The final action in Round 3 of the Six Nations comes from Lille on Sunday where France are huge favourites for their clash with Italy.
France v Italy, Sunday 25th February, Lille, KO 17:00 (South African time)
Referee: Christophe Ridley (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU), Craig Evans (WRU)
TMO: Ian Tempest (RFU)
Weather Forecast – Lille
France
After a disappointing opening round France put themselves on the board with a 20-16 win over Scotland at Murrayfield in Round 2. They scored 2 tries to 1 but it was only in the 70th minute that they led for the first time when Louis Bielle-Barrey went over for a try duly converted by Ramos. That was not the end of the drama as the Scots thought they had a winning try at the death but the TMO ruled in favour of Les Bleus.
France took on Ireland in Marseille in Round 1 and although they were 4.5 point favourites on the handicap they finished well beaten, 38-17. Their cause wasn't helped with Paul Willemse sent off for picking up 2 yellows In the first half. Damian Penaud and Paul Gabrillagues scored tries for France either side of half time whilst Ireland ran in 5 tries and landed a bonus point.
France met Italy in the pool stage of RWC2023 and they won 60-7.
France now have 4 log points and they finished Round 2 in fourth spot, 6 points shy of log leaders Ireland, 4 behind England and 1 behind the Scots.
In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports France are currently 18.5/1 to win the title and they are 13/20 to finish in the top 2.
Fixtures & Results: R1 Ireland (h) lost 38-17, R2 Scotland (a) won 20-16, R3 Italy (h), R4 Wales (a), R5 England (h)
Italy
Italy went down 36-0 to Ireland in Dublin in Round 2, a margin of defeat just outisde of the main handicap which had been set at 33.5 points.
In Round 1 Italy were given around 14.5 point favourites on the handicap for their home fixture against England in Rome. They threatened a surprise when leading 17-14 at half time but England hit back to edge it 27-24. Italy scored 3 tries to England's 2 and earned a losing bonus point.
Italy lost all five of the Six Nations matches in 2023 with their best performance seeing them run France close in a Round 1 home fixture (lost 29-24). Their last 6N win came in Wales in the final round of matches in 2022, prior to that their previous 36 matches in this competition had all ended in defeat.
In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports Italy are currently 1 / 4 to finish bottom of the standings
Fixtures & Results: R1 England (h) lost 27-24, R2 Ireland (a) lost 36-0, R3 France (a), R4 Scotland (h), R5 Wales (a)
Team News
France: 15 Thomas Ramos, 14 Damian Penaud, 13 Gaël Fickou, 12 Jonathan Danty, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 François Cros, 7 Charles Ollivon (c), 6 Paul Boudehent, 5 Posolo Tuilagi, 4 Cameron Woki, 3 Uini Atonio, 2 Peato Mauvaka, 1 Cyril Baille
Replacements: 16 Julien Marchand, 17 Sebastien Taofifenua, 18 Dorian Aldegheri, 19 Romain Taofifenua, 20 Alexandre Roumat, 21 Esteban Abadie, 22 Nolann Le Garrec, 23 Yoram Moefana
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Tommaso Menoncello, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Federico Mori, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Ross Vintcent, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Riccardo Favretto, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Giosuè Zilocchi, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Matteo Canali, 20 Andrea Zambonin, 21 Manuel Zuliani, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Leonardo Marin
Head to Head (6 Nations Only)
2023 6N Rome Italy 24-29 France (Tries 2-4 )
2022 6N Paris France 37–10 Italy (Tries 5-1)
2021 6N Rome Italy 10-50 France (Tries 1-7)
2020 6N Paris France 35–22 Italy (Tries 5-3)
2019 6N Rome Italy 14-25 France (Tries 1-3 )
2018 6N Marseille France 34–17 England (Tries 3-1)
2017 6N Rome Italy 18-40 France (Tries 2-4 )
2016 6N Paris France 23–21 Italy (Tries 3-2)
The Betting
France -26.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Italy +26.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Italy really let me down against Ireland where I backed them to score over 12.5 points and they failed to trouble the scorers. I am not going to give up on their attacking flair though and I think against this French side they will have more chances and I am going to follow the advice of The Understaker on THE HANDICAP, our Rugby Betting Show and back Italy to score at least two tries.
If pushed I would probably go Italy on the plus handicap, but not with any confidence and I am happy to restrict my interest to the total tries bet.
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BET: 4 Units, Italy over 1.5 tries at 17/20 at Pokerbet*
*Pokerbet are generally 1st to market with rugby points lines – click here to open an account
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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