardiff
Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sept, 20:45 SAST