After opening their defence of the Six Nations title with a cracking win Ireland are now red hot outright favourites as they prepare for a Round 2 clash with Italy in Dublin on Sunday
Ireland v Italy, Sunday 11th February, Dublin, KO 17:00 (South African time)
Referee: Pierre Brousset (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (FFR), Luc Ramos (FFR)
TMO: Eric Gauzins (FFR)
Weather Forecast – Dublin
Ireland
Ireland (+4,5 points on the handicap) beat France 38-17 in Marseille in Round 1. Les Bleus had a man sent off in the first half and Ireland ran in 5 tries to land a bonus point and finish the round at the top of the standings. Gibson-Park and Beirne scored tries in the first half and Nash, Sheehan and Kelleher went over in the second. Crowley landed all 5 conversions and a penalty.
In 2023 Ireland pulled off a Six Nations Grand Slam, finishing 7 points clear of France at the top of the standings and their clash with Italy in Rome ended in a 34-20 victory.
In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports Ireland are now red hot favourites at 1 / 5 to win the title, 0.72/1 for the Triple Crown and also 0.72/1 to land another Grand Slam
Fixtures & Results: R1 France (a) won 38-17, R2 Italy (h), R3 Wales (h), R4 England (a), R5 Scotland (h)
Italy
Italy were given around 14.5 point favourites on the handicap for their Round 1 home fixture against England in Rome. They threatened a surprise when leading 17-14 at half time but England hit back to edge it 27-24. Italy scored 3 tries to England's 2 through Garbisi and Allan in the first half and late score from Ioane earned a losing bonus point.
Italy lost all five of the Six Nations matches in 2023 with their best performance seeing them run France close in a Round 1 home fixture (lost 29-24). Their last 6N win came in Wales in the final round of matches in 2022, prior to that their previous 36 matches in this competition had all ended in defeat.
In the outright betting markets with BoyleSports Italy are currently 1 / 4 to finish bottom of the standings
Fixtures & Results: R1 England (h) lost 27-24, R2 Ireland (a), R3 France (a), R4 Scotland (h), R5 Wales (a)
Team News
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Calvin Nash, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Stuart McCloskey, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Craig Casey, 8 Jack Conan, 7 Caelan Doris, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Ronan Kelleher, 17 Jeremy Loughman, 18 Tom O’Toole, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Josh van der Flier, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Harry Byrne, 23 Jordan Larmour.
Italy: 15 Ange Capuozzo, 14 Lorenzo Pani, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Michele Lamaro (captain), 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Alessandro Izekor, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Pietro Ceccarelli, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosue Zilocchi, 19 Andrea Zambonin, 20 Ross Vintcent, 21 Martin Page-Relo, 22 Tommaso Allan, 23 Federico Mori
Head to Head (6 Nations Only)
2023 6N Rome Italy 20-34 Ireland (Tries 2-5 )
2022 6N Dublin Ireland 57-6 Italy (Tries 9-0)
2021 6N Rome Italy 10-48 Ireland (Tries 1-6 )
2020 6N Dublin Ireland 50-17 Italy (Tries 7-2)
2019 6N Rome Italy 16-26 Ireland (Tries 2-4)
2018 6N Dublin Ireland 56-19 Italy (Tries 8-3)
2017 6N Rome Italy 10-63 Ireland (Tries 1-9)
2016 6N Dublin Ireland 58-15 Italy (Tries 9-2)
The Betting
Ireland -33.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Italy +33.5 points at 9/10 widely available
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I handicapped this game -27.5 but was well out with the bookies coming out -35.5. In theory I should back Italy plus and I may yet do so but opposing this Irish team is not something I will do lightly and I suspect I erred with my handicap.
This may be a game for a points bet and I will be back towards the end of the week with my play.
Keep an eye on our forum thread to see what other punters think and if you enjoy your rugby betting sign up for our free newsletter here
Update: 9 Feb 09h20
The Understaker was firmly in Italys camp on last nights The Handicap show and Crowe Tips and myself were nodding our heads in agreement. The handicap has come in a couple of points to +33.5 Italy from +35.5.
The angle we settled on was overs on Italy points the logic being that this is a much more attacking Italy team than in years gone by and even if they take a hammering there are opportunities for consolation tries.
I am hoping for a steady start with a penalty or 2 hopefully followed by a couple of tries.
BET: 5 units Italy over 12.5 points at 17/20 at Pokerbet*
*These guys are out early with points lines – click here to open an account – oh yes they also do Poker
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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