NRL 2020

Quill wrote: Bet 1: Roosters -25.5 @1.90
Bet 2: Team Total Roosters Over 34.5 points @1.89
Bet 3: To score two or more tries - Brett Morris @2.80
Bet 4: Anytime tryscorers - B Morris + J Morris @2.50
Bet 5: Anytime tryscorers - B Morris + Tedesco @2.30

Wow, Brett Morris' last minute try landed me those two beautiful bets, 4 and 5, on top of my main ones, 1 and 2

Cronulla Sharks vs NQ Cowboys

Both teams have some important players missing. The Sharks are at the edge of the play-off zone, while the Cowboys lose match after match, although they do keep it tight and make it difficult for the opposition many times. They do have a leaky defence.

The Sharks matches are high scoring in general, so I'll go for the overs.

Bet 1: Over 42.5 @1.85
Bet 2: Sharks Team Total Over 24.5 @1.80
Bet 3: Sharks win & Over 37.5 points @1.90

Panthers over 26,5 points

Also sticking with a bet that has been doing well for me.

Panthers over 2.5 1st half tries @2.5

I like those two bets, Zambusta.

My bets are:

Bet 1: Panthers -10.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Total Team Points - Panthers over 24.5 @1.80
Bet 3: Total Team Points - Tigers Under 14.5 @1.85
Bet 4: Total Team tries - Panthers over 4.5 @1.95

Interesting statistics, the Panthers have conceded 12 points in each of their last 4 matches and in 6 of their last 9. The other matches their opposition scored 10, 14 and 24 (in a 56-24 win by the Panthers).

The Storm have all three of their playmakers back and will not have enjoyed the duck last week. Manly's season is pretty much over and all the apologising about last week won't be enough of an incentive. I also reckon "The Fox" will enjoy the magic men being back and we will see some tries from him.

Melbourne over 28,5 points
Melbourne 1st half over 12,5 points
Josh-Addo Carr first / last try
Josh-Addo Carr to score 2 or more tries

Bet 1: Storm -14 @1.90
Bet 2: Storm over 28.5 points @1.98

Same bets for the Canberra Raiders game.

Similar situation, playing the rock bottom team, no hopes for this season, they probably cannot wait to get out of their misery.

Bet 1: Raiders -16.5 @1.92
Bet 2: Raiders over 28.5 points @1.81
Bet 3: Raiders 1st Half Over 12.5 points @1.90

Wow! "The Fox" left it to the dying seconds to bring home bets!

Pity Smith's kicking was so off tonight, it would have been much less stressful.

Awesome stuff Zam and Quil!!!

Panthers -22.5 @1.91

Quill wrote: Panthers -22.5 @1.91

Taken the same

Also Billy Kikau anytime @ 2.75

I'm taking the Knights to bounce back after their atrocious showing last week against the Warriors.
Also, because the weather is a bit wet, there is some rain about in the south-eastern part of Straya, I'll take some unders.

Bet 1: Knights -1.5 @1.76
Bet 2: Under 38.5 points @1.90.

Nothing major for me here. Would have lumped on Sharks if Shaun Johnson was available.

Cant believe Kikau didn't score yesterday!

Simarly nothing major here either

Sharks over 17.5 @ 2
Few beers Sharks 13+ @ 6.10

In the second match of the evening, I'm taking the Storm to beat the Bunnies.
Gagai has been ruled out for the Rabbitohs, and along with Latrell Mitchell, these are two huge outs for them.

Bet: Storm -4.5 @1.93

Took some Storm win @ 2.40 when they were 8-0 down

If they don't get up will leave rest of games alone, with exception of Warriors +8 @ 1.91 & smalls to win @ 3.25 tomorrow.
With the Sharks losing, the door opens a wee bit more for them to get in the 8.

Well done on that HT/FT bet in the Bunnies/Storm game Couch!!!

Manly Sea Eagles vs Wests Tigers

Both teams have performed poorly this season and their play-off chances have been reduced to mathematical ones.
Their defences are poor, so with nothing much left to play for, other than results to miraculously turn their way, I'll take an over.

Bet: Over 42.5 @2.00

Eels scoring over 22 points 1 out of last 8 games
Warriors conceding over 22 points 1 out of last 8 games

Eels under 22,5 points @1.91

Really unlucky here. Two tries leaked during that ridiculous sin binning in the first half...I see twitter blowing up with people complaining about the reffing. The Eels seem to get special treatment just like in the Storm game a few weeks back. Warriors have tremendous heart. Eels will be crunched by the top teams going forward.

Cowboys Vs Dragons

Both teams to score 16 points or more @2

Zambusta wrote: Really unlucky here. Two tries leaked during that ridiculous sin binning in the first half...I see twitter blowing up with people complaining about the reffing. The Eels seem to get special treatment just like in the Storm game a few weeks back. Warriors have tremendous heart. Eels will be crunched by the top teams going forward.

