This blog focuses on Super Rugby Pacific Week 8 from a betting angle, starting with projected handicaps, tracking markets moves and weather and finally a bet in each game.
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JOIN ME IN WEEK 9
Posted 05 April 09h46
A decent week so far with 3 out of 4 landed and lets hope the Force and Highlanders can bring home the overs.
The Week 9 blog will be up Sunday night and a reminder I send out a betting newsletter every week if you would like to stay in touch.
FORCE v HIGHLANDERS
Posted 04 April 23h43
This handicap has been Force -3.5 most of the week and I am expecting them to beat the handicap.
I am going to get involved in the points though where Southpaw has highlighted over 57.5 in the forum.
The line has moved out a bit but I am still keen to get involved at 59.5 in what should be good conditions.
BET: 4 units over 59.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
BLUES v HURRICANES
Posted 04 April 16h12
This handicap has been stable around he Blues -4.5 mark all week and that is exacly where I set it.
If pushed I would side with the Hurricanes but my attention is instead on the points line which is currently 56.5.
The weather should be ok but there are some showers around earlier in the day and even if conditions good I am leaning unders in a game that is almost must win for both sides.
BET: 3 units under 56.5 points at 0.97/1 at Betxchange
FIJIAN DRUA V CRUSADERS
Posted 04 April 10h01
A nice start to the week with unders never in doubt in Hamilton. On we march.
The Drua have been backed from +6.5 to +3.5 and listening to The Mossman and Pablo on last nights THE HANDICAP our live betting show the Drua look the business.
I m not going to mess around with the handicap and will take a straight win bet.
The points line is 60.5 and I have no feel there at this point.
BET: 3 units Drua win at 1.48/1 at Pokerbet
MOANA PASIFIKA V WARATAHS
Posted 03 April 23h53
The Waratahs opened up -2.5 but Moana have been backed into -1.5 favourites. I handicapped this Moana -4.5 and althugh it will be hard for them to match last weeks performance I think they can get the win.
The total points line is 66.5 and while sitting out for now I think tries will flow in this one.
BET: 3 units Moana Pasifika win at 0.89/1 at Pokerbet
CHIEFS v REDS
Posted 03 April 11h05
The handicap has been fairly stable for the top of the table clash with the Chiefs going from -11.5 to -13.5 and it has now seemingly settled at -12.5.
The points line opened at 57.5 and I was looking to go unders but took too long and it is down to 55.5 witha forecast of potential rain and high humidity.
The latest forecast doesn't look great and I am going to get involved on the under 55.5 and I am hoping this turns into an arm wrestle.
BET: 3 units under 55.5 points at 1/1 at Betxchange
WEATHER LINKS FOR SRP 8
Posted 02 April 14h16
Below are the weather links and current forecasts.
Chiefs v Reds, Friday 08h05, FMG Stadium, Waikato (hybrid), Cool and rain forecast before kick off
Moana Pasifika v Waratahs, Saturday 03h05, North Harbour Stadium, Auckland (Grass), Cool and Clear
Fiian Drua v Crusaders, Saturday 05h35, HFC Stadium, Suva, (Grass), Hot and fairly humid
Blues v Hurricanes, Saturday 08h05, Eden Park, Auckland (Grass, Hybrid), Mild, looks clear but some light showers about
Western Force v Highlanders, Saturday 10h35, HBF Park, Perth (Grass) - hot and clear
MARKET MOVES & POINT LINES
Posted 01 April 07h40
Below the latest handicaps and total points lines
Chiefs -13.5 v Reds, Points 57.5 - Chiefs backed from -11.5 to -13.5
Moana Pasifika -0.5 v Waratahs, Points 66.5 - Pasifika backed from +1.5 to -0.5
Fijian Drua +5.5 v Crusaders, Points 60.5
Blues -4.5 v Hurricanes, Points 56.6
Force -3.5 v Highlanders, Points 58.5
THE BOOKIES ARE OUT WITH EARLY LINES
Posted 31 March 08h39
The handicaps are out and are in brackets next to mine
Chiefs -10.5 (-11.5) v Reds
Moana Pasifika -4.5 (+1.5) v Waratahs - the biggest difference, I think money will come for Moana at these levels
Fijian Drua +8.5 (+6.5)v Crusaders
Blues -4.5 (-4.5) v Hurricanes
Force -6.5 (-3.5) v Highlanders
SRP WEEK 8 PROJECTED HANDICAPS
Posted 30 March 21h59
Below my handicap projections which I will compare with the bookmakers on Monday morning
Chiefs -10.5 v Reds
Moana Pasifika -4.5 v Waratahs
Fijian Drua +8.5 v Crusaders
Blues -4.5 v Hurricanes
Force -6.5* v Highlanders
*Typo on 1st post left out the minus
Bye in week 9 - The Force
SUPER RUGBY PACIFIC WEEK 7 WRAP AND BETTING UPDATE
Posted 30 March 21h51
There were just 4 matches this past weekend and we saw a massive upset with the Crusaders starting -23.5 at home to Moana Pasifika and getting well beaten.
I will be back later tonight with my projected handicaps for week 8.
SRP Week 7 results with handicap of winner
Hurricanes 57 Waratahs 12, Handicap -12.5 - a nice win for the blog with over 36.5 Canes points trotting up
Brumbies 34 Highlanders 27, Handicap -10.5 - we were on Brumbies 1-12 at 17/10 so a nice win
Crusaders 29 Pasifika 45, Handicap -23.5 - a massive upset and the blog's under 22.5 Pasifika points was in the bin early
Reds 28 Force 14, Handicap -6.5 - the blog bet was under 58.5 early in the week and the line started 51.5 so a nice win
The Reds go top
SRP Betting after week 7
