In this blog Brent Graham keeps a close eye on all 5 fixtures taking place from the 28th of February to the 1st of March. He starts with projecting the handicaps, tracks market moves and weather and finally places his bet.
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Our regular rugby punters have their say in our forum, all welcome
FORCE V REDS
Posted 01 March 08h05
On the Chiefs -15.5 and they win by 15, I expected nothing more LOL.
Onto the final game and the handicap has been fairly stable all week at around Force +8.5. I don't have a view on that and will look to the points.
Points are flowing but man I never thought I would see 66.5 in an Aussie derby - I am going to stick my neck out with an unders play.
The Week 4 blog with handicap projections will be up and running on Sunday night.
BET: 3 units under 66.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
HURRICANES V BLUES
Posted 28 Feb 22h19
This handicap has been moving from +3.5 Canes to +4.5 and back all week.
The points line is 55.5 and that looks about right.
This is a game where I am battling for a pick and in the end I am going with a bet suggested by "The Understaker' Hanrick Swart on Thursday nights live chat, namely either team to win by 7 points or less.
BET: 2 units "either team by 7 or less + the draw" at 31/20 at Betxchange
BATTERED, BRUISED BUT UNBOWED
Posted 28 Feb 22h12
After a nice rest I am back for Saturdays fixtures the 1st of which is a 05h35 kickoff on Saturday morning.
CHIEFS V BRUMBIES
Money has steadily come for the Chiefs all week and the early -12.5 is now -16.5 in places.
I almost pressed the button at -13.5 but hesitated and the best I can get now is -15.5.
The toal points line is set at 60.5 and with conditions good and an afternoon kickoff I expect that to come under threat.
In the end though I am going to keep it simple and back the Chiefs minus. Reading form lines in rugby is not the same as horse racing but the fact they beat the Blues by 11 away and the Crusaders by 25 at home as me believing this could be a 20+ win for the home team
BET: 3 units Chiefs -15.5 at 10/11 at Sportingbet
STICK A FORK IN ME I AM DONE
Posted 28 Feb 12h45
Wow I cannot buy a winner at the moment. How Highlanders over 36.5 points miss after 31 1st half points I have no idea. The only thing that surprised me was that the Punting Gods didn't allow a late uncoverted try to really shaft me.
The Waratahs were awful and I was pulling for the Drua by the end.
Not quite done and will be back with sone plays on saturdays fixtures but as I am sure you can imagin confidence is rather low.
WARATAHS V FIJIAN DRUA
Posted 28 Feb 00h09
I capped this game -9.5 Tahs and after opening -8.5 the line has moved to -11.5 or -12.5 depending on where you shop.
I am firmly in the Waratahs camp but prefer the points line to the handicap.
I have seen their points line at 38.5 so am going to take the 36.5 still on offer.
BET: 4 units Waratahs over 36.5 points at 17/20 at WSB
MOANA PASIFIKA V HIGHLANDERS
Posted 28 Feb 00h00
This handicap opened +8.5, went down to +6.5 and is now back to +8.5 and even +9.5 in places. I set the handicap at +9.5 so I am not seeing alot of value although leaning Highanders after their good win against the Blues.
The Total Points line is 62.5 and Highlanders points is 36.5. Pasifika have conceded over 40 points in both starts and I think the Highlanders can build up a big total.
BET: 4 units Highlanders over 36.5 points at 10/11 at Sportingbet
WEATHER LINKS FOR WEEK 3
Posted 27 Feb 08h16
The handicaps are still fairly stable although there appears to have been some money for the Highlanders who are back to the opening -8.5. It looks like the Waratahs and Chiefs are also finding support.
On the points front the line has moved to 60.5 from 58.5 in the Tahs v Drua game.
Below are links to the weather and the latest forecast (times are in South Africa)
Moana Pasifika v Highlanders, Friday 08h05 - North Harbour Stadium, Auckland (Grass) - clear conditions expected
Waratahs v Drua, Friday 10h35, Allainz Stadium, Sydney (Matrix "Ready to Play" Turf) - clear conditions expected
Chiefs v Brumbies Saturday 05h35, FMG Stadium, Waikato (hybrid) - clear, some cloud but should be good
Hurricanes v Blues Saturday 08h05, SKY Stadium, Wellington (Grass) - clear but high winds forecast
Force v Reds, Saturday 10h35, HBF Park, Perth (Grass) - hot but clear
POINTS LINES ARE OUT
Posted 25 Feb 07h32
Not alot of handicap movement although Moana Pasifika have received support and are +6.5 from + 8.5
Here are the points lines and latest caps
Moana Pasifika +6.5 v Highlanders 61.5
Waratahs -9.5 v Drua 58.5
Chiefs -13.5 v Brumbies 57.5
Hurricanes +3.5 v Blues 54.5
Force +8.5 v Reds 62.5
WEEK 3 HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 24 Feb 07h14
Below are Betxchanges handicaps in brackets next to mine
Moana Pasifika +9.5 (+8.5) v Highlanders
Waratahs -9.5 (-8.5) v Drua
Chiefs -13.5 (-13.5) v Brumbies
Hurricanes +4.5 v (+4.5) Blues
Force +6.5 (+8.5) v Reds
Very much aligned with my handicaps so no obvious early moves this week.
CHIEFS SHORTEN TO CLEAR FAVOURITES
Posted 23 Feb 22h07
It was another brilliant showing by the Chiefs as they comfortably beat the -8.5 handicap against the Crusaders in Hamilton. Readers of the blog would have been alerted to the early -3.5 on offer a price that didn't last.
Here is the lates betting at WSB
- Chiefs – 2/1
- Blues – 11/4
- Crusaders – 6/1
- Hurricanes – 17/2
- Reds – 9/1
- Brumbies – 10/1
- Waratahs – 11/1
- Fijian Drua – 33/1
- Highlanders – 33/1
- Western Force – 40/1
- Moana Pasifika – 250/1
Below are this weeks fixtures and my handicap projections which will be compared against tghe bookies opening lines
Moana Pasifika +9.5 v Highlanders
Waratahs -9.5 v Drua
Chiefs -13.5 v Brumbies
Hurricanes +4.5 v Blues
Force +6.5 v Reds