Agreed, desperately unlucky here mate. That yellow card was a joke!
Warriors so plucky though - those 2 first half tries were outrageous

Cowboys look tired and out of ideas.
Dragons should have scored more in the first half.

In Play:
Dragons -6.5
Dragons over 23.5

I cannot believe we are getting this price for the Eels to go to Penrith and face the Panthers at home.
I have taken a big chunk!

Penrith -6,5 @1.9

I will also be keeping an eye out for Eels unders again...especially for the first half.

I have also added:
Panthers/Panthers HT/FT @1.9

Both at Sunbet

Two early bets for me, I have taken them Sunday night :

Panthers x Roosters @1.67
Roosters -13 @1.60

The Eels are not up to par the last few weeks, their offense is not good, some players are tired (Sivo, Gutherson), the hooker Reed Mahoney is injured, the Panthers played last Thursday against the Broncos so they have had more than a week to prepare for the game, as the Eels played Sunday afternoon. 5 day turnaround vs 8 day turnaround. At this time of the season, it plays.Panthers are injury free because Staines and Ye'o are back.

For the Roosters, they are complete, at the beginning only Kalyn Ponga should be at rest, the coach also put Mitch Barnett, the best forward, at rest. The whole Chooks are for me the best team in the NRL, and they have found all their big guys.

Super League Rugby

Hull Fc vs Wakefield Trinity
Bet : Wakefield +8 @1.91

Andy Last has named his 21-man squad for Thursday’s game against Wakefield Trinity at the Totally Wicked Stadium. Last has made seven changes to the squad that was named ahead of last week’s game against Warrington, with eleven members of the first-team missing out this week as the Black & Whites prepare for two games in a four day period.

Jamie Shaul, Carlos Tuimavave, Manu Ma’u and Jordan Johnstone all drop-out through injury, while Bureta Faraimo and Josh Griffin also aren’t risked with minor knocks. Ligi Sao will serve his one match suspension, with Scott Taylor, Gareth Ellis, Marc Sneyd and Josh Jones all still sidelined Ratu Naulago returns to the squad having missed out last week after failing a Head Injury Assessment against Huddersfield, while Joe Cator returns from his one-match suspension. Connor Wynne, Andre Savelio, Lewis Bienek and Jude Ferreira are all called into the 21-man squad, while Masi Matongo also makes his return from a shoulder injury.

Wakefield also has missings, but they are long-term missings. This weekend, they have the return of two leaders : Ben Jones Bishop and Liam Kay. In the last four games, it was difficult for them to get results because they played twice the Catalans, Wigan and Warrington, you add St-Helens and they are the best teams of the competition. I think this is a must-win for Wakefield, the manager Chris Chester could have some problems regarding to the fans in case of bad results against this very young team of Hull FC. This is a unic opportunity to regain success for Wakefield. I therefore find the handicap a bit high.

Welcome to the NRL forum The Thirteen!

From a punting perspective I am relatively new to NRL and only got into it this year. I follow a lot of the news on nrl.com and have a good feel for the teams, so it has been pretty successful for me so far.

I appreciate input from guys like Quill, BB and Couch to help inform my decisions, so am delighted to have another brain here giving a fresh perspective and insight on the games.

West Tigers vs Rabbitohs
Bet : Rabbitohs Over 24.5 pts

The West Tigers season is almost over. It would need a miracle for them to make the Top 8: win their remaining 3 games, and hope the Cronulla Sharks collapse. Last week the Rabbitohs saw their winning streak come to an end, losing 22-16 to the Storm. I liked their performance in attack, despite the missings of Dane Gagai and Alex Johnston, who recently extended at the club as he was courted by the Melbourne Storm. The Rabbitohs are in a position that I think is dangerous, 7th, they can climb a place or two for them before the Finals. Must-win for them. The Bunnies regain Queensland Origin star Dane Gagai (hamstring) from injury in place of Jaxson Paulo. That will help add experience to a back line trying to adjust to life without superstar fullback Latrell Mitchell, but Rabbitohs's backline is full of talent. Against teams like the West Tigers, ranked outside the Top 8, the Rabbitohs have no problem: they scored 56 pts against Manly, 31 at the Cowboys, 32 against the Dragons. With a goalscorer like Adam Reynolds and the West Tigers' potentially catastrophic defense (32,30,38,28,44,26,26, points conceded in the last few games), I think the Rabbitohs will score at least 30 points. Weather ok at Bankvest Stadium.

Yes I really like the Bunnies tomorrow. Have added Rabbitohs HT/FT @ 8/10 and like the overs play as well

What do you guys think about a combo bet of Panthers (-4.5) v Eels and over 36.5 pts at 15/8 (available on Betfair)?

