If the Lions are to make the United Rugby Championship play offs they will need a strong finish to the season and their next assignment comes at home to Cardiff on Saturday
Lions v Cardiff, Saturday 11th May, Johannesburg, KO 18:15 (South African time)
Referee: Eoghan Cross (Ireland)
Assistant referees: Aimee Barrett-Theron (South Africa) and Cwengile Jadezweni (South Africa)
TMO: Frank Murphy (Ireland)
Weather Forecast – Johannesburg
Lions:
The Lions are in eleventh place with a record of 7 wins and 8 defeats and they come into Round 16 5 points off a play off spot with this game, a home fixture against Glasgow and a visit to the Stormers still to come.
A 33-13 home defeat to Munster in Round 15 was a big blow to their play off hopes but the middle of the log remains very congested.
In earlier matches against Welsh opposition the Lions won 24-23 away to the Scarlets in Round 4, they beat the Dragons 49-24 in Johannesburg in Round 7 and went down 36-21 away to the Ospreys in Round 13.
In the outright betting the Lions are 160/1 shots to win the tournament with BoyleSports
Cardiff:
Cardiff finished the previous round just 1 place below the Lions on the log but given they have 6 points fewer their own play off hopes are over.
Cardiff haven't won in the URC since Round 8 although they have run some top sides pretty close and they are only 2 points behind the Ospreys in the Welsh Shield which is still very much up for grabs.
Earlier this season Cardiff lost to the Bulls 18-12 in a Round 4 home game but they beat the Stormers 31-24 at the Arms Park in Round 6.
Team News
Lions: 15 Quan Horn, 14 Richard Kriel, 13 Erich Cronje, 12 Marius Louw (c), 11 Edwill van der Merwe, 10 Sanele Nohamba, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Francke Horn, 7 Ruan Venter, 6 JC Pretorius, 5 Ruan Delport, 4 Willem Alberts, 3 Asenathi Ntlabakanye, 2 PJ Botha, 1 Ruan Dreyer
Replacements: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 JP Smith, 18 Conraad van Vuren, 19 Reinhard Nothnagel, 20 Emmanuel Tshituka, 21 Hanru Sirgel, 22 Jordan Hendrikse, 23 Gianni Lombard
Cardiff: 15 Cam Winnett, 14 Gabriel Hamer-Webb, 13 Mason Grady, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Theo Cabango, 10 Tinus de Beer, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Mackenzie Martin, 7 James Botham, 6 Ben Donnell, 5 Rory Thornton, 4 Seb Davies, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Evan Lloyd, 1 Rhys Carre
Replacements: 16 Liam Belcher, 17 Corey Domachowski, 18 Rhys Litterick, 19 Shane Lewis-Hughes, 20 Alun Lawrence, 21 Ellis Bevan, 22 Jacob Beetham, 23 Max Clark
The Betting,
Lions -16.5 points at 9/10
Cardiff +16.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I was shocked to see this line open -6.5 as I handicapped the game -16.5 and in the end sanity has prevailed and that is exactly where the bookies line is and if pressed I would still go for the Lions here, as Cardiff has been in really poor form and this game means far more to the home team who still have a chance of making the last 8.
Lions games against overseas opposition haven’t been as high scoring as one would expect of late, but I think this one is going to have plenty of points. The Total Points line is 56.5, but I am going to focus on Lions points which are currently 35.5.
I expect them to beat this line, hopefully with plenty of time still left in the game.
BET: 5 units Lions over 35.5 points at 17/20 at WSB
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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