South Africa go in search of the result they need to secure qualification from Pool B of the Rugby World Cup when they take on Tonga in Marseille on Sunday.
South Africa v Tonga, Sunday 1st October, Marseille, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU), Christophe Ridley (RFU)
TMO: Brett Cronan (RA)
Weather Forecast – Marseille
Pool B as it stands prior to the Scotland v Romania game on Saturday
South Africa:
The Boks paid the price for missed opportunities from the kicking tee when they went down to Ireland 13-8 at the Stade de France last weekend. South Africa started as marginal favourites but Ireland led 7-3 at half time before a try from Cheslin Kolbe put the Boks in front. Ireland then kicked their way back into the lead but a potential total of 11 points missed by the Boks brought about their undoing.
Earlier South Africa made wholesale changes to their line up for their second outing which came against Romania and they coasted to a 76-0 victory, scoring 12 ties including hat tricks for Mapimpi and Reinach.
South Africa's first pool match came against Scotland at this venue in Marseille. They started as favourites with the main handicap line settling at around 11.5 points and it was one for the minus backers as they came through with an 18-3 victory.
As far as the RWC outright betting is concerned, at the time of writing South Africa are trading at around 31/10 to win the tournament and 12/10 to reach the final with BoyleSports. Note those odds may well change as results earlier in the week are known.
Tonga:
Tonga have lost both their matches so far and they have failed to earn a log point. Last weekend they were beaten 45-17 by Scotland (who earned a bonus point), a game which Tonga had started as 24.5 point underdogs. Tonga were 10-7 up at one stage in the first half but things fell apart thereafter and Scotland ran in a total of 7 tries.
Tonga's first action came against Ireland and they crashed to a 59-16 defeat. That loss was greater than the main handicap line of 36.5 points and they conceded 8 tries in total.
Team News
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Grant Williams, 13 Canan Moodie, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handre Pollard, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Duane Vermeulen, 6 Siya Kolisi (Captain), 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Vincent Koch, 2 Deon Fourie, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Marco van Staden, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Kwagga Smith, 21 Jaden Hendrikse, 22 Jesse Kriel, 23 Manie Libbok
Tonga: 15 Salesi Piutau, 14 Fine Inisi, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Pita Ahki, 11 Anzelo Tuitavuki, 10 William Havili, 9 Augustine Pulu, 8 Semisi Paea, 7 Sione Talitui, 6 Tanginoa Halaifonua, 5 Sam Lousi, 4 Halaleva Fifita, 3 Ben Tameifuna (c), 2 Paula Ngauamo, 1 Siegfried Fisi’ihoi
Replacements: 16 Sam Moli, 17 Tau Koloamatangi, 18 Sosefo Apikotoa, 19 Adam Coleman, 20 Sione Vailanu, 21 Sonatane Takulua, 22 Patrick Pellegrini, 23 Afusipa Taumoepeau
The Betting
South Africa -41.5 points at 9/10
Tonga +41.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
This game has had me scratching my head. The Boks need the bonus point and I suspect that they will be targeting at least a 36 point win which should barring a mathematical miracle see them into the last 8 (Scotland would have to beat Ireland by 13 points while getting a bonus point and Ireland would also need a 4 try bonus point which would move Scotland above Ireland on points difference)
After some consideration I think the Boks will beat the handicap but I am going to diversify my betting interest in this one.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any outright or points plays on this game
BET: 4 units South Africa -41.5 at 1/1 at Betxchange (Using the Boost - 5k max, can’t use in multiples)
KWAGGA LAST IN
Couch Critic is writing for us in this RWC and he posts his plays on Sundays matches here – he has got his bookie to boost Kwagga to score the last try to 19/1 and I am happy to follow
BET: 0.5 units Kwagga Smith Last Try Scorer at a boosted 19/1 at at Boylesports*
*Read why I think Boylesports is a must have account for rugby punters & Click Here To Open An Account @Boylesports
POLLARD TO HIT GROUND RUNNING
All eyes will be on Pollard today and I can’t resist the 2/1 he scores over 17.5 points. This would likely require him scoring a try and hopefully he gets plenty of conversions.
BET: 2 units Pollard over 17.5 points at 2/1 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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