This blog focuses on Super Rugby Pacific Week 8 from a betting angle, starting with projected handicaps, tracking markets moves and weather and finally a bet in each game.
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FIJIAN DRUA V CRUSADERS
Posted 04 April 10h01
A nice start to the week with unders never in doubt in Hamilton. On we march.
The Drua have been backed from +6.5 to +3.5 and listening to The Mossman and Pablo on last nights THE HANDICAP our live betting show the Drua look the business.
I m not going to mess around with the handicap and will take a straight win bet.
The points line is 60.5 and I have no feel there at this point.
BET: 3 units Drua win at 1.48/1 at Pokerbet
MOANA PASIFIKA V WARATAHS
Posted 03 April 23h53
The Waratahs opened up -2.5 but Moana have been backed into -1.5 favourites. I handicapped this Moana -4.5 and althugh it will be hard for them to match last weeks performance I think they can get the win.
The total points line is 66.5 and while sitting out for now I think tries will flow in this one.
BET: 3 units Moana Pasifika win at 0.89/1 at Pokerbet
CHIEFS v REDS
Posted 03 April 11h05
The handicap has been fairly stable for the top of the table clash with the Chiefs going from -11.5 to -13.5 and it has now seemingly settled at -12.5.
The points line opened at 57.5 and I was looking to go unders but took too long and it is down to 55.5 witha forecast of potential rain and high humidity.
The latest forecast doesn't look great and I am going to get involved on the under 55.5 and I am hoping this turns into an arm wrestle.
BET: 3 units under 55.5 points at 1/1 at Betxchange
WEATHER LINKS FOR SRP 8
Posted 02 April 14h16
Below are the weather links and current forecasts.
Chiefs v Reds, Friday 08h05, FMG Stadium, Waikato (hybrid), Cool and rain forecast before kick off
Moana Pasifika v Waratahs, Saturday 03h05, North Harbour Stadium, Auckland (Grass), Cool and Clear
Fiian Drua v Crusaders, Saturday 05h35, HFC Stadium, Suva, (Grass), Hot and fairly humid
Blues v Hurricanes, Saturday 08h05, Eden Park, Auckland (Grass, Hybrid), Mild, looks clear but some light showers about
Western Force v Highlanders, Saturday 10h35, HBF Park, Perth (Grass) - hot and clear
MARKET MOVES & POINT LINES
Posted 01 April 07h40
Below the latest handicaps and total points lines
Chiefs -13.5 v Reds, Points 57.5 - Chiefs backed from -11.5 to -13.5
Moana Pasifika -0.5 v Waratahs, Points 66.5 - Pasifika backed from +1.5 to -0.5
Fijian Drua +5.5 v Crusaders, Points 60.5
Blues -4.5 v Hurricanes, Points 56.6
Force -3.5 v Highlanders, Points 58.5
THE BOOKIES ARE OUT WITH EARLY LINES
Posted 31 March 08h39
The handicaps are out and are in brackets next to mine
Chiefs -10.5 (-11.5) v Reds
Moana Pasifika -4.5 (+1.5) v Waratahs - the biggest difference, I think money will come for Moana at these levels
Fijian Drua +8.5 (+6.5)v Crusaders
Blues -4.5 (-4.5) v Hurricanes
Force -6.5 (-3.5) v Highlanders
SRP WEEK 8 PROJECTED HANDICAPS
Posted 30 March 21h59
Below my handicap projections which I will compare with the bookmakers on Monday morning
Chiefs -10.5 v Reds
Moana Pasifika -4.5 v Waratahs
Fijian Drua +8.5 v Crusaders
Blues -4.5 v Hurricanes
Force -6.5* v Highlanders
*Typo on 1st post left out the minus
Bye in week 9 - The Force
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 7 WRAP AND BETTING UPDATE
Posted 30 March 21h51
There were just 4 matches this past weekend and we saw a massive upset with the Crusaders starting -23.5 at home to Moana Pasifika and getting well beaten.
I will be back later tonight with my projected handicaps for week 8.
SRP Week 7 results with handicap of winner
Hurricanes 57 Waratahs 12, Handicap -12.5 - a nice win for the blog with over 36.5 Canes points trotting up
Brumbies 34 Highlanders 27, Handicap -10.5 - we were on Brumbies 1-12 at 17/10 so a nice win
Crusaders 29 Pasifika 45, Handicap -23.5 - a massive upset and the blog's under 22.5 Pasifika points was in the bin early
Reds 28 Force 14, Handicap -6.5 - the blog bet was under 58.5 early in the week and the line started 51.5 so a nice win
The Reds go top
SRP Betting after week 7
