The Investec Champions Cup continues this weekend with action taking place from the 17^th to the 19^th of January. In this blog Brent Graham considers early thoughts and odds and ultimately provides a brief preview and his bet on each game.

 

 

 

CLICK HERE to get Brent’s Free Betting Newsletter focusing mainly on rugby.

 

Our regular rugby punters have their say in our forum, all welcome

 

Click here for my video talking through the week 4 permutations and handicaps

 

SALE v TOULON 

Posted 19 Jan 18h15

It hasn't been a great day for me and while I have not given up on my biggest play Saracens it certainly looks unlikely. 

Sale are currently -5.5 and need a bonus point for Challenge Cup and could finish as high as 3rd with a bonus point win. 

Toulon will top the group but I think they could improve their seeding overtaking Northampton with a win - this structure has had me a bit baffled though so don't bank on that. 

Total points are 47.5. 

I am going to shut up shop unless Sarries make an amazing comeback. 

Look out for the URC blog on Monday morning 

 

TOULOUSE v LEICESTER 

Posted 19 Jan 13h58 

This is an interesting game in that Toulouse only have to avoid defeat to finish 2nd and they cannot finish 1st. Leicester need to win to finish 2nd but cannot do worse than 3rd. 

It is not quite a dead rubber and Leicester have named a strong team. 

The handicap is -21.5 Toulouse and I think that a strong Leicester team can beat that. 

The points line is 62.5 and that seems quite high as I would not be surprised if this turns into an arm wrestle and there seems to be a chance of light rain. 

I am going to settle on a Leicester handicap play. 

 

BET: 3 units Leicester +22.5 t 0.87/1 at Betxchange 

 

SARACENS v CASTRES

Posted 19 Jan 09h50 

Saracens cannot top the log but a win puts them above Munster into 2nd. Castres have qualified for the last 16 and could in theory finish 2nd but in reality have nothing to play for and have selected a second string side. 

A handicap of -29.5 sounds like a lot but in this case I don't think it is high enough, I am expecting Saracens to absolutely destroy this Castres team. 

The points line is 61.5 and I may well return with another bet on this one. 

Heading out now and will be back with the last 2 games later. 

 

BET: 5 units Saracens -29.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets

 

BORDEAUX v SHARKS 

Posted 18 Jan 09h42 

The full preview available here 

 

BET: 3 units Bordeaux over 3.5 1st half tries at 5/4 at Pokerbet 

 

GOOD MORNING TO EVERYONE BUT THE BOOKIES 

Posted 19 Jan 08h57

Morning everyone hope your punting day went well yesterday. 

As those who get my newsletter know it was a decent one for me with Bulls over 5.5 tries (and a cricket double) landing. My biggest bet ended up being Racing 92 over 4.5 tries and I really had to sweat for that one but it landed with around 5 minutes to go. Had that lost I would of been back square but am nicely up heading into Sunday. 

4 more games to look at and I will be looking at teams, weather and betting and will be back shortly. 

 

 

HARLEQUINS v GLASGOW 

Posted 18 Jan 20h02

This game opened Quins -1.5 went to -4.5 and is back to -1.5.

I am expecting a close game and was considering either team by 7 or less but in the end am going over 6.5 tries at 8/10. 

Both of these sides like to entertain and I suspect we could be in for a classic. 

The points line is 45.5. 

I am exhausted but will be back in the morning to look at tomorrows games. 

Overall a decent day for me thanks to Bulls tries but I need Racing overs to arrive tonight. 

 

BET: 3 units over 6.5 tries at 8/10 at Sportingbet 

 

BENETTON v LA ROCHELLE 

Posted 18 Jan 13h53

The cap has been quiet stable Benetton +10 all week and the points line is 48.5. I don't have a firm view here but expect La Rochelle to be too strong and if pushed would back them to beat the cap. 

 

BET: No bet for me but if pushed La Rochelle -9.5 

 

LEINSTER v BATH 

Posted 18 Jan 13h48 

This handicap opened -14.5 and then moved to -17.5 before support for Bath saw it back to -15.5. 

The points line here is 54.5 and I am going to stick to a strategy that has served me well in recent times and that is going under on Leinster team opponents points. They have only conceded over 14 points once in their last 11 matches and not in their last 5. 

 

BET: 4 units Bath under 18.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet 

 

Challenge Cup: LIONS v DRAGONS 

Posted 18 Jan 13h26

The winner will make it to the last 16. The Dragons look a bit stretched and are +19.5 with the bookies. The points line is 59.5 and conditions may be a bit soft after alot of rain this week. The Lions should be too strong here and I am backing them to score at last 6 tries. 

