Thursday's Rugby World Cup action comes from Pool A where New Zealand clash with Uruguay in Lyon and the All Blacks are overwhelming favourites to rubber stamp their place in the quarter finals.
New Zealand v Uruguay, Thursday 5th October, Lyon, KO 21:00 (South African time)
Referee: Wayne Barnes (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU), Jordan Way (RA)
TMO: Marius Jonker (SARU)
Weather Forecast - Lyon
New Zealand:
Coming into the final round of pool matches France, who take on Italy on Friday, top this group with 13 points, New Zealand and Italy both have 10, Uruguay have 5 but are out of contention and Namibia failed to earn a log point.
Since suffering a first ever RWC pool stage defeat in their opening match of the tournament to host nation France, 27-13 in Paris, the All Blacks have rattled up a barrage of points.
In their second outing they thrashed Namibia 71-3, covering a 69.5 point handicap for minus backers with 11 tries scored. Last weekend they dished out an even bigger hiding to Italy, 96-17 at this venue with another 14 tries and a pre-match handicap line of around 27.5 points smashed to pieces.
The All Blacks are firmly on course for a quarter final against either Ireland, South Africa or Scotland and they are now trading at around 3.75/1 to claim a fourth RWC title with BoyleSports and they priced at 14/10 to reach the final and even money to reach the semi's.
Uruguay:
Uruguay lost both of their opening matches but they performed with credit from their displays in going down 37-17 to Italy (24.5 points start on the handicap) and then 27-12 to France (51.5 points start on the handicap).
Last week they came up against Namibia in what was always their most realistic opportunity for a victory and although the margin of victory (36-26) came up about 7 points short of the main handicap line, they held their nerve after conceding the first 14 points of the match and were full value for a 5 pointer.
Team News
New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Luke Jacobson, 7 Sam Cane (captain), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ofa Tu’ungafasi.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Ethan Blackadder, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Caleb Clarke
Uruguay: 15 Rodrigo Silva, 14 Gaston Mieres, 13 Tomas Inciarte, 12 Andres Vilaseca (captain), 11 Nicolas Freitas, 10 Felipe Etcheverry, 9 Santiago Arata, 8 Manuel Diana, 7 Lucas Bianchi, 6 Manuel Ardao, 5 Manuel Leindekar, 4 Ignacio Dotti, 3 Diego Arbelo, 2 German Kessler, 1 Mateo Sanguinetti
Substitutes: 16 Guillermo Pujadas, 17 Matias Benitez, 18 Ignacio Peculo, 19 Juan Manuel Rodriguez, 20 Santiago Civetta, 21 Agustin Ormaechea, 22 Felipe Berchesi, 23 Juan Manuel Alonso
The Betting -
New Zealand -65.5 points at 9/10
Uruguay +66.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
This handicap has been fairly stable all week which is unusual for a game with such a big handicap. I projected -65.5 so don't see any realy value in the handicap and the points line also looks well set at 79.5 as I am not expecting New Zealand to play with the same intensity as they did against Italy.
Rather than bet for the sake of it I have requested one of our local bookmakers to boost a couple of try scorers bets I like and these will be posted on Thursday morning.
Update: 10h00 06 October
In games where I don't fancy anything strong I turn to more exotic markets and there are a couple of try scorer plays I like and Boylesports have agreed to give 2 of my fancies a boost (as these are boosts there is a maximum win limit and these are largely what I would call entertainment bets)
BET: 3 units Leicester Fainaanku to score 2 or more tries at 1/1 at Boylesports*
This is generally priced at 8/10 and I expect the big winger to get plenty of chances and to hopefully bank this one in the 1st 60 minutes.
BET: 0.5 unit Finlay Christie Last Try Score at 22/1 (was 18/1) at Boylesports*
Number 9’s have been scoring freely against the weaker teams and there should be plenty of gaps when Christie comes on.
*Click here to open an account at Boylesports
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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