The first of the European Champions Cup semi finals comes from Croke Park, Dublin on Saturday where outright tournament favourites Leinster clash with Northampton Saints.
Leinster v Northampton Saints, Saturday 4th May, Dublin, KO 17:30 (South African time)
Referee: Mathieu Raynal (France)
Assistant referees: Pierre Brousset (France), Luc Ramos (France)
TMO: Thomas Charabas (France)
Weather Forecast – Dublin
Leinster:
Leinster took revenge on La Rochelle who had beaten them in the 2 previous finals with a 40-13 home win in the quarter finals. They led 23-13 at half time and ran in 5 tries in total including a brace for James Lowe.
A Round of 16 clash with Leicester Tigers in Dublin saw Leinster come out on top 36-22.
Leinster topped their pool with 4 wins from 4 with the Stormers, La Rochelle and Leicester the other sides to qualify.
Leinster are second in the URC standings with a record of 11 wins and 4 defeats. They left their big guns at home for a 2 match tour of South Africa and lost to the Lions and the Stormers and they are now 4 points behind Glasgow Warriors in that competition.
In the outright betting to win the Champions Cup Leinster are 0.92/1 favourites with BoyleSports
Northampton Saints:
Northampton hosted an understrength Bulls side in the quarter finals and they scored all of 9 tries, conceding 3 in a 59-22 victory (28-22 half time).
The Saints saw off Munster 24-14 in a Round of 16 home fixture 24-14, scoring 4 tries to 2.
In the pool stage the Saints were foot perfect, winning all 4 of their matches and scoring 18 tries in total. They also came up against Munster in that pool and won 26-23 in Limerick whilst other results included wins at Glasgow Warriors (28-19) and at home to Toulon (22-19) and Aviron Bayonnais (61-14).
The Saints currently top the Gallagher Premiership standings with a record of 11 wins and 5 defeats and they are 4 points clear of second placed Saracens.
In the outright betting to win the Champions Cup the Saints are 13/1 shots with BoyleSports
Team News
Leinster: 15 Ciarán Frawley, 14 Jordan Larmour, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Jamie Osborne, 11 James Lowe, 10 Ross Byrne, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 Joe McCarthy, 4 Ross Molony, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porte
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Michael Ala’alatoa, 19 Jason Jenkins, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Jimmy O’Brien
Northampton Saints: 15 George Furbank, 14 James Ramm, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 George Hendy, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Juarno Augustus, 7 Sam Graham, 6 Courtney Lawes (c), 5 Alex Coles, 4 Alex Moon, 3 Trevor Davison, 2 Curtis Langdon, 1 Alex Walle
Replacements: 16 Sam Matavesi, 17 Emmanuel Iyogun, 18 Elliot Millar Mills, 19 Temo Mayanavanua, 20 Angus Scott-Young, 21 Tom James, 22 Tom Litchfield, 23 Tom Seabrook
The Betting
Leinster -13.5 points at 9/10
Northampton Saints +13.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
This handicap has been stable all week at Leinster -13.5.
One theory that has served me well over the year is not to fear the larger minus in knock out games where the chasing team don’t have a losing bnus point to focus on the the favourites assuming they hit the front are happy to accumulate points rather than just chase tries.
Looking at Leinsters playoff winning margins in 2023 and 2024 to date
2023
R16 a 15 point win at home to Ulster
QF a 31 point win at home to Leicester
SF a 19 point win at home to Toulouse
2024
R16 a 14 point win at home to Leicester
QF a 27 point win at home to La Rochelle
SF ????
Leinster have a fresh squad thanks to sending their sacrificial lambs into South Africa in the URC and this handicap would have arrived in their last 5 Champions league knock out victories (they lost the finals to La Rochelle in 2023 and 2024).
The Saints are playing great rugby but I can see them getting blown away here in front of a packed Croke Park.
BET: 5 units Leinster -13.5 at 10/11 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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