 

BET: 4 units Lions over 5.5 tries at 8/10 at Sportingbet 

 

NORTHAMPTON v MUNSTER 

Posted 18 Jan 12h58 

Northampton cost me last week when they blew a 21-0 lead away to SF but I am expecting them to bounce back with a strong home win over a Munster side that hasn't impressed me this season (ok the win over Sarries was a good one) and I am backing the home side to beat a handicap that has been stable all week. 

The points line is 53.5 

 

BET: 3 units Saints -6.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets

 

CLERMONT v BRISTOL

Posted 18 Jan 12h46 

This handicap has edged out from -12.5 Clermont to -13.5 and even -14.5 in places. 

The points line is also on the march to 55.5 from 53.5 and I agree with the money in both cases. 

I already have Clermont minus in the newsletter acca and won't get further involved on the handicap. 

I don't see penalties in this game and prefer 8/10 over 7.5 tries to the over 55.5 on offer which would require 8 fully converted tries (if no penalties) to arrive.

 

BET: 4 units over 7.5 tries at 8/10 at Sportingbet  (incorrectly said over 8.5 originally) 

 

RACING 92 v STORMERS 

Posted 18 Jan 11h17

This match has its own preview which goes into more detail but I have taken Racin over 4.5 tries at 1/1 (now 9/10) 

 

BET: 6 units Racing over 4.5 tries at 9/10 at Pokerbet 

 

A MASSIVE DAY OF RUGBY AHEAD 

Posted 18 Jan 08h35 

I am still playing last nights game over in my head. The Exeter unders looked dead with 17 1st half points and in the end it loses to a soft try in the 79th. 

There is so much rugby (and sporting action) to look forward to this week and I am workin on a few acca's - THE NEWSLETTER will be sent out in the next couple of hours so join me here if you are not already on board. 

 

BULLS v STADE FRANCAIS 

Full preview here 

 

BET: 7 units Bulls over 5.5 tries at 9/10 at Pokerbet 

 

TEAMS ARE OUT 

Posted 17 Jan 18h22

Teams are out and we have all the lines and are starting to get some points as well. 

Note that the games involving the Bulls, Stormers and Sharks have their own previews posted in our Euro Rugby section 

 

ULSTER v EXETER 

Posted 17 Jan 13h53

The teams are out and as expected Exeter have thrown in the towel on this competition. The handicap has moved from -13.5 to -17.5 and I am leaning Ulster. 

The points line is 57.5 and while this may get loose there is 95% humidity and cold conditions. 

I think the play here is Exeter unders with the line at 20.5. 

 

BET: 4 units Exeter under 20.5 points at 20/21 at Pokerbet 

 

THE HANDICAP LIVE FRIDAY AT 16H00 

Posted Jan 17 10h49

We are talking Champions Cup betting live at 16h00 and you can set a reminder for the show here

Not much to report on the betting front other than Sale out to -4.5 on the back of Toulon injury news. 

 

HURRY UP AND WAIT! 

Posted 16 Jan 12h03

The markets are pretty stable although Tououse now -21.5 from -18.5.

I had expected a hectic week but bookmakers have witheld prices on games where team selections are up in the air and I certainly don't blame for that. 

For that reason our weekly rugby betting show THE HANDICAP will be live on Friday at 16h00, hopefully by then markets have digested team news and we have handicaps and perhaps even a few points lines. 

I will post a link to the show on Friday morning but if you are not subscribed to our You Tube Channel then click here 

 

ANOTHER CAP & SOME SMALL MOVES 

Posted 14 Jan 15h19

Toulouse v Leicester is -18.5 (I went -26.5) and of those already priced Leinster have gone to -17.5 from -14.5 (close to my -18.5) and Quins are -3.5 from -1.5 also edging towards my -4.5. 

The others look pretty stable. 

 

6 EARLY HANDICAPS

Posted 13 Jan 15h47

Bookmakers are weary about this weekend (I don’t blame them) and only 6 handicaps are out (in brackets from Betxchange)

Northampton Saints -8.5 (-7.5) vs. Munster Rugby

ASM Clermont Auvergne -14.5 (-11.5) vs. Bristol Bears

Benetton Rugby +14.5 (+8.5) vs. Stade Rochelais

Leinster Rugby -18.5 (-14.5) vs. Bath Rugby

Harlequins -4.5 (-1.5) vs. Glasgow Warriors

Sale Sharks +9.5 (-0.5) vs. RC Toulon

Some big differences with mine

The biggest is Toulon and given they may need to win the game to finish top I am surprised to see Sale favourite.

