Johannesburg stages the Round 3 Rugby Championship clash between South Africa and New Zealand on Saturday, the first of a double header between the teams, the outcome of which will go a long way to deciding who wins the title.
South Africa v New Zealand, Saturday 31st August, Johannesburg, KO 17:00 (South African time)
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)
Assistant Referees: Matthew Carley (RFU), Jordan Way (RA)
TMO: Brian MacNeice (IRFU)
Weather Forecast – Johannesburg
Rugby Championship 2024 Outright Betting
Following the Round 2 results the outright betting has South Africa are 1 / 4 favourites to win the Rugby Championship title with New Zealand at 3/1, Argentina are 18/1 and Australia are 750/1 (Prices World Sports Betting).
South Africa:
The Boks top the standings after back to back wins over the Wallabies in Australia. In Round 2 in Perth they came out on top 30-12, covering a pre-match handicap that settled at around 12.5 points. Conditions were far from ideal but South Africa scored 4 unanswered tries from Fassi, Van Staden and a brace from Marx.
In the opening round in Brisbane the Boks were even more convincing winners, 33-7, again covering a minus handicap of around 10.5 points. They scored 5 tries (Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph Du Toit , Kurt-Lee Arendse twice and Kwagga Smith) and conceded just one which came right at the death.
In the 2023 Rugby Championship South Africa started with a 43-12 win over the Wallabies at Loftus. They went down 35-20 to the All Blacks in Auckland and finished up with a 22-21 victory over Argentina in Joburg to finish as runners up.
After this South Africa will host the All Blacks again, this time in Cape Town. In Round 5 they will be in Argentina and their final match will see them host Los Pumas in Nelspruit.
New Zealand:
The All Blacks first two matches came at home to Argentina and delivered vastly contrasting results. In the opening round in Wellington with the defending champions starting as favourites on the handicap at around 16.5 points, they fluffed their lines and slipped to a first defeat under Scott Robertson, eventually going down 38-30.
In Round 2 in Auckland New Zealand bounced back and in some style, running out 42-10 winners (35-3 half time), scoring 6 tries (McKenzie, Savea, Clarke, a brace from Jordan and Beauden Barrett) despite wet conditions.
The All Blacks won the shortened 2023 Rugby Championship, beating Argentina 41-12 in Mendoza, the Springboks 35-20 in Auckland and the Wallabies 38-7 in Melbourne.
Looking ahead to the rest of this tournament after the second contest against the Boks in Cape Town New Zealand will visit the Wallabies in Round 5 before hosting the same opponent in the return in the final round.
Team News
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Cobus Reinach, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 6 Siya Kolisi (captain), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Handre Pollard
New Zealand: 15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane, 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams.
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Samipeni Finau, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Mark Tele’a
Recent Head to Head
2023 RWC Final Paris New Zealand 11-12 South Africa
2023 RWC (WU) Twickenham New Zealand 7-35 South Africa
2023 RC Auckland New Zealand 35-20 South Africa
2022 RC Johannesburg South Africa 23–35 New Zealand
2022 RC Nelspruit South Africa 26-10 New Zealand
2021 RC Gold Coast (Aus) New Zealand 29-31 South Africa
2021 RC Townsville (Aus) New Zealand 19-17 South Africa
2019 RWC Yokohama New Zealand 23-13 South Africa
2019 RC Wellington New Zealand 16-16 South Africa
The Betting -
South Africa -6.5 points at 9/10
New Zealand +7.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
The handicap for this game is very much where it started at -7.5 SA but that doesn’t tell the full story and there has been a bit of movement this week. There was some -8.5 available early on suggesting money for the Boks but after the South Africa team announcement the line came in to -5.5. With news that Etzebeth is fit and in the squad the line is pretty much back to where it started.
The points line is 49.5 and last time the teams played here New Zealand won 35-23 for a 58 point total. I am going to stay out of the points for now but am leaning overs and will post any additional bets in this preview.
As kick off approaches I am getting the feeling that this is going to be a tight one and my early play is that neither team, wins this by more than 7 points
BET: 2 units “Winning 8+ Margin” either team by 7 or less including draw at 1.38/1 at Betxchange
Given I fancy a tight game it makes sense to also have a nibble on the draw which last happened 8 matches and 5 years ago in this fixture.
BET: 0.5 units the draw at 25/1 at WSB
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Posted 31 August 15h16
The points line is fairly stable at 50.5 and I can confirm conditions are good. I just can’t bring myself to pull the trigger as have a feeling this could be a game at high pace but dominated by defence.
I am going to take a couple of 1st and Last try scorer plays
BET: 0.5 units Perenera FTS at 22/1 at WSB
In typical srummy fashion I can see him running support after a breakout and taking that final pass.
BET: 0.5 units Marx LTS at 12/1 at WSB
Hopefully the Boks rolling maul is in business late in the game
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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