36.5 seems like a very low points total

Dizzle wrote: What do you guys think about a combo bet of Panthers (-4.5) v Eels and over 36.5 pts at 15/8 (available on Betfair)?

36.5 seems like a very low points total

Overs in that same game or the Bunnies one? I would not go overs in the Eels & Panthers - Parramatta have zero offensive game atm

I’m agree with couch. It’s better to take Panthers over points rather than over points total

Couch Critic wrote: Yes I really like the Bunnies tomorrow. Have added Rabbitohs HT/FT @ 8/10 and like the overs play as well

Joey Leilua and Moses Mbye are OUT for Tigers. I add Rabbitohs win and score more than 4,5 tries @2.20

The Thirteen wrote:

Couch Critic wrote: Yes I really like the Bunnies tomorrow. Have added Rabbitohs HT/FT @ 8/10 and like the overs play as well

Joey Leilua and Moses Mbye are OUT for Tigers. I add Rabbitohs win and score more than 4,5 tries @2.20

Not sure Mbye is a big out - especially as Doueihi is decent off the tee.
Irrespective like the Bunnies too.
Followed on over 24.5 points
Also Bunnies -8 @ 1.91

Cheers for the feedback earlier guys on the Penrith game.

I am going to take Hull Kingston Rovers +22 (against St Helens) @ 1.91.

They should be buzzing after beating Wigan away last week 34-18.

The also only lost 32-18 to St Helens when the sides met last month.

Hopefully 22 points is an adequate head start!

The Thirteen wrote:

Couch Critic wrote: Yes I really like the Bunnies tomorrow. Have added Rabbitohs HT/FT @ 8/10 and like the overs play as well

Joey Leilua and Moses Mbye are OUT for Tigers. I add Rabbitohs win and score more than 4,5 tries @2.20

Wow watching Johnson drop the ball a few metres from an open try line was brutal

Unlucky on that one! It would have topped off an already profitable morning.

Stressful at the end but ok with it. But Wakefield are very crap at this moment.

Panthers v Eels

Main bet Panthers HT/FT @ 1.83

Just cant see any other result when comparing the recent offensive form of each team

Also for interest following Couch with Crichton 1st try @ 12

When you open the panther's cage, you can't stop it. Total domination, never seen that in an NRL game this season. If we add the 4 tries failed attempts either by mistake or by the Bunker, the score could have been higher.

Congrats guys!

Additionals bet on Roosters vs Newcastle

I have already :
Panthers x Roosters
Roosters -13 @1.60

I add :

Luke Keary @2.70 ATS : he plays his 150th NRL game for the best five eight in the world
Roosters -2.5 tries handicap @1.70
EIther team to score 0 points ? Yes @8

I really only see one way out in this game

I'm taking the following on the Roosters, especially that the Knights have secured their play-off spot and are resting a couple of key players, while the Roosters are pushing to secure a top 4 spot.

Bet 1: Roosters over 5.5 tries @1.87
Bet 2: Roosters over 30.5 points @1.80
Bet 3: Roosters -19.5 @1.91

The Thirteen wrote: Additionals bet on Roosters vs Newcastle

I have already :
Panthers x Roosters
Roosters -13 @1.60

I add :

Luke Keary @2.70 ATS : he plays his 150th NRL game for the best five eight in the world
Roosters -2.5 tries handicap @1.70
EIther team to score 0 points ? Yes @8

I really only see one way out in this game

What a game, what a week !
Thank you Rabbitohs, Wakefield, Panthers and Roosters !

Congrats Quill for your bets.

13-09, Challenge Cup
Castleford vs Hull FC
Bet : Hull FC to win @1.80

Analysis

Both teams played this week: Castleford lost 10-12 to Warrington, a game where they defended a lot but they fell apart in the end. For his part, Hull won 26-23 against Wakefield. What's the difference in this match?

For Castleford, they were the best team possible. On the side of Hull FC, the coach had put players to rest in anticipation of this match of this Challenge Cup. I think it's the freshness that will tip the result on this match.

Castleford vs Warrington 09/10: Castleford Tigers: O'Brien; Olpherts, Foster, Shenton, Eden; Richardson, Mata'utia; Watts, McShane, Griffin, Holmes, McMeeken, Massey
Interchanges: Millington, Milner, Moors, O'Neill

Castleford vs Hull FC (21-man squad) 09/13:
Derrell Olpherts, Peter Mata'utia, Michael Shenton, Sosaia Feki, Jake Trueman, Danny Richardson, Liam Watts, Paul McShane, Grant Millington, Oliver Holmes, Mike McMeeken, Adam Milner, Nathan Massey, George Griffin, Cheyse Blair, James Clare, Jacques O'Neill, Tyla Hepi, Greg Eden, Calum Turner, Lewis Peachey.

