We’re down to the final four teams in Super Rugby Pacific and one thing is for certain — a New Zealand franchise will be lifting the trophy. In this blog we recap the qualifier results as well as keep an eye on all things betting-related before making a selection in each semifinal.
Bet: Hurricanes v Blues
Posted 12 June 22h15
2 units Hurricanes -18.5 at 0.92/1 at Pokerbet
I’m feeling a little punch-drunk after this morning’s result, where the under 8.5 tries bet was beaten in the 80th minute.
To be fair, I had pretty much written the wager off at halftime, but a much quieter second half gave me some hope before it was cruelly snatched away right at the death.
As a result, I’m keeping my involvement fairly modest on this game as I don’t have a particularly strong read on it.
That being said, I’m happy enough to side with the weight of money and back the Hurricanes, who have been supported from -15.5 earlier in the week out to -18.5.
The total points line has also moved significantly, climbing from 61.5 to 63.5.
One thing I can say for certain is that I’ve learned my lesson about taking unders in Super Rugby. After recent experiences, I’ll be giving that market a wide berth this weekend.
Instead, I’ll trust the Hurricanes to justify their favouritism and cover the handicap.
Bet: Chiefs v Crusaders
Posted 11 June 16h37
4 units (1-5) under 8.5 tries at 17/20 at Pokerbet
The handicap market has been an interesting one to watch throughout the week.
I initially handicapped the game Chiefs -6.5, but there was solid support for the Crusaders in the early betting, with the line starting -5.5 and then moving in to around Crusaders -4.5 before drifting slightly back out to -5.5 at most bookmakers.
The total points line is currently sitting at 59.5 and, while we did see some high-scoring rugby in the playoffs last weekend, I’m not convinced this game follows the same script.
I reckon 3 pointers will be snapped up in this one and for that reason I would rather than get involved in the tries market, rather than the points.
This feels like a game where territory, pressure and playoff intensity could become important factors and I would be surprised if it completely runs away from the defences.
For that reason, I’m backing under 8.5 tries and making it my strongest play of the weekend.
Line Ups and Latest Betting
Posted 11 June 09h43
Here are the team line ups and the latest betting
Chiefs -4.5 v Crusaders, Points 58.5
More money for the visitors now in from +6.5
Chiefs: 15 Isaac Hutchinson, 14 Liam Coombes-Fabling, 13 Lalakai Foketi, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 Kyren Taumoefolau, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Simon Parker, 7 Luke Jacobson (captain), 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Sione Ahio, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Ollie Norris.
Replacements: 16 Brodie McAlister, 17 Jared Proffit, 18 George Dyer, 19 Seuseu Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 20 Kaylum Boshier, 21 Xavier Roe, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Leroy Carter.
Crusaders: 15 Johnny McNicholl, 14 Chay Fihaki, 13 Braydon Ennor, 12 David Havili (captain), 11 Sevu Reece, 10 Taha Kemara, 9 Noah Hotham, 8 Christian Lio-Willie, 7 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Jamie Hannah, 4 Antonio Shalfoon, 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Finlay Brewis.
Replacements: 16 Manumau Letiu, 17 Jack Sexton, 18 George Bower, 19 Tahlor Cahill, 20 Dom Gardiner, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rivez Reihana, 23 Macca Springer.
Referee: Angus Gardner
Assistant referees: George Myers, Matt Kellahan
TMO: Graham Cooper
Hurricanes -17.5 v Blues, Points 61.5
Canes went from -16.5 to -15.5 suggesting money for the Blues but that has reversed with clear support for the Hurricanes
Hurricanes: 15 Callum Harkin, 14 Josh Moorby, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett (captain), 11 Fehi Fineanganofo, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Brad Shields, 5 Warner Dearns, 4 Caleb Delany, 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Asafo Aumua, 1 Xavier Numia.
Replacements: 16 Raymond Tuputupu, 17 Siale Lauaki, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Isaia Walker-Leawere, 20 Brayden Iose, 21 Ere Enari, 22 Jone Rova, 23 Kini Naholo.
Blues: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Cole Forbes, 13 AJ Lam, 12 Xavi Taele, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Stephen Perofeta, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Anton Segner, 6 Torian Barnes, 5 Sam Darry, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu (captain), 3 Marcel Renata, 2 Bradley Slater, 1 Ofa Tu’ungafasi.
Replacements: 16 Eli Oudenryn, 17 Mason Tupaea, 18 Flyn Yates, 19 Josh Beehre, 20 Che Clark, 21 Taufa Funaki, 22 Pita Ahki, 23 Payton Spencer.
Referee: Ben O’Keeffe
Assistant referee: Todd Petrie, Warwick Lahmert
TMO: Richard Kelly
Handicaps are up
Posted 07 June 13h11
The bookies are out early and are pretty much aligned with my projections (in brackets)
Chiefs -5.5 (-6.5) v Crusaders
Hurricanes -16.5 (-14.5) v Blues
Super Rugby Pacific Qualifier Results
Hurricanes 66 Brumbies 12
The Hurricanes turned in a dominant performance against the Brumbies and, in a game where they started around -16.5 favourites, they made short work of the handicap.
Personally, I thought this might be a tighter encounter and went for under 7.5 tries, but that was never really in the hunt as the Hurricanes ran riot.
Crusaders 52 Blues 31
I got on the early Crusaders -6.5 and also tipped the -9.5 in my Friday newsletter.
It was another entertaining high-scoring clash, but the Crusaders comfortably covered the handicap and once again looked extremely dangerous at home in Christchurch.
Chiefs 46 Reds 24
The Chiefs traded at 14.5 before kick off and they ultimately proved too strong for a Reds side that I thought could stay a bit closer.
Once again I went unders on total tries, taking under 8.5, but it turned into another high-scoring affair with 70 points scored in the match.
Semifinal Fixtures and Predicted Handicaps
- Chiefs -6.5 vs Crusaders
- Hurricanes -14.5 vs Blues
The above handicaps are my projections and will be compared to the bookies lines later today
Early Thoughts
The Chiefs versus Crusaders clash already looks like one of the games of the season. The Crusaders have timed their run nicely and are starting to resemble the ruthless playoff side we’ve become accustomed to over the years.
The Hurricanes, meanwhile, look the standout side left in the competition and their demolition of the Brumbies was hugely impressive. The big question is whether the Blues can lift after a physically demanding trip to Christchurch.