 

SUMMARY OF MY HANDICAPS

Posted 13 Jan 09h56

Ulster Rugby -17.5 vs. Exeter Chiefs

Vodacom Bulls -8.5 vs. Stade Francais Paris

Northampton Saints -8.5 vs. Munster Rugby

ASM Clermont Auvergne -14.5 vs. Bristol Bears

Benetton Rugby +14.5 vs. Stade Rochelais

Leinster Rugby -18.5 vs. Bath Rugby

Harlequins -4.5 vs. Glasgow Warriors

Racing 92 -15.5 vs. DHL Stormers

Union Bordeaux-Bègles -28.5 vs. Hollywoodbets Sharks

Saracens -25.5 vs. Castres Olympique

Stade Toulousain -26.5 vs. Leicester Tigers

Sale Sharks +9.5 vs. RC Toulon

 

Lets wait and see what the bookies do. I expect some big differences this week. 

 

POOL 1 FIXTURES

 

Ulster Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs - Fri, 17 Jan 2025, 22:00

• Winner likely to finish 5^th and play in Challenge Cup

• Unlikely Exeter will go full strength, Ulster might

• Next week Ulster at home to Zebre, Exeter at home to Saracens

My Handicap: Ulster -17.5

 

Bordeaux-Bègles vs. Hollywoodbets Sharks - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 15:00

• Bordeaux needs 5 points to top the table

• Sharks may qualify even with a loss

• Sharks away to Cardiff next week, Bordeaux at home to Lyon

• Sharks likely to field B team

• Bordeaux may step off gas once bonus point bagged

My Handicap: Bordeaux -28.5

 

Stade Toulousain vs. Leicester Tigers - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Toulouse will know whether they can still finish top by kick-off

• Leicester safe in 3rd and unlikely to improve (must win) so expect major changes

• Next week Toulouse at home to Montpellier, Leicester away to Gloucester

My Handicap: Toulouse -26.5

 

POOL 2 FIXTURES

 

ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Bristol Bears - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Winner likely to progress, possibly even in 3^rd

• Next week Clermont away to Pau, Bristol at home to Newcastle

• I suspect Bristol will rest players for league game

My Handicap: Clermont -14.5

 

Benetton Rugby vs. Stade Rochelais - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 19:30

• Tricky to know what teams will be thinking

• La Rochelle away to Toulon next week and may feel they can rest players and still win

• Benetton away to Ospreys next week

• Benetton will likely go full strength, I think La Rochelle rest a few

My Handicap: Benetton +14.5

 

Leinster Rugby vs. Bath Rugby - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 19:30

• Kick off at same time as La Rochelle match

• Leinster Stormers at home next week, Bath Sale way

• Suspect Bath rest players, likely to qualify even with a loss

• Leinster may also rest players, look for RG Snyman to start

My Handicap: Leinster -18.5

 

POOL 3 FIXTURES

 

Vodacom Bulls vs. Stade Francais - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 15:00

• Bulls cannot progress, could in theory make Challenge Cup

• Will Bulls risk fielding weak side at home

• Stade Francais could make it with bonus point win, but do they want to?

• This game should have plenty of points

My Handicap: Bulls -18.5

 

Northampton Saints vs. Munster Rugby – Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Loser likely to finish 3^rd, winner strong chance of topping the log

• Next week Munster away to Dragons, Northampton away to Harlequins

• Suspect Munster realise finishing top is unlikely and may settle for 3^rd and rest a few

My Handicap: Saints -8.5

 

Saracens vs. Castres Olympique - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Saracens will know whether they can top the log

• Next week Saracens away to Exeter, Castres away to Racing

• Expect Saracens to go full strength

• Castres likely to settle for 4^th (unlikely they get overtaken) and my rest

My Handicap: Saracens -25.5

 

POOL 4 FIXTURES

 

Harlequins vs. Glasgow Warriors - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 22:00

• Warriors can top the table but likely have to win big

• Harlequins likely to qualify but if Sale beat Toulon they could go out

• Quins at home to Saints next week, Warriors at home to Connacht

• Suspect both teams go full strength

My Handicap: Harlequins -4.5

 

Racing 92 vs. DHL Stormers - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 22:00

• Winner has a strong chance of going through, would need 1 of either Quins or Sale to lose

• Racing at home to Castres next week, Stormers away to Leinster

• Both teams could rest or go full strength – tough one

My Handicap: Racing -15.5

 

Sale Sharks vs. RC Toulon - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 19:30

• Toulon will know what is needed to finish top, cannot finish worse than 2^nd

• Sale will likely have to win but if Quins lose may get through with 1 or 2 bonus points

• Sale at home to Bath next week, Toulon at home to La Rochelle

My Handicap: Sale +9.5