The final action in Round 4 of the Six Nations comes from Cardiff on Sunday where Wales and France are in action
Wales v France, Sunday 10th March, Cardiff, KO 17:00 (South African time)
Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant referees: Andrew Brace (Ireland), Damian Schneider (Argentina)
TMO: Ian Tempest (England)
Weather Forecast: Cardiff (only applicable if the roof is closed)
Wales
Wales have lost all 3 of their matches so far and although the scoreboard was close on the first two occasions they finished well beaten by Ireland in Dublin in Round 3, going down 31-7 (Handicap Wales +22.5 points).
In Round 2 they led England 14-5 at half time at Twickenham but they failed to score a point in the second half and they went down (16-14) to a late penalty. Wales were given around 11.5 points start on the handicap for that game and they had to settle for a losing bonus point.
Wales were 3.5 point underdogs for their opening round clash at home to Scotland. The first half was a disaster and they trailed 20-0 at half time. That deficit became 27-0 and then Wales conjured up an amazing fightback which came up agonizingly short as they lost the game 27-26. Their 4 tries saw them earn 2 bonus points.
In the 6 Nations last year Wales won just 1 game (against Italy) and they were beaten 41-28 by France in Paris in their final match. When teams met in Cardiff in 2022 France won 13-9.
Wales have 3 log points, the same number as Italy who they will face in Cardiff in the final round. In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports Wales are currently 6/10 to finish in the bottom 2 and and they can also be backed at around 31/10 to finish bottom.
Fixtures & Results: R1 Scotland (h) lost 27-26, R2 England (a) lost 16-14, R3 Ireland (a) lost 31-7, R4 France (h), R5 Italy (h)
France
Although Les Bleus started their Round 3 clash with Italy in Lille as 26.5 point favourites they were fortunate to hold on for a 13-13 draw. They were 10-0 up at half time and led 13-0 early in the second half. Jonathan Danty picked up a red card and Italy fought back from the 70th minute onwards and after hauling themselves level the Azzuri missed a golden opportunity for victory when they hit the post with a penalty at the death.
After a disappointing opening round defeat France put themselves on the board with a 20-16 win over Scotland at Murrayfield in Round 2. TIt was only in the 70th minute that they led for the first time when Louis Bielle-Barrey went over for a try duly converted by Ramos. That was not the end of the drama as the Scots thought they had scored a winning try at the death but the TMO ruled in favour of Les Bleus.
France took on Ireland in Marseille in Round 1 and although they were 4.5 point favourites on the handicap they finished well beaten, 38-17. Their cause wasn't helped with Paul Willemse sent off for picking up 2 yellows in the first half. Damian Penaud and Paul Gabrillagues scored tries for France either side of half time whilst Ireland ran in 5 tries and landed a bonus point.
France now have 6 log points and they finished Round 3 in fourth spot, 9 points shy of log leaders Ireland, 3 behind the Scots and 2 adrift of third placed England.
In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports France are currently 11/10 to finish in the top 2.
Fixtures & Results: R1 Ireland (h) lost 38-17, R2 Scotland (a) won 20-16, R3 Italy (h) drew 13-13, R4 Wales (a), R5 England (h)
Team News
Wales: 15 Cameron Winnett, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Joe Roberts, 12 Owen Watkin, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Sam Costelow, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Tommy Reffell, 6 Dafydd Jenkins (captain), 5 Adam Beard, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Ryan Elias, 1 Gareth Thomas
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Alex Mann, 20 Mackenzie Martin, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Ioan Lloyd, 23 Mason Grady
France: 15 Leo Barre, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gael Fickou, 12 Nicolas Depoortere, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Thomas Ramos, 9 Nolann Le Garrc, 8 Gregory Alldritt (captain), 7 Charles Ollivon, 6 Francois Cros, 5 Emmanuel Meafou, 4 Thibaud Flament, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Cyril Baille.
Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Sebastien Taofifenua, 18 Georges-Henri Colombe, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Alexandre Roumat, 21 Paul Boudehent, 22 Maxime Lucu, 23 Yoram Moefana
Head to Head (6 Nations Only)
2023 6N Paris France 41-28 Wales (Tries 5-4 )
2022 6N Cardiff Wales 9–13 France (Tries 0-1 )
2021 6N Paris France 32-30 Wales (Tries 4-3)
2020 6N Cardiff Wales 23-27 France (Tries 2-3)
2019 6N Paris France 19-24 Wales (Tries 2-3)
2018 6N Cardiff Wales 14-13 France (Tries 1-1)
2017 6N Paris France 20-18 Wales (Tries 2-0)
2016 6N Cardiff Wales 19-10 France (Tries 1-1)
The Betting
Wales +6.5 points at 9/10 widely available
France -6.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
WALES v FRANCE
This handicap has been stable at +6.5 Wales all week and the points line is currently set at 45.5. These sides have had some real arm-wrestles in Wales over the years and the last game at the Millennium stadium delivered only 22 points, but last year there was 69 points in France and in 2021 we had 62 points when these sides met in France and I think overs is the play here.
BET: 4 Units over 45.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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