After taking maximum points from their first two United Rugby Championship matches the Lions head off on tour and their first assignment sees them take on the Dragon in Newport on Sunday
Dragons v Lions, Sunday 13th October, Newport, KO 15:30 (South African time)
Referee: Fillipo Russo (Italy)
Assistant Referees: Adam Jones (Wales), Rhys Jones (Wales)
TMO: Stefano Penne (Italy)
Weather Forecast - Newport
Dragons:
The Dragons have played 3 matches so far, winning 1 and losing 2 and they have earned 6 log points.
Round 3 saw the Dragons host the Sharks, they started as 7.5 point underdogs on the main handicap line but led 22-5 at one stage in the first half before eventually going down 33-30 right at the death. The Dragons scored 4 tries (and conceded 5) to secure a couple of log points.
The Dragons began by edging out the Ospreys (23-21) on a Welsh derby at this venue but in Round 2 an ultra tough trip to Leinster saw them beaten 34-6.
The Lions beat the Dragons 49-24 in Joburg in Round 7 last season and when hosting SA sides in 2023/24 the Dragons lost to the Bulls (31-10) in Round 12 and they went down (44-21) to the Stormers in Round 16.
In the outright betting to win the URC title the Dragons are 550/1 rank outsiders with BoyleSports.
Lions:
With two bonus point wins from two matches the Lions finished Round 3 in sixth position, the best placed of the South Africa sides who are also on tour right now.
A Round 3 clash with Edinburgh at Ellis Park saw the Lions dish out a 55-21 hiding and virtually all the damage was done in the first half with the Lions scoring 7 (of their 8) tries to take a 48-0 lead into the break. Rabz Maxwane scored 3 tries and Edwill van der Merwe crossed twice.
The Lions began their URC campaign at home to Ulster in Round 2, they were priced up as 6.5 point favourites and they came out on top 35-22, scoring 5 tries in total.
After this the Lions will visit Zebre and then Leinster
In the outright betting the Lions are 34/1 shots to win the URC title with BoyleSports , almost half their pre-tournament price.
Team News
Dragons: 15 Angus O’Brien, 14 Rio Dyer, 13 Joe Westwood, 12 Aneurin Owen, 11 Jared Rosser, 10 Lloyd Evans, 9 Rhodri Williams, 8 Taine Basham, 7 Harri Keddie, 6 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 5 Matthew Screech, 4 Ben Carter (c), 3 Leon Brown, 2 Brodie Coghlan, 1 Rodrigo Martinez
Replacements: 16 Oli Burrows, 17 Cameron Jones, 18 Chris Coleman, 19 Ryan Woodman, 20 Dan Lydiate, 21 Dane Blacker, 22 Will Reed, 23 Ewan Rosser
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Rabz Maxwane, 13 Erich Cronje, 12 Rynhardt Jonker, 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Nico Steyn, 9 Morné van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn (captain), 7 Jarod Cairns, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Darrien Landsberg, 4 Reinhard Nothnagel, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 Franco Marais, 1 Juan Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 PJ Botha, 17 Heiko Pohlmann, 18 Conraad van Vuuren, 19 Ruben Schoeman, 20 Renzo du Plessis, 21 Sanele Nohamba, 22 Marius Louw, 23 Henco van Wyk
The Betting,
Dragons +8.5 points at 9/10
Lions -8.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 11h01 13 October
This handicap has been pretty stable all week at Lions -8.5.
My attention though is on the points line where I fancy over 50.5.
Conditions should be perfect and both of these sides enjoy playing at a fast pace. This bet would have arrived in the last 4 head to head meetings between the sides.
Most bookies have 52.5 but there is still some 50.5 on offer.
BET: 5 units Total Points over 50.5 at 9/10 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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