If you count right, only three changes: return of Trueman, Blair and debut of Féki. All the other players played against Warrington.

At Hull FC, we did not take the same strategy. Andy Last has made eight changes to his Hull FC 21-man squad to face Castleford Tigers at the Totally Wicked Stadium on Sunday. The interim head coach was forced to field a weakened side against Wakefield Trinity on Thursday night, but he has been able to bring a host of senior players back into the side to face the Tigers. Jamie Shaul, Carlos Tuimavave, Josh Griffin, Manu Ma’u, Gareth Ellis, Jordan Johnstone and Ratu Naulago all missed Thursday’s Super League win but return to the side to provide fresh legs in Hull’s hunt to reach the quarter-finals. Ligi Sao also returns to the fold after serving a one-match ban on Thursday night. Josh Bowden, Masi Matongo, Lewis Bienek, Cameron Scott, Connor Wynne, Charlie Patterson-Lund, Ben McNamara and Jude Ferreira all drop out of the squad and will not travel on Sunday.

Hull FC enjoys beating Castleford in the Challenge Cup.
2019 (Round 6) Hull FC 28 Castleford 12
2017 (Quarter Final) Hull FC 32 Castleford 24
2015 (Round 6) Hull FC 40 Castleford 14
2004 (Round 5) Hull FC 26 Castleford 0

Interview with Daryl Powell, Castleford coach:

“We’re just not playing great at the minute, our concentration is a bit off, we’re up and down, we can’t piece a game together where we have any consistency. “I feel a bit nervous watching us. Since the resumption I feel our skills are a bit down and our general game is a bit down. We need a good performance on Sunday, but it will be tough to get.”

Having a dabble on the Warriors by 1-12 @ 3.75

The Thirteen wrote: 13-09, Challenge Cup
Castleford vs Hull FC
Bet : Hull FC to win @1.80

Analysis

Both teams played this week: Castleford lost 10-12 to Warrington, a game where they defended a lot but they fell apart in the end. For his part, Hull won 26-23 against Wakefield. What's the difference in this match?

For Castleford, they were the best team possible. On the side of Hull FC, the coach had put players to rest in anticipation of this match of this Challenge Cup. I think it's the freshness that will tip the result on this match.

Castleford vs Warrington 09/10: Castleford Tigers: O'Brien; Olpherts, Foster, Shenton, Eden; Richardson, Mata'utia; Watts, McShane, Griffin, Holmes, McMeeken, Massey
Interchanges: Millington, Milner, Moors, O'Neill

Castleford vs Hull FC (21-man squad) 09/13:
Derrell Olpherts, Peter Mata'utia, Michael Shenton, Sosaia Feki, Jake Trueman, Danny Richardson, Liam Watts, Paul McShane, Grant Millington, Oliver Holmes, Mike McMeeken, Adam Milner, Nathan Massey, George Griffin, Cheyse Blair, James Clare, Jacques O'Neill, Tyla Hepi, Greg Eden, Calum Turner, Lewis Peachey.

If you count right, only three changes: return of Trueman, Blair and debut of Féki. All the other players played against Warrington.

At Hull FC, we did not take the same strategy. Andy Last has made eight changes to his Hull FC 21-man squad to face Castleford Tigers at the Totally Wicked Stadium on Sunday. The interim head coach was forced to field a weakened side against Wakefield Trinity on Thursday night, but he has been able to bring a host of senior players back into the side to face the Tigers. Jamie Shaul, Carlos Tuimavave, Josh Griffin, Manu Ma’u, Gareth Ellis, Jordan Johnstone and Ratu Naulago all missed Thursday’s Super League win but return to the side to provide fresh legs in Hull’s hunt to reach the quarter-finals. Ligi Sao also returns to the fold after serving a one-match ban on Thursday night. Josh Bowden, Masi Matongo, Lewis Bienek, Cameron Scott, Connor Wynne, Charlie Patterson-Lund, Ben McNamara and Jude Ferreira all drop out of the squad and will not travel on Sunday.

Hull FC enjoys beating Castleford in the Challenge Cup.
2019 (Round 6) Hull FC 28 Castleford 12
2017 (Quarter Final) Hull FC 32 Castleford 24
2015 (Round 6) Hull FC 40 Castleford 14
2004 (Round 5) Hull FC 26 Castleford 0

Interview with Daryl Powell, Castleford coach:

“We’re just not playing great at the minute, our concentration is a bit off, we’re up and down, we can’t piece a game together where we have any consistency. “I feel a bit nervous watching us. Since the resumption I feel our skills are a bit down and our general game is a bit down. We need a good performance on Sunday, but it will be tough to get.”

Bye bye Castleford, season is over for you

Two early ones for me on Thursday's game:

1st Half First to 15 points Rabbitohs @2,15
1st Half First to 20 points Rabbitohs